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Dan Graziano
It’s a pretty important season for many NFL quarterbacks and their respective teams. No matter how the 2025 offseason or preseason has gone, a good chunk of the league is dealing with at least some level of short- and/or long-term uncertainty at the most important position.
Every year at this time, we like to take a look beyond the upcoming season and into the next offseason, projecting which teams might or might not still have QB questions. Then we predict what they might be in position to do about those questions. We try to lock in on ones with legit questions about how this season could shake out … and we try to stay away from ones where the contract situation offers at least some certainty.
For example, this might feel like an important year for Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville, until you realize he has $37 million fully guaranteed in 2026 and $29 million fully guaranteed in 2027. You can say this is a vital year for Dak Prescott in Dallas, but he has $40 million guaranteed for 2026, and restructures have pushed the dead money penalty for cutting him to impossible levels. And the Bears, Vikings and Falcons are still too early in the process to be giving up on the guys they picked in the first round last year.
On the flip side, the Ravens likely have to do something with Lamar Jackson’s contract soon, since his cap number for 2026 jumps to $74.5 million. Jackson’s last negotiation was contentious, so it’s possible there could be some uncertainty around this situation in the next year or so. But other than the rising cap hit (which can be addressed by extending him), there’s no reason to think the Ravens are looking to move on anytime soon. So Baltimore didn’t make the cut here, either.
We ultimately keyed on 12 situations where the QB picture could look a lot different in 2026 and laid out two options for each front office — the most likely outcome and a long shot possibility. Let’s start with Arizona.
Jump to a team:
ARI | CAR | CLE | IND | LV | LAR
NO | NYG | NYJ | PIT | SEA | TB
Current starter: Kyler Murray
Signed through: 2027, plus a team option for 2028
Murray just turned 28 a couple of weeks ago. He was healthy all of last season and is surrounded with skill position players who put him in a position to succeed. And his 66.6 QBR ranked in the top 10 last season. If there’s a criticism of Murray, it’s that he hasn’t been quite the franchise changer he was drafted to be as the No. 1 pick in 2019.
Certainly, it’s not too late to change that, and if the Cardinals have a big season, Murray should be all set going into 2026. His contract includes about $40 million in 2026 salary and bonuses that are already fully guaranteed. But there are no guarantees after 2026, and if Murray struggles with health and/or performance, it’s not out of the question that the Cardinals could turn their attention to the future. They can cut Murray after 2026 with minimal dead money impact. If things got bad enough before then, cutting him next offseason would cost them about $58 million — a lot, but also a manageable amount.
Most likely outcome: The Cardinals have a good enough season, maybe even contend for or snag a playoff spot and stay the course with Murray through at least 2026. If Murray plays well enough, he could be in position to ask for an extension that offers him more security than his current deal.
Long shot outcome: Arizona’s season completely collapses, people in charge get fired and a new regime comes in and decides the best thing for the franchise is to move on at QB in the 2026 draft. Murray becomes a candidate to be released or traded, while one of the top QB prospects for 2026 lands in Arizona in Round 1.
Current starter: Bryce Young
Signed through: 2026, plus a team option for 2027
Young had a rough rookie season and a rough start to his sophomore season, getting benched for Andy Dalton early in 2024 and looking like he might become an all-time draft bust after being the first pick in the 2023 draft. But he got the starting job back when Dalton was injured in a car accident, and he finished the season strong under the tutelage of first-year head coach Dave Canales.
Now, hopes are high that Young can continue last season’s progress and emerge as Carolina’s franchise quarterback. His contract is fully guaranteed and pays him a total of about $10.2 million over the next two years. Next May, the Panthers will have to decide whether to pick up his fifth-year option for 2027, which is likely to cost somewhere in the $25 million range.
It’s a critical year for Young. If he flops and the Panthers don’t pick up the option, they’re probably looking to move on from him as early as next offseason. If he plays well and they do pick up the option, then he has fully guaranteed money in 2027 and probably isn’t going anywhere.
Most likely outcome: Young builds on the success he had toward the end of the 2024 season, the improving group around him on offense begins to jell, the Panthers pick up the option to give them more time to decide and Carolina continues to develop Young as their QB of the future.
Long shot outcome: The Panthers are the surprise team of the 2025 season. Young plays well enough to make his first Pro Bowl, and Carolina makes the playoffs. In this scenario, not only are the Panthers picking up the option — they’re talking extension with Young.
1:52
Can Bryce Young stay hot for the 2025 NFL season?
