An eagle is seen on the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, the main offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on Sept. 16, 2025 in Washington, DC, U.S.
Kevin Dietsch | Getty Images News | Getty Images
If it feels like we have lived through a filler episode before the big season finale, well, that’s because it’s fairly accurate.
Investors are anticipating the conclusion of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s meeting Wednesday, when they get to hear its interest rate decision and Chair Jerome Powell’s (arguably more important) press conference.
Markets were hence in an awkward limbo Tuesday. U.S. stocks declined, but only mildly. The S&P 500 dipped 0.13% — but still closed above the 6,600 level it broke Monday — and even hit a fresh intraday record earlier in the session.
In other words, investors didn’t seem to want to make any big moves before the Fed’s meeting ends.
Even news that broke yesterday stateside — while unrelated to the central bank and interest rates — were focused on casting an eye to the future rather than immediate developments. Further U.S.-China trade talks will happen before November, while President Donald Trump extended, for the fourth time, the deadline for ByteDance to divest TikTok’s U.S. business.
All of that contributed to the feeling of watching the credits roll just as a cliffhanger occurred.
(Spoiler alert: There’ll almost definitely be a 25 basis points rate cut — an extra-large 50 point slash is unlikely, unless the “outies” of some Fed officials overpower their independent “innies.”)
What you need to know today
China maintains strict control over rare earths. Foreign companies are still finding it hard to access those minerals, with one losing “millions of euros,” according to the European Chamber of Commerce in China on Monday.
Baidu shares spike nearly 16% Wednesday. An artificial intelligence-related deal with a state-owned enterprise, advancements in the Baidu’s AI models and an offshore bond offering were events that contributed to investor enthusiasm.
Japan’s exports slow their decline. Trade with Asia and Western Europe climbed in August, which helped offset further drops in exports to the U.S. Overall, shipments fell 0.1% year on year, lower than expected.
U.S. stocks slip ahead of Fed meeting. All major indexes dipped slightly Tuesday, with tech shares such as Nvidia and Microsoft pulling back. Asia-Pacific markets were mixed Wednesday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Tech index surged as Baidu shares jumped.
[PRO] AI leaders in China are emerging. Mainland companies have been monetizing generative AI in the past two years, making it clearer which ones are succeeding. UBS has picked two of its favorites that look like they still have room to run.
And finally…
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at Jackson Hole on Aug. 22, 2025 in Wyoming.
David A. Grogan | CNBC
The Federal Reserve meets this week with some big items on the agenda: An important rate decision and forecast of what’s ahead, combined with a healthy dose of political intrigue uncommon for central bank policymakers.
On the monetary side, the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday will release its ruling on where it will set the overnight borrowing rate. Politically, there will be one new Fed governor, President Donald Trump’s appointee Stephen Miran, who almost certainly will dissent from the widely expected decision to lower the federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point, opting for an even bigger cut.
— Jeff Cox
