Authored by Steffan Szumowski via The Nuclear Review
I recently enjoyed a conversation with an American energy industry executive who has lived and worked in Saudi Arabia for a number of years. He provided some unique insight into the US nuclear industry’s potential opportunities with Saudi Arabia.
When the future King of Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) visits the White House on November 18th, he will bring with him a number of major agreements and business deals. Among these may be the long-awaited US-Saudi Nuclear Energy Cooperation Agreement (referred to as a “123 Agreement“, the section of the Atomic Energy Act that governs US technology transfer to international partners). That agreement, under discussion for over a decade, appears to be close to finalization and may lead to significant business for US nuclear companies.This pact would enable the transfer of US nuclear technology, materials, and expertise to Saudi Arabia, facilitating Riyadh’s civil nuclear program that aims to build at least two large pressurized water reactors (PWRs) on the Arabian Gulf under a new holding company, the Duwayhin Nuclear Energy Company (DNEC).
DNEC submitted a site license application to the Saudi Nuclear and Radiological Regulatory Commission (NRRC) in May 2022 for its flagship Duwaiheen Nuclear Power Plant on the Gulf coast, targeting an initial capacity of 2.8 GW. Observers note that 2.8 GW matches the output of two of KEPCO’s AP-1400 reactors, the same built across the border in UAE, leading many to speculate that the Koreans have been in the lead for supplying the Saudi’s nuclear plant technology.
The associated tender for the two Duwaiheen plants, launched in 2022, has faced multiple delays. Initially slated for bids in April 2024, the deadline shifted repeatedly and still remains pending. Analysts have understood it to be the Saudi’s intention to delay selection until after a 123 Agreement is signed in order to enable US companies to bid on the project and to ensure that the Saudi program has a nod of approval from the US.
If President Trump and MBS complete a 123 Agreement, it could manifest in a multibillion-dollar windfall for US firms (similar to the recent nuclear investments announced by Japan and South Korea), positioning them as frontrunners for the first two DNEC large scale reactors and in the long term capture a large share of the nascent Saudi nuclear market. This would mark a major departure from the UAE’s program where KEPCO was the big winner and US firms like Westinghouse and Holtec have only a fraction of the total market. If Riyadh, as likely desired by the Trump administration, is able to direct contracts preferentially to American partners, eschewing rivals like KEPCO, Russia’s Rosatom or China’s CNNC, key beneficiaries emerge.
Westinghouse, owned by Brookfield and Cameco, stands to dominate with its AP1000 design. With Trump administration nudging, Westinghouse could supplant KEPCO’s apparent lead and flip the script from how the Emirati program developed (where KEPCO led and Westinghouse followed as a tech and services provider). In fact, Korean news agencies reported last month that US officials have pressured the Korean government for KEPCO to take a back-seat in the Saudi program and act in a supporting role for AP1000 deployment at Duwaiheen.
Another likely winner is Bechtel, the privately-held American construction giant that is closely tied to Westinghouse’s AP1000 projects. Bechtel is one of the largest American players in the Saudi market, having been there since the 1940s and serving as a trusted construction partner in the Kingdom. Bechtel is the most likely winner of EPC contracts if the Saudis choose to buy American. Some characterize Bechtel’s structure and leadership in Saudi Arabia as a “dream team” for the development of American nuclear projects in Saudi Arabia.
Other companies to watch include Holtec, who has done well in UAE and has developed a reputation as a reliable partner in spent fuel management. X-energy stands out among new nuclear companies, as well. Their Chairman, Kam Ghaffarian, is well respected in Saudi Arabia for the success of his space company, Axiom, who launched two Saudi astronauts into orbit in 2023, including the first woman Saudi astronaut. Ghaffarian could turn that goodwill into business for X-energy’s Xe-100 SMR design and their TRISO-X fuel project.
Broader implications ripple outward: US exporters gain market share in a region eyeing 20 GW of nuclear by 2030, hedging oil volatility and exporting high-skill jobs. For Saudi, it means technology transfer, local content mandates (jobs and contracts for Saudis and Saudi companies) and further energy independence, reducing 30% of domestic oil burn and making that oil available for exports (and revenue).
Risks of the 123 Agreement not happening persist. Continued back-and-forth over Saudi enrichment and fuel cycle desires have long slowed progress. Some analysts believe those issues have been resolved or deferred. Additional risk could come from Congress that, although not required to approve a 123 Agreement, could take action to review or stall the agreement, derailing follow-on opportunities for US business. But, a November signing would signal thawed ties and increasing interest in how US nuclear companies can gain international market share via Saudi Arabia, the world’s energy powerhouse.
With MBS’s visit looming, stakeholders should watch closely: a deal struck could impact nuclear-related commodities and US nuclear order books.
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