Dan Orlovsky and the “Get Up” crew discuss whether Bryce Young can continue playing well for the Panthers heading into the 2025 NFL season.
Current starter: Joe Flacco
Signed through: 2025
Whoa, boy. This is, without a doubt, the wildest, most unpredictable quarterback situation in the NFL right now and quite possibly in league history.
Flacco will start Week 1 for the Browns. He’s 40 years old and helped them get to the playoffs when he came out of what appeared to be retirement late in the 2023 season. He emerged from a four-man training camp QB competition this year in large part because everyone else missed time because of injury.
Kenny Pickett, the former Steelers first-rounder for whom the Browns traded back in March, might have had a shot to beat out Flacco but couldn’t get on the field enough after a hamstring injury in July. The Browns drafted Dillon Gabriel in the third round and Shedeur Sanders in the fifth round of this year’s draft, but both struggled to find first-team reps alongside Flacco and Pickett. By the time Pickett’s camp injury could have opened the door, Gabriel and Sanders were dealing with health issues of their own.
Any of those three could be the backup to Flacco in Week 1 (as could Tyler Huntley, if none of those three is ready), and all three could also start at some point this season if Flacco and/or the team struggle. But also don’t forget that Deshaun Watson is still signed for two more years at a fully guaranteed $46 million per year. Watson doesn’t sound likely to play this season as he recovers from an Achilles injury, but you never know.
So to recap, that’s …
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A 40-year-old former first-round pick and Super Bowl MVP
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Another former first-round pick who’s going into his fourth year in the league and is already on his third team
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An undersized left-handed third-round rookie who threw an ugly pick-six in last weekend’s preseason start
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A fifth-round rookie who’s Deion Sanders’ son and through no real fault of his own has become one of the most talked-about players in the entire league
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The all-time QB contract albatross still hanging over all of it
This is going to be a wild story to follow all season.
0:47
Graziano: Fair for Browns to name Flacco as starting QB for Week 1
Dan Graziano discusses how the Browns’ training camp injuries justify their decision to name Joe Flacco as their starting quarterback for Week 1.
Most likely outcome: Who knows??? But there’s a really strong chance that Cleveland comes out of 2025 with more questions than answers about all of these guys and uses a 2026 first-round pick to try to get its quarterback situation right once and for all. Remember: The Browns also have the Jaguars’ first-round pick next year, giving them the juice to move up for the right QB if desired.
Long shot outcome: It turns out Sanders should have been a first- or second-round pick all along. He advances quickly in practice in the early months of the season and finishes as the Browns’ starter. Cleveland feels good enough about him that they use those two first-round picks to build around him rather than replace him.
Current starter: Daniel Jones
Signed through: 2025
The Colts drafted Anthony Richardson Sr. fourth in 2023. He has played in just 15 of Indy’s 34 games since then, missing time for injuries and performance. Last season, he completed 47.7% of his passes and threw eight touchdown passes to 12 interceptions. So the Colts signed Jones to compete with Richardson for the starting job this summer. Well, the Colts announced Tuesday that Jones has won the starting job, and coach Shane Steichen insisted it was not just for Week 1 but rather the whole season. We’ll see.
Jones has been the more consistent option through camp, but Richardson clearly offers a higher ceiling due to his great size, speed and arm strength. The problem for the Colts is Richardson hasn’t stayed healthy enough for them to see out if he can reach his potential. Some seats are getting hot out there in Indy, and it could be tempting to keep rolling with Jones if he gives the Colts the best chance to win games right away. But the flip side is the team made a heavy investment in Richardson and is in a bad spot long term if that pick doesn’t pan out. Plus, Jones hasn’t exactly been the healthiest QB in the league, so there’s no guarantee Indianapolis won’t have to turn to Richardson at some point.
Most likely outcome: Each of these guys starts at least six games for the Colts in 2025. Maybe someone else starts one, too. The Colts get to the end of the season still uncertain about Richardson and face a tough decision on his fifth-year option next May. But Jones moves on, and Indy looks to the draft or free agency for its next answer. It’s tough to forecast the path, since a poor season by the Colts could lead to changes among the decision-makers as well as the quarterbacks. But they’d need a long-term solution, so the Colts would likely prefer to use the draft to find a new QB. If they needed a veteran placeholder, perhaps they could go for someone like Kirk Cousins — assuming the Falcons let him go this time.
