3 experts pick winners, sleepers, cut-missers from Portrush

Okay, fellas. Look, we know you’re not exactly gambling experts, but we think you’re smart people and good guys, and because you’ve taken up residence at Royal Portrush for the week, we’re making some picks and we need your guidance. Sure, maybe it’s smarter for readers to consider this “entertainment” than “investment advice.” But you’re at the Open. You have eyes and ears and thoughts. And so, based on observations, information, vibe, instinct, whatever — I’m hoping you can help up predict how this tournament could play and who you think could contend. Sound good?

Dylan Dethier: Sounds great. With luck we’ll be walking out of the local bookmaker on Sunday night with fistfuls of pounds. Or Scottie Scheffler will win and we’ll all look dumb for missing the obvious.

James Colgan: I have stared into the bottom of a handful of Guinness pints in Portrush this week in pursuit of … uh … answers. Let’s do it.

Sean Zak: I’ve had seven straight nights of fish ’n’ chips, I’ve never been more ready to predict a championship. 

The course: How Portrush will play

1. Tell me something — anything! — about how you think Royal Portrush is going to play this week.

Dethier: Firm. It’s green, which can distract from just how rock-hard the playing surfaces really are. What does that mean? It means the fairways are effectively narrower and the greens are effectively smaller, and while we’ll see a bunch of birdies we’ll get a bunch of other stuff, too. It’s been interesting walking around during practice rounds and seeing players and caddies perplexed by some tee shots, especially as the wind switched from Tuesday to Wednesday. Sometimes it can feel like there’s nowhere easy to aim your tee shots; one line might require a long forced carry over the gorse, but a “safer” line might bring a fairway bunker into play. What does that mean? Something obvious: Whoever wins this thing is going to have command of their golf ball. They’ll hit a ton of fairways and greens and avoid the big misses. There will be no faking it.

Colgan: Terrifyingly. I could not believe how narrow Royal Portrush was on first glimpse, and a few subsequent days of walking have done little to assuage my concerns. Every tee shot feels like you’re hitting down an elevator shaft. I’m sure these guys will go low, but there feels like lots of room for drama.

Zak: Can a course play naggingly? I think of that word because it feels like the weather will be swapping between sunshine and rain and then sleet and wind and maybe back to dry overcast afternoons. That would nag me as a golfer! There’s no comfort in that. The routing is more chaotic than the out-and-back Opens of the last three years. That means a different wind on most tees. That would annoy me too! In other words, the boys will be unsettled until they sign their cards. There’s no comfort out there. Maybe that’s a better word: Uncomfortable.

Deep sleepers

2. Give me a name I’m not thinking of who might contend and give me a reason why — logical or not.

Dethier: I’ll give you two: Daniel Berger (100-1) and Matthew Jordan (200-1). I’m pretty intrigued by the idea of the winner being a very straight hitter off the tee; Berger is one of the straightest. He hasn’t been putting particularly well, but if he finds something on the greens he’s hitting it well enough to be dangerous. I have zero logic behind my Jordan pick other than he’s finished top 10 the last two Opens and I like his vibe. Finally I think Rickie Fowler (125-1) is playing better than you’d expect and if he drives it well he, too, could be around on the weekend.

Colgan: Tom McKibbin (125-1) is self-admittedly a longshot to win a home Open in Ireland. But he’s a young guy with a ton of course experience and an even keel. I think that serves him well this week.

Zak: Lucas Glover (250-1) I don’t always align with Glover’s opinions, but I do love his ball-striking, which has never been better. Plus finished T20 here in 2019. 

Surefire contenders

3. Gimme a lock to finish top 20.

Dethier: Xander Schauffele. He’s roughly even odds to finish top 20, which to me is preposterous. Schauffele has finished top 20 at 13 of the last 14 majors, he’s the defending champ, he’s trending in the right direction and he’s trending up. I like his chances.

Colgan: Shane Lowry is a stone-cold lock to make the cut this week. He’s a big-game player, and I have little doubt about his ability to will himself into the weekend even if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Zak: Rory McIlroy. He finished T2 after driving it pretty average last week at Renaissance. I think he’ll have sorted out his preferred ballflight these last few days and will be plenty good enough to shoot two under each day. 

Surprising cut-missers

4. Of the tournament favorites, who’s going to surprise us by heading home on Friday night?

Dethier: Do I expect Bryson DeChambeau to miss the cut? No — he’s really good at golf. But his driving accuracy has quietly tailed off his last several events; if he can’t hit it where he’s looking this week he’ll quickly find himself in trouble.

Colgan: Viktor Hovland. He’s played well in this event, and he’s been trending in the right direction recently. But his driver has been his biggest issue through the first six months of 2025, and this is not the course to miss with the driver.

Zak: Collin Morikawa. He’s a fantastic golfer but he’s a man in transition right now. His first round with Billy Foster on the bag was brilliant. His second was bad enough to miss the cut in Scotland. I think he gets right by the end of the Tour season, but something doesn’t add up with the caddie changes this week. 

Picks to win

5. Time for the big one: Who’s going to win? 

Dethier: Tommy Fleetwood (22-1). Only fitting that his first PGA Tour win will come in the UK.

Colgan: Jon Rahm (11-1). I was going to pick Rahm before he became the winner of a little GOLF.com tradition that involves picking the first pro you see in town during a major week. Then Rahmbo photobombed me and Dylan at the Harbour Bar on Tuesday night. Now he’s a lock.

Zak: Colgan is correct with his Rahm pick. But I’ll choose someone else just for sport: Sepp Straka (50-1) wins. Yeah, you heard me! The big Austrian is a ball-striking wizard and although he’s missed all three major cuts this year, that seems weird more than predictive; he has continued to play well on every other stage. Who will be bold enough to actually back him, though?

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Below, you can see the top 20 and ties in the Open Championship betting odds as of Monday afternoon, or download the Fanatics Sportsbook app to see the full list of odds and bets for this week.

2025 Open Championship odds

Scottie Scheffler (+450)

Rory McIlroy (+700) 

Jon Rahm (+1,200) 

Bryson DeChambeau (+2,000) 

Tommy Fleetwood (+2,300) 

Xander Schauffele (+2,500) 

Ludvig Aberg (+2,800) 

Tyrrell Hatton (+2,800) 

Collin Morikawa (+3,000) 

Robert MacIntyre (+3,000) 

Shane Lowry (+3,000)

Viktor Hovland (+3,000) 

Sepp Straka (+3,250) 

Corey Conners (+4,250) 

Maverick McNealy (+4,250)

Adam Scott (+4,500) 

Justin Rose (+4,500) 

Joaquin Niemann (+5,000) 

Justin Thomas (+5,000) 

Russell Henley (+5,000)