The Buffalo Bills head to Denver on Saturday for the divisional matchup versus a Broncos team coming off a first-round bye.
Matt Bowen breaks down the matchup, looking at schematic tendencies and personnel, and offers his take, and Liz Loza, Pamela Maldonado, Eric Moody and Seth Walder share their best bets, analysis and DFS plays to help you get in on the action.
Note: Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.
When the Bills have the ball
Bowen: The Bills will see a top-tier Denver defense that played man coverage on a league-high 60.8% of opponent dropbacks, so coordinator Joe Brady will need answers here to create defined targets and get the ball out of Josh Allen’s hands at a quicker rate. Look for more crossers and underneath throws, though the Bills will take their shots down the field on perimeter one-on-ones. As always with Buffalo, the run game remains a critical part of the offensive script, which means volume for James Cook III.
Edge: Broncos
Best bet: Dalton Kincaid over 3.5 receptions (+117): Given the defensive coverage tendencies of the Broncos, Kincaid will be a prime target for Allen on middle-of-the-field throws while also operating as an outlet/checkdown versus pressure.
When the Broncos have the ball
Bowen: We know what the Bills are from a defensive perspective, playing with discipline and zone eyes in their split-safety coverages. Look for Sean Payton to scheme concepts here, creating zone voids for quarterback Bo Nix to deliver the ball in rhythm. The Broncos can create production with the run game versus a Buffalo defense that has struggled to limit opposing rushers.
Edge: Broncos
Best bet: RJ Harvey over 54.5 rushing yards (-114): Harvey has seen at least 14 carries in four of his last five games, so let’s play the steady volume against a Bills defense that allowed 5.1 YPC this season (third most).
Staff picks, best bets and props
Total points UNDER 45.5 (-108)
Maldonado: Denver leads the league in defensive success rate and allows touchdowns at the lowest rate in the league. Buffalo moves the ball efficiently, but Denver’s ability to generate pressure slows pace and shortens drives. On the other side, the Broncos’ offense is near the bottom in touchdown rate per drive, punting at the third-highest rate behind only Cleveland and Tennessee, and relies on defense to keep games close. This should be a controlled, low-variance game that stays under.
Josh Allen OVER 0.5 INTs (+139)
Walder: Allen’s 1.7% interception rate this season is middle of the road, ranking 14th among QBR-qualifying quarterbacks. That still could lead to this kind of plus-money number on an interception over in certain circumstances — but these are not those circumstances! The Bills are light underdogs, and they’re going against a great defense in Denver. Plus, because the Broncos are so good at stopping the run, the Bills might have to go with a more pass-heavy script than they otherwise might have.
Bo Nix longest rush OVER 12.5 yards (-115)
Loza: Nix has relied on his legs, particularly when the passing game falls apart, averaging nearly 21 rushing yards per contest during the regular season. That figures to translate to a solid number of rushing attempts Saturday for Denver’s QB. Nix has recorded seven rushes of 13 or more yards (tied with Jalen Hurts for 10th most among QBs). Buffalo’s greatest defensive weakness remains its inability to stop the run, having allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to opposing QBs in the regular season. Additionally, the Bills defense surrendered the most QB rushes of 13 or more yards (11) in 2025 and gave up an 18-yard scamper to Trevor Lawrence last weekend.
RJ Harvey OVER 54.5 rushing yards (-114)
Moody: The Bills have had defensive issues this season, particularly against the run, allowing 137.2 rushing yards per game, the fifth-most in the league. With Denver’s offensive line finishing the regular season ranked fourth in run block win rate, Harvey should be well positioned to take advantage. The matchup is encouraging, as Travis Etienne Jr. rushed for 67 yards against Buffalo in last week’s wild-card round.
Daily fantasy tips for DraftKings Captain Showdown
Loza’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Last week, Josh Allen ($18,000) led the Bills to the franchise’s first postseason road victory since 1992. He is inevitable. And worth every penny.
Also in my lineup: Pat Bryant ($6,000). A value pick here. Nix’s proclivity for spreading the ball around has become a familiar frustration for fantasy enthusiasts. Still, Bryant appeared to leap-frog Troy Franklin down the stretch, averaging six looks per healthy game from Weeks 13 to now. He has also drawn at least one red zone look in every game played from Week 11 through the end of the regular season. Sean Payton stated in a recent presser that he plans to be “aggressive” versus Buffalo, suggesting the power slot receiver should remain heavily involved.
Maldonado’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Allen ($18,000). Even if Denver limits touchdowns, Allen’s rushing equity, third-down conversions and red zone involvement keep his floor intact.
Also in my lineup: Broncos D/ST ($3,800). Denver’s defense has an elite success rate, the league-low touchdown rate allowed per drive and top-tier pressure even without blitzing. They force punts, compress scoring and create fantasy value without needing turnovers.
Walder’s recommendations
DFS Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): RJ Harvey ($14,400). On paper, this should be a huge game for Harvey, given Buffalo’s shortcomings against the run. It shows up in their opponent tendencies, too. Teams playing the Bills have recorded a negative-8% pass rate over expected, the second-lowest among all defenses, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That’s a long way of saying that Harvey should be in for a huge game.
Also in my lineup: Dalton Kincaid ($6,400). My instincts tell me the Broncos win this game, and that means at some point the Bills likely will be playing catchup. The result? More pass attempts from Allen — and I don’t think they’ll be thrown in Pat Surtain II’s direction. Kincaid is a more logical target.