Long shot outcome: Jones struggles, opening the door for Richardson to take the job back — and the light goes on. Sure, he’s still prone to the occasional brutal mistake, but Richardson makes three or four dazzling plays with his arm and his legs each week that others just can’t make. The Colts get to next offseason excited to pick up Richardson’s fifth-year option and keep working with him now that he has shown he can stay healthy and play at a high level in the NFL.
Current starter: Geno Smith
Signed through: 2027
Smith’s contract really doesn’t bind the Raiders to him for more than this season. He has $18.5 million in guaranteed money on the books for 2026, but because the Raiders don’t like to put signing bonuses in their contracts, that’s the extent of the dead money hit if they want to cut him next offseason. If they keep him through 2026, they’d pay him a total of $40 million this year and $26.5 million next year. There will be no guarantees on the books for 2027, meaning Vegas could move on from him after 2026 with no dead money hit whatsoever.
These are all worst-case scenarios, of course. Smith is a good quarterback. He completed 70.4% of his passes last season with the Seahawks, throwing 21 touchdown passes. New Raiders coach Pete Carroll believes in him from their time together in Seattle. So Smith could absolutely play well and get an extension (or at least more money) next offseason.
But he also turns 35 in October, and the structure of his contract indicates the Raiders weren’t willing to commit long term. This feels like a trial season for Smith in Las Vegas. Even if the Raiders found a better option in next year’s draft, keeping Smith as a $26.5 million backup wouldn’t be impossible. It’s pretty much what Atlanta’s doing right now with Kirk Cousins and Michael Penix Jr.
Most likely outcome: Smith plays well in Chip Kelly’s offense, leaning on rookie running back Ashton Jeanty and second-year tight end Brock Bowers. The Raiders win more games than we’re used to them winning because Carroll is now the coach. They don’t make the playoffs, but they hang in the race longer than last season and go into 2026 with good vibes. At age 35, Smith is still not landing a whopper of a long-term contract, but Las Vegas adjusts his deal to bring it more in line with the market before going into 2026 as a team on the rise.
Long shot outcome: Things fall apart for Smith and the Raiders pick high in the draft and select their quarterback of the future. Smith sticks around, either to start until the rookie is ready or as the backup until another team wants to trade for him.
Current starter: Matthew Stafford
Signed through: 2026
Stafford’s making $44 million this year (all guaranteed) and then $40 million in 2026 (none of which is guaranteed). Now, he threw for 3,762 yards and 20 TDs last season. But he has also been dealing with a back issue in camp, and at 37 years old, Stafford has reached the point in his career where the decision on whether to continue playing comes after every season. So it’s entirely possible this is his final season (though he has indicated no such thing).
The Rams had a tough time coming to an agreement with him on this year’s contract, even entertaining trade talks before he agreed to his restructured deal in February. So they know this arrangement isn’t forever. Their first-round trade with the Falcons in this year’s draft leaves them with two first-rounders in 2026, so they’re positioned to address the quarterback situation that way if they so choose.
Most likely outcome: Stafford answers the bell for Week 1 and has his usual strong season. The Rams make the playoffs and win a postseason game or two. Heck, maybe they even get to the Super Bowl and present Stafford with the chance to really go out in style. The dance repeats itself next offseason as he turns 38 in February, but this time Stafford and the Rams part ways, either because he decides to retire or they decide it’s time to pivot to another option. In this scenario, the Rams likely use those two first-round picks to address the position long term. But if they draft someone who isn’t ready yet, it’s easy to see them looking toward a reclamation project from the Kyle Shanahan tree like Mac Jones or Malik Willis.
Long shot outcome: The back remains an issue all season, leaving the Rams to piece things together around Jimmy Garoppolo and Stetson Bennett. This does not go well. The Rams miss the playoffs, say goodbye to Stafford and use their two first-round picks in a package to move up to select a quarterback No. 1 overall. This quarterback, under Sean McVay’s tutelage, goes on to win three Super Bowls for the franchise.
Current starter: Spencer Rattler or Tyler Shough
Signed through: Rattler 2027, Shough 2028
The Saints have held a competition between Rattler, their fifth-round pick from 2024, and Shough, their second-round pick from 2025. Because Shough was the 40th pick with a new, offensive-minded coach in place, it has been assumed that he would have the edge. But Rattler had a strong offseason and might have done enough to hold Shough off — at least to start the season.
Because neither QB was a first-round pick, the Saints do not hold a fifth-year option on either of them. After this year, Rattler will have two years and about $2.3 million left on his contract, and he won’t be extension eligible until after the 2026 season. Shough will have three years and about $5.5 million left on his contract after 2025, and he won’t be extension eligible until after the 2027 season. Both players will be options for the Saints for the foreseeable future, assuming New Orleans wants them to be in the mix.
