Let’s review the Senate plan, the House Plan, and Trump’s Plan.
Competing Plans
- Trump: “Just Say NO.” NO means the Nuclear Option. Kill the Filibuster.
- Senate: Pass funding bills but promise a vote on Obamacare extensions.
- House: Wait. Refuse to even agree to have a vote on Obamacare extensions.
Plan Problems
- Trump: Senate Republicans will not go along. They rightfully fear what may happen the next time Democrats are in control.
- Senate. Why should Democrats accept a promise of a vote on Obamacare when they know the result? Besides, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R., S.D.) is making a promise that is not his to make. House Speaker Mike Mike Johnson (R., La.) said he will not make any guarantees on holding even a vote.
- House: The House appears to be the immovable object.
The Democrat’s Alternative
The Democrat’s alternative plan is to restore Obamacare funding to 400 percent of the poverty level.
Democrats may be even more emboldened after Tuesday’s disastrous Republican results in elections in New York City, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, California, Georgia, and Texas.
Democrats Set to Block New GOP Proposal to End Shutdown
The Wall Street Journal reports Emboldened Democrats Set to Block New GOP Proposal to End Shutdown
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R., S.D.) has set up a Friday vote that aims to fund most of the government through as long as January while simultaneously passing a trio of full-year bills funding military construction and veterans programs; the legislative branch; and the U.S. Agriculture Department. But the timing of that vote was still in doubt, with many shifting parts of the proposal still in play.
The package, if enacted, would reopen the government temporarily and provide pay for embattled federal workers, including air-traffic controllers, likely alleviating flight delays and cancellations driven by absenteeism. Because the measure funds the Agriculture Department for the full fiscal year, it would end worries over food-aid funding for millions of people.
Mish Comment: This would be a Republican victory, but why would Democrats accept it?
As Friday began, Democrats and Republicans were still at odds over the particulars of the legislation, pointing to a bumpy day ahead. Among other things, Senate Democrats are seeking to reverse the layoffs that the Trump administration initiated at the start of the shutdown as well as to undo the cuts to infrastructure projects targeted at blue states. They also want to void “pocket rescissions”—the maneuvers that White House budget chief Russ Vought used to claw back congressionally appropriated funds at the end of the last fiscal year.
Mish Comment: Democrats have upped the ante and now want more than just Obamacare.
On Friday morning, Trump renewed that pressure in a social-media post: “Just say NO (Nuclear Option!). TERMINATE THE FILIBUSTER!” Thune has opposed eliminating the filibuster and said such a proposal lacked enough Republican support anyway. But Trump’s repeated hammering on the issue could dent lawmakers’ resolve.
Mish Comment: NO! is going nowhere, for good reason.
Thune has promised to negotiate on the subsidies after the government reopens and has also offered a guaranteed vote, but not a guaranteed outcome. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R., La.) said this week that he wasn’t making any guarantees on holding even a vote.
Mish Comment: Thune is making promises that are not his to make. And even if the Senate would go along with them, Johnson has a different form of no!
Democrats say that the Trump administration is intentionally making the shutdown worse. A judge in Rhode Island ordered the Trump administration to pay food benefits for November after the administration said it didn’t have enough funding to cover the full amount. Sen. Patty Murray (D., Wash.), the top Democrat on the Senate Appropriations Committee, said in a social-media post that she had “never seen an American President so desperate to force children and seniors to go hungry.”
Mish Comment: The question is who will get the blame. Republicans and Democrats both think the other will get the blame. As anger, builds the Democrats appear to be winning the blame game.
The Improbable Math on Killing or Ending the Filibuster
It takes 60 votes to get around a filibuster but only 51 to kill the filibuster outright. Does that seem a bit odd?
Nonetheless, that’s where we are. But there are not 51 votes to kill the filibuster. Nor are there 60 votes to bypass the filibuster.
The Journal notes “Angus King of Maine, Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada and John Fetterman of Pennsylvania—have joined with Democrats in support of an interim spending bill. “
I believe the Journal means joined with Republicans.
With 53 Republicans on board, the addition of King, Masto, and Fetterman would give the Republicans 56 votes.
Sorry! 56 can kill a filibuster outright, but it’s not enough to end one. Moreover, Republican Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky has voted against the spending bill. That means that a total of eight Democrats would be needed to join with Republicans to reach 60.
Votes Against Killing the Filibuster
- 47 Democrats/Independents
- Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R., S.D.)
- Sen. Thom Tillis (R., N.C.)
- Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R., Alaska)
- Sen. James Lankford (R., Okla.)
- Sen. John Cornyn (R., Texas)
That’s a minimum of 52 and I am confident we can add Rand Paul to the list.
I discussed Trump’s “NO!” idea in Trump Tells Senate Republicans to Kill the Filibuster
Trump’s plan is a nonstarter. Thune’s Senate plan is a nonstarter. Johnson’s House plan is a nonstarter.
Meanwhile there are 47 hypocrite Democrat senators who wanted to end the Filibuster when Biden was in the White House but don’t want to now.
Conclusion
All plans have major flaws. It’s not about persuading one or two votes which Trump might be able to do.
Something has to give, but it’s not clear what that something is.
Historically, the compromise is more of this for more of that. I expect a rise in deficit spending will result from this impasse.
How Bad an Evening Did Republicans Have in Yesterday’s Elections?
In case you missed it, please see How Bad an Evening Did Republicans Have in Yesterday’s Elections?
That’s what has angered Trump and emboldened Democrats.
