Does a change of calendar year suggest a change for how you approach innovation, consumers and customers? Not necessarily. Even so, Prepared Foods’ annual Predictions issue presents as many as 14 insight pieces about what’s new and next in foods, beverages and consumer behaviors.
One firm already considering the past, present and future is Chicago data and insights researcher Circana LLC. In an August “Circana Compass” release, it reviewed 2025 global retail food and beverage (F&B) industry performance and shared a forward-looking 2026 outlook.
Looking back, Circana said its 2024 projection anticipated US F&B industry dollar sales growth between 2% and 4% for 2025, driven by price/mix increases of 1.5% to 3.5%, and volume growth ranging from 0% to 1%.
Analysts summarized: “Current estimates align closely, with anticipated dollar sales growth at 3.2%, price/mix at 3%, and volume gains at 0.2%, demonstrating Circana’s accuracy of earlier forecasts and valuable guidance for industry stakeholders as they navigate the remainder of the year and plan for 2026. While rising prices of select commodities, such as cocoa and coffee, have pushed up retail F&B price growth in 2025, price growth in other F&B areas remains more moderate. Retail volumes continue to grow, albeit at a tighter rate than in 2024.”
2026 US Projections
Circana reported that during the past five years, compounded inflation has driven a cumulative 34% rise in average retail F&B prices. Looking ahead, it forecasts US F&B price/mix growth of 3% to 5% in 2026—shaped by ongoing cost pressures, competitive retail pricing, and strategic promotional activity.
It cautioned that volume growth is expected to remain tight, estimated at -1% to 1%, as consumers adopt more value-driven and multifunctional eating habits. Authors conclude that these dynamics suggest dollar sales growth will range from 3% to 5% and indicate continued sector resilience.
“We’ve observed slowing volume growth in the first half of 2025, with a modest increase of 0.4%,” noted Sally Lyons Wyatt, global executive vice president and chief advisor for Circana. “Consumers are prioritizing in-home food and beverage spending while redefining ‘value’ with an emphasis on convenience and functionality. With these evolving behaviors, the CPG industry must strategically identify ways to stimulate demand and remain profitable.”
This November, Lyons Wyatt opened Prepared Foods’ annual Spirit of Innovation Awards webinar and she delivered a “state of innovation” address. Despite economic and market challenges, she encouraged food and beverage brand owners to move forward with new product innovation.
Key Factors Shaping Industry
Circana highlights three pivotal drivers for 2026 and beyond: value, health, and demographic shifts.
1. Value remains increasingly personalized but consistently favors mass, club, and value retailers. E-commerce continues to grow, propelled by advancements from the largest retailers.
2. Health-conscious behaviors also are reshaping the market. Consumers are prioritizing higher-protein diets, reducing alcohol and snack consumption, and seeking out products with premium, health-driven ingredients.
3. Tighter budgets among low-income and Hispanic households, coupled with demographic changes like declining birth rates and slower immigration trends, are influencing broader category performance.
Want additional insights? Page forward for our in-depth collection of retail and foodservice channel predictions involving foods, beverages and consumer behaviors.