Most likely outcome: Rattler certainly has a shot to hold off Shough in the short term (or even the long term). Stranger things have happened. But the fact that the Saints drafted Shough as high as they did, just a few months after hiring Kellen Moore as their coach, indicates that Shough is likely to get a chance to show what he can do sooner or later. This is a very tough one to predict, but the most likely outcome is Shough develops into the starter by the end of the season and opens 2026 with the job.
Long shot outcome: The Saints have the worst team in the league, neither QB shows much promise and New Orleans uses the first pick in the 2026 draft to select a quarterback. With a combined $8 million left on their contracts, neither Rattler nor Shough represents any kind of obstacle if the Saints decide they want to go with a new option next year.
Current starter: Russell Wilson
Signed through: 2025
Coach Brian Daboll has said repeatedly that Wilson, 36, will open the season as the Giants’ starting quarterback, even though the team traded back into the first round to select Jaxson Dart in April’s draft and also signed Jameis Winston in March. Dart has performed well in two preseason games so far, and as Daboll’s handpicked choice, he’s sure to take over as the starter at some point.
The question is whether that point comes this season, as it always seems to for first-round rookie quarterbacks. If so, then when? The Giants have a brutal-looking first-half schedule and could easily find themselves in a situation similar to the one they faced in 2004, when veteran Kurt Warner started the first nine games before giving way to a rookie first-round pick named Eli Manning.
Most likely outcome: The Giants struggle, Wilson looks as meh as he has the past three seasons and Dart takes over as the starter in the first half of the season. The question turns to whether the Giants can win enough games to convince ownership to stick with Daboll and let him continue to develop Dart in 2026. I say he gets the chance.
Long shot outcome: Wilson finds the fountain of youth. Malik Nabers emerges as a top-three wide receiver in the league. Andrew Thomas stays healthy at left tackle. The Giants’ pass rush fuels one of the league’s surprise top defenses. And the Giants pull a few upsets early to stay in contention all season. Wilson has a little nagging injury that leads to Winston starting two games somewhere along the way, but Dart rides the bench all season while the vets keep the team in the playoff hunt. Dart gets his chance to start in 2026.
Current starter: Justin Fields
Signed through: 2026
Fields got $30 million in guarantees in the contract he signed this offseason — $20 million this year and $10 million in 2026. Veteran Tyrod Taylor is the backup, and there’s no young high draft pick on the roster pushing to play anytime soon, so Fields likely gets the season to show what he can do.
Fields is still only 26 and on his third team, so there’s certainly a chance he blossoms as a passer while remaining one of the most productive runners in the NFL at the QB position (19 rushing TDs over 50 games). The coaching staff, including head coach Aaron Glenn and offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand, is new, and there could be growing pains all around, so it’s fair to imagine the Jets stay patient with Fields even if he struggles early. If the Jets decide to look elsewhere for a QB solution next offseason, the $10 million guaranteed in 2026 won’t prevent them from doing so.
Most likely outcome: As he has throughout his career, Fields has his ups and downs, flashing the talent that made him the 11th pick in the 2021 draft. But he continues to struggle with consistency, especially as a passer. The Jets win six or seven games and don’t really factor into the playoff race. They keep Fields for 2026 … but bring in someone who represents stronger competition than Taylor. Maybe this ends up being Kenny Pickett’s next stop. Those first-round picks tend to get a lot of rope in this league.
1:26
Why Justin Fields is hard to decipher for fantasy managers
Field Yates breaks down how Justin Fields is a midtier QB2 with the potential for a handful of big games.
Long shot outcome: Fields makes a major leap as a passer, and his legs help the Jets field one of the most effective overall run games in the NFL. The Jets win 10 or 11 games and claim an AFC wild-card spot, and they reward Fields with a contract extension next offseason.
Current starter: Aaron Rodgers
Signed through: 2025
Rodgers will turn 42 in December. He managed to play all 17 games for the Jets last season, but he was statistically among the worst starting quarterbacks in the league. He missed basically the entire 2023 season after tearing his left Achilles early in the first game, and frankly, he wasn’t very good in his final year with the Packers in 2022 (41.3 QBR, 26th in the NFL that year).
The Steelers keep managing to squeak into the playoffs but also keep losing in the first round. They’re hoping Rodgers can help them buck that trend, but again, he’s going to be 42 by the time the playoffs start — and there are 17 quarterbacks who have won NFL playoff games since Rodgers last won one.
