Now that the confetti is swept away, the champagne bottles are popped, the tears are dry and the Oklahoma City Thunder are wearing sunglasses to hide the hangover, it’s time for the NBA off-season.
Surely, the Thunder will take a moment to relish in the glory of victory, but they won’t forget how they got here in the first place — and neither will the rest of the NBA.
Oklahoma City built its potentially dynastic championship core in the heat of the summer, hoarding draft picks, making savvy selections, moving on from a core of Paul George and Russell Westbrook to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and eventually swinging deals around the edges to force open their title window. Championship trophies are hoisted in June, but they’re won in July and August.
There are also 29 other teams to worry about, each glaring at the Thunder title with envy and a desire to do nothing more than improve. For some, it’ll be about drafting that franchise stalwart set to define the team for the next decade. For others, it’ll be about making the most of their salary cap to match the shrewdness of Sam Presti and Co. — and for more than a few, it’ll be about swallowing a bitter pill and reshaping entirely.
So, without taking a second breath after the end of a dramatic NBA season, here’s a look at the storylines set to define what could be a transformative off-season.
Will Thunder make another move to cement dynasty?
Let’s start things off with the champs. Last season, after a second-round upset at the hands of the Dallas Mavericks, the Thunder addressed their needs by signing free-agent centre Isaiah Hartenstein to a three-year, $87 million contract while trading for defensive stopper Alex Caruso. Those moves gave them the gaudy title of pre-season favourites — and they eventually made good on their promise by bringing Oklahoma City the glory it hadn’t yet tasted.
It’s uncommon to say about a championship team, but there’s room to keep building and growing for this Thunder side, and additional moves to keep supplanting their young core of Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren aren’t out of the realm of possibility. They could use additional help at the wing, and still have a treasure trove of picks to make it happen. One ring may just be the start of the first dynasty since the Golden State Warriors.
How does Haliburton injury affect Pacers’ timeline?
One win away from glory, but suddenly the Larry O’Brien looks farther away than ever before. The Indiana Pacers put up an incredible fight in the NBA Finals, and coming into Game 7, regardless of the outcome, many considered them to be one of the teams in the East in the best position going forward.
But one injury can change everything — just ask the Celtics (more on them later). A gut-wrenching Achilles tear for superstar guard Tyrese Haliburton effectively stripped the team of its leader, pace-setter and identity in one fell swoop. The recovery timeline essentially sidelines Haliburton for the entirety of next season, meaning that Pacers basketball will have to look wildly different from what fans came to love throughout their odds-defying playoff run.
The Pacers currently sit $27 million below the first apron and $39 million below the second, meaning that there’s still ample room for the Pacers to re-adjust if they want to continue contending in what projects to be a weakened Eastern Conference. But there’s no such thing as replacing Haliburton, even in the aggregate. They’ll have a big decision to make concerning centre Myles Turner — who is set to hit free agency — and still have a solid young group that could be packaged for upgrades over the summer. But this now becomes a question of whether it’s even worthwhile putting more chips on the table ahead of a year without their superstar.
How will new Lakers ownership affect off-season re-tool?
Everything in Laker Land is pointing toward a new era. If the Luka Doncic trade wasn’t enough, the Lakers got involved in another massive transaction last week, with the Buss Family — the team’s owners since 1979 — selling the team to Los Angeles Dodgers owner Mark Walter at an eye-watering $10 billion valuation.
Under Buss ownership, the Lakers were surprisingly frugal, paying their superstars well but not living up to the otherwise rich identity you would assume comes with that global of a brand. According to ESPN’s Bobby Marks, since 2013, the Lakers have spent the eighth-most in the league in salaries and tax. Decisions on the open market, like losing Alex Caruso in free agency in 2020 or missing out on Tyronn Lue in 2019, may have stemmed from the Buss family’s inability to compete financially with richer owners. If the Dodgers are any indicator, that shouldn’t be a problem for this new Lakers regime.
As they move from the LeBron James era to Doncic, and with a smattering of holes littered throughout the roster, will the change in ownership give the Lakers a renewed willingness to spend — and spend big?
Will the Bucks trade Giannis?
There’s no bigger piece at play this off-season than Giannis Antetokounmpo. However, even with all signs pointing toward an exit from the only franchise he’s known, it’s still far from a sure thing that the two-time MVP gets dealt.
Reports suggest that while Antetokounmpo and his people have had sit-down conversations with the Bucks, the forward has yet to formally request a trade and that there’s still a chance he sticks it out through what projects to be a tumultuous stretch for a franchise already in disarray.
Surely teams are making calls to do their due diligence, but it appears serious talks have yet to gain any traction. Still, if Antetokounmpo is made available, every team would likely have a conversation, at the very least. Twenty-eight franchises felt swindled when Luka Doncic was suddenly dealt to the Lakers without a bidding war, and they’ll be sure not to let this opportunity pass them by.
How will teams that missed out on Durant pivot?
The other big superstar wrinkle heading into the off-season was set to be Kevin Durant, but the 15-time all-star was dealt away from Phoenix hours before Game 7 of the Finals. It was the Houston Rockets who won the race, landing Durant for a relatively cheap package of Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, one first-round pick and five second-round picks. Tidy business and a clear step in the right direction for the young squad.
