The Oklahoma Sooners entered the 2025 season with high expectations, going into their fourth full year under head coach Brent Venables. With a new offensive coordinator in Ben Arbuckle and the emergence of quarterback John Mateer, fans believed the Sooners were ready to make noise in their first year in the SEC.
However, after a promising 5-0 start, Oklahoma’s momentum has hit turbulence. A midseason injury to Mateer and a recent loss to Ole Miss have drastically altered their postseason outlook.
Let’s break down what that means for the Sooners’ chances to win the SEC in 2025.
Breaking Down the Oklahoma Sooners’ Championship Chances in 2025
Oklahoma’s 2025 Season So Far
Oklahoma opened the season looking like a legitimate title contender. The Sooners’ offense was fast, creative, and explosive, reflective of Arbuckle’s Air Raid influence from his time at Washington State. Mateer looked the part of a Heisman candidate after marquee wins over Michigan and Auburn, throwing for over 1,200 yards and 12 total touchdowns through the first four games. But the season took a turn in that Auburn game, when Mateer suffered a hand injury that required surgery. Initially ruled out for four to six weeks, Mateer stunned everyone by returning just two and a half weeks later to face Texas in the Red River Rivalry. His toughness drew praise, but his play since returning has clearly been affected. Since that game, Oklahoma has dropped two of its last three, with Mateer struggling to regain his early-season rhythm. As a result, the Sooners’ SEC title hopes have taken a measurable hit.
Pre-Ole Miss Loss: Sooners Were Still in the Hunt
Before Saturday’s game against Ole Miss, the Sooners’ projected win total sat at 8.57, reflecting their strong start and competitive standing in the conference. They still had a mathematical shot at reaching the SEC Championship Game and were the favorites in the matchup despite Ole Miss being ranked higher. This could be attributed to how well the Sooners have performed at home, using fan energy to their advantage, as well as the distractions the team faced with talks of Coach Lane Kiffin possibly taking the Florida Gators coaching position. According to PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter, the Sooners had:
- a 7.7% chance to make the SEC Championship Game
- a 3.48% chance to win the SEC title
Post-Ole Miss Loss: A Major Drop
However, the Sooners lost to the Rebels 34-26. Oklahoma’s expected win total also slipped to 8.06, which may seem minor, but in a conference as competitive as the SEC, that single-game swing can be the difference between a championship berth and another season of “what ifs.” The defeat dropped Oklahoma’s title probabilities to:
- 0.87% chance to make the SEC Championship Game
- 0.38% chance to win the SEC
Remaining Schedule: Brutal Road Ahead
That’s a gauntlet by any measure, and it’s exactly why Oklahoma’s path to Atlanta now looks like an uphill climb. The schedule will challenge this team in every aspect, though it gives them a little leeway for a possible three-loss College Football Playoff appearance. If Oklahoma wants to climb back into contention, the path won’t be easy. The Sooners face four ranked opponents remaining:
- at Tennessee
- at Alabama
- vs. LSU
- vs. Missouri
Can Oklahoma Still Make a Run?
There’s still a sliver of hope. If the Sooners win out, finishing the regular season with marquee wins over Alabama, LSU, and Tennessee, their résumé could still catch the attention of the College Football Playoff committee, especially given the difficulty of their schedule. Even with another loss, Oklahoma could remain in the playoff conversation depending on how chaos unfolds elsewhere across the SEC and the national landscape.
For Venables’ team, it all starts with getting Mateer healthy and consistent again. When he’s right, Oklahoma’s offense can compete with anyone in the country.
The Verdict
Oklahoma’s loss to Ole Miss was a major setback, slashing their title odds and tightening their margin for error. But this team has already shown toughness, with its quarterback returning from injury and a roster that refuses to quit. With the heart of their SEC schedule still ahead, Oklahoma’s championship hopes are slim, less than 1% by the numbers, but their fight isn’t over. The Sooners have proven before that they thrive when the odds are stacked against them..