Rodgers has come out and said this is likely to be his last season in the NFL. The question is whether he can make it all the way through it. The Steelers have a young offensive line that still has some questions to answer, a thin wide receiver group beyond DK Metcalf and a run game that could rely on rookie running back Kaleb Johnson. There really isn’t a quarterback on the roster who will push Rodgers for playing time even if he struggles, so there are legitimate questions about where coach Mike Tomlin would turn if Rodgers just doesn’t have it anymore or gets injured.
Most likely outcome: Rodgers has yet another poor-to-mediocre season, but the Steelers’ defense keeps them in games. They run it enough to steal a few low-scoring matchups, finish 9-8 and contend for the No. 7 seed in the AFC playoff field. Then Rodgers retires at the end of the season, and the Steelers look at next year’s draft class for the long-term QB they really need.
Long shot outcome: Rodgers has one more brilliant season left in him, and it’s this one. He and Metcalf form a potent connection. The line jells in front of him. Johnson, along with fellow running backs Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell, power the offense around Rodgers. And the defense is its usual stifling self. The Steelers win the AFC North and finally break their playoff drought, advancing to the Super Bowl, where Rodgers has a chance for a storybook ending to his career — and retires after the season.
1:54
Can Aaron Rodgers live up to his legacy in Pittsburgh?
Mike Tannenbaum debates whether Aaron Rodgers’ best days are already behind him as he looks to make the Steelers contenders again.
Current starter: Sam Darnold
Signed through: 2027
Darnold signed a three-year contract with the Seahawks this offseason after throwing 35 touchdown passes and leading Minnesota to a 14-3 record in 2024. But a closer look reveals that Seattle isn’t really committed to him beyond 2025.
He got $37.5 million in guaranteed money, and all of that comes this season. He’s scheduled to make $27.5 million in 2026. None of that 2026 money is guaranteed right now, but $17.5 million of it becomes guaranteed if he’s still on the roster five days after the Super Bowl. So Seattle will have to decide pretty early whether they want him back in 2026. If he’s still there in 2027, he’d be owed $35.5 million. But let’s be honest: If he’s still there in 2027, the Seahawks are probably extending him.
Darnold turned 28 in June, so the question is whether last season represented a turning point in his career or whether it was a product of the Vikings’ brilliant QB infrastructure. Seattle, which went into the offseason expecting to extend Geno Smith and had to pivot once it found out Smith preferred to be elsewhere, has built the contract in a way that allows flexibility if Darnold turns back into a pumpkin.
Most likely outcome: Seattle relies on its defense and run game to contend for the playoffs in Mike Macdonald’s second season as the coach. New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak builds on the progress Darnold made with Kevin O’Connell last year, the offensive line situation is better and the Seahawks win more games than they lose. Darnold has a do-no-harm year that convinces Seattle to bring him back in 2026.
Long shot outcome: Darnold takes another leap, actually improving on his 2024 success and delivering on the promise that made him the No. 3 pick in 2018 with the Jets. As draft classmate Baker Mayfield has in Tampa Bay, Darnold finds his place in Seattle and leads the Seahawks to the playoffs. Next offseason, they tear up the contract and give him a new, much larger one.
Current starter: Baker Mayfield
Signed through: 2026
Mayfield signed with the Bucs ahead of the 2023 season on a low-cost, one-year prove-it deal after playing for three different teams over the previous two seasons. Taking the spot of the retired Tom Brady, Mayfield kept the train on the tracks and led the Buccaneers to a division title that season. He got a new contract and a new offensive coordinator in 2024, and then led the Bucs to a fourth straight division title. His 41 touchdown passes tied for the second most in the NFL behind Joe Burrow, and he was third in completion percentage at 71.4%.
A few weeks ago, the Buccaneers adjusted Mayfield’s contract to guarantee him $30 million for the 2026 season, which indicates a strong commitment to him. A longer and more substantial extension for Mayfield is not out of the question and could come during this season or next offseason.
Honestly, I’m starting to wonder why I’m even mentioning Mayfield and the Buccaneers here …
Most likely outcome: The Buccaneers have one of the best teams in the NFC, make the playoffs again and make a run at the Super Bowl with the best roster they’ve had since Brady’s 2020 season. Mayfield gets a full-size extension next offseason and says he looks forward to finishing his career in Tampa Bay.
Long shot outcome: The Bucs miss the playoffs and are one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL. They end up with a high enough draft pick to make them rethink their commitment to Mayfield.