For the rest of the teams that reportedly took their shot at the superstar — the Raptors, Spurs, Heat and Timberwolves — the next step is less certain. Adding Durant to any of those squads could’ve been massive, immediately propelling most to contention or at least expediting their rebuilds.
How will the Heat justify missing on another superstar? How can the Timberwolves solve the second star issue and get past the Thunder? How do the Raptors break away from mediocrity? How may the Spurs keep surrounding Wembanyama with talent? All those questions could’ve been answered by Kevin Durant, but now each team will have to recalibrate.
Who do Raptors go big-game hunting for?
The Raptors are in a really weird spot as an expensive but bang-on average team. Though fans have yet to see how the Brandon Ingram experiment plays out, with the mid-season trade acquisition yet to suit up for his new side, he’ll likely be able to improve a roster that sputtered to a 30-52 record this past season.
But it seems as though Ingram is just the tip of the iceberg for the rebuild the Raptors seem to want to end. Reports have swirled about the team’s interest in going big-game hunting and they were in the chase for Durant but unwilling to include centre Jakob Poeltl, according to Sportsnet’s Michael Grange.
If Antetokounmpo enters the market, expect the Raptors to be interested, as Masai Ujiri’s connection to the forward is well-documented.
In all, the Raptors have a decent war chest if they want to bid for any potential all-star that enters the market. With control over all their future first-rounders, a handful of intriguing young talents and solid-but-not-stellar ancillary pieces, they should be able to take a run at whoever becomes available.
The San Antonio Spurs made a seemingly sound decision in gunning for former Kings point guard De’Aaron Fox to pair with phenom Victor Wembanyama, adding a player that should fit alongside their centre for some time. The mid-season deal also showed a willingness to go out and win in the early years of the Frenchman’s career, but they only got to play five games together as Wembanyama sat the back half of the season while dealing with a blood clot issue.
That shouldn’t change their timeline heading into next season, however, and the Spurs have already indicated a willingness to add more talent to their growing pool with their chase for Durant.
But what comes next? They have the No. 2 pick in the upcoming NBA Draft, and while the consensus choice is to take Rutgers guard Dylan Harper, the real question is whether they should move the pick in a deal for yet another established star to pair with Wemby — someone like Antetokounmpo, perhaps. If they take Harper, the future is all but secured with him, Wembanyama and reigning rookie of the year Stephon Castle, but don’t rule out the Spurs instead choosing to fortify the present.
Will Celtics blow it up in wake of Tatum injury?
Championship windows can close in the blink of an eye, and while many saw the Celtics as a team poised for dynastic proportions, the untimely injury to Jayson Tatum — he’s set to miss the entirety of the 2025-26 season with an Achilles tear — has thrown a wrench into those plans.
Now, the Celtics seem destined to pivot in a year without their franchise superstar. Rumours of trades that could send Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis and even Jaylen Brown to new franchises have become too loud to ignore, and the Celtics front office has never been one to sit on its hands.
Freeing up cap space by dealing Holiday and Porzingis makes sense in a lost season, as injuries and age are catching up to both former all-stars, but the nuclear option of dealing Brown and his massive contract — he has four years left in a five-year, $285 million deal — could entirely reshape the picture in the East and across the NBA as a whole.
What direction do Knicks go with coaching search?
The New York Knicks enjoyed a run of success this past season that the city had been sorely lacking for more than two decades. But the only taste left in the city’s collective mouth is that of bitter defeat with a Game 6 loss to the Pacers in the East Final. For that, long-time coach Tom Thibodeau met his end in basketball’s Mecca.
Whether that was the right decision is up for debate, as he brought the team the most success it’s had in years, but his coaching decisions and gaffes fell under the microscope of one of the toughest fan bases and media markets across the league.
Who the Knicks pick to lead the team next will say a lot about what comes next. Do they go with a proven commodity in Mike Brown, Taylor Jenkins or Mike Malone — all of whom were fired this season — or do they go with someone less established like Cavaliers assistant Johnnie Bryant, who they may believe has untapped potential? The Knicks seem to want to go in the experienced direction after failed pursuits of Jason Kidd, Ime Udoka, Chris Finch and Quin Snyder, but rejection can change a lot.
How will Mavericks re-adjust in Cooper Flagg era?
Hoops fans in Dallas might still be recovering from the whiplash of trading Luka Doncic and then months later landing the No. 1 pick despite a 1.8 per cent chance at the selection. Sometimes fortune favours the bold.
Though the Mavericks made their run to the 2024 Finals on the back of Doncic’s otherworldly offensive prowess, their defence in the latter half of the year is what truly set them apart. With Anthony Davis — an incomparably better defensive force — now leading the charge, the Mavericks have the potential to become an all-time unit on that end, and that’s before taking into account consensus top pick Cooper Flagg, whose two-way prowess at Duke helped him earn the National Player of the Year award.
Flagg changes everything for the Mavericks. Though you could look at them as being on two different timelines at once with the 32-year-old Davis and the 18-year-old Flagg, the former Blue Devils standout has a poise, presence and maturity that should translate perfectly to the NBA. The Mavericks will be ready to contend in Year 1 with Flagg.
