The Big Ten Championship Game is on the horizon, but it’s still undecided which teams make the cut. With up to seven teams still in contention, there is plenty to play for over the final three weeks. With the help of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine who is still in the hunt and what their chances are.
Which Teams Are Still Competing to Play in the Big Ten Championship Game?
Entering Week 12, there were seven Big Ten teams with two or fewer losses in conference play. With both Indiana and Ohio State undefeated in conference play and Oregon, Michigan, and USC all with just one loss each, two losses is the maximum that any team can have if they want to contest the Big Ten Championship Game.
The six teams that are on two or fewer conference losses after Oregon took down Minnesota in dominant fashion on Friday night, and their chances according to the PFSN FPM of making the Big Ten Championship Game, are (conference record, overall record):
- Indiana (10-0, 7-0): 90.8%
- Ohio State (9-0, 6-0): 71.1%
- Oregon (9-1, 6-1): 21.2%
- Michigan (7-2, 5-1): 8.9%
- USC (7-2, 5-1): 7.5%
- Iowa (6-3, 4-2): 0.4%
Minnesota’s loss to Oregon eliminated them from contention, while a loss for Iowa against USC will prevent them from reaching Lucas Oil Stadium for the Big Ten Championship Game.
Oregon’s chances were boosted with its Friday night win, but both the Ducks and USC are still on the outside looking in, with their Big Ten Championship destiny very much resting in the hands of Ohio State and Indiana. If the Buckeyes and Hoosiers win out, neither team can secure a spot in Indianapolis.
Indiana’s Big Ten Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Indiana a 90.8% chance of playing in the Big Ten Championship Game. Their remaining conference games are vs. Wisconsin (3-6, 1-5) and at Purdue (2-8, 0-7).
The Hoosiers have the easiest path forward among all conference title contenders; they play two of the four worst teams in the conference to close out the regular season. There’s an excellent chance that they not only make the title game but also go undefeated in the regular season in the process.
If the Hoosiers were to miss the title game, it would take an epic collapse from this point onward. Looking at how Curt Cignetti has revitalized the Hoosiers squad, that doesn’t seem likely.
Ohio State’s Big Ten Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Ohio State a 71.1% chance of playing in the Big Ten Championship Game. Their remaining conference games are vs. UCLA (3-6, 3-3), vs. Rutgers (5-5, 2-5), and at Michigan (7-2, 5-1).
As long as Ohio State takes care of business against UCLA and Rutgers, it’ll have the inside track for the Big Ten Championship game. A loss against Michigan in Week 14, however, opens the door for both Michigan and USC to re-enter the conversation, if the Trojans manage to win out.
Oregon’s Big Ten Championship Game Chances
After defeating Minnesota on Friday night, PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Georgia a 21.2% chance of playing in the Big Ten Championship Game. Their remaining conference games are vs. USC (7-2, 5-1) and at Washington (6-3, 3-3).
Of the remaining Big Ten Championship contenders, the Ducks have perhaps the hardest road ahead. The Friday night win was a nice statement after nearly falling to Iowa. Still, the race to the Big Ten Championship is a numbers game, not an eye test, and ultimately, if the Hoosiers and Buckeyes take care of business, they’ll be able to shut out Oregon from the contest.
Michigan’s Big Ten Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Michigan an 8.9% chance of playing in the Big Ten Championship Game. Their remaining conference games are at Northwestern (5-4, 3-3), at Maryland (4-5, 1-5), and vs. Ohio State (9-0, 6-0).
On the surface, Michigan’s road to the Big Ten Championships is fairly simple. The Wolverines need to win against Ohio State in Week 14, or they’re out. Even with that circled date, however, there are still other factors at play.
USC — a fellow Big Ten contender with one conference loss — has the tiebreaker win over Michigan, so if the two teams stay equal in the pecking order and it comes down to those two, the Trojans win the tiebreaker equation. Thus, if USC wins out, Michigan will have little to play for outside of knocking off its rival Buckeyes (which is incentive enough, to be fair).
However, if USC drops one of its games against Iowa and Oregon, and if Michigan wins against Northwestern and Maryland, Michigan walks into Week 14 with a chance to unseat the Buckeyes as the second Big Ten title game competitor.
On paper, the Buckeyes look like the heavy favorites — but Sherrone Moore’s squad beat another favored Buckeyes team at the end of last season, and they’ll have home field advantage this time.
USC’s Big Ten Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives USC a 7.5% chance of playing in the Big Ten Championship Game. Their remaining conference games are vs. Iowa (6-3, 4-2), at Oregon (8-1, 5-1), and vs. UCLA (3-6, 3-3).
USC essentially needs to win this week against Iowa. They’d still have a microscopic mathematical chance with two conference losses, but their fate would be even less in their hands, with a tough test against Oregon on deck.
The Trojans’ best chance is if they win out, but even then, they need help from Michigan in Week 14. If the Wolverines beat Ohio State that week, they hand OSU a loss that drops the Buckeyes into the conference scrum. And in a tiebreaker exercise, USC has the head-to-head victory over Michigan.
Looking at how Ohio State has played this year, it would take a miracle for things to fall USC’s way — but college football is home to chaos every year.
Iowa’s Big Ten Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Iowa a 0.4% chance of playing in the Big Ten Championship Game. Their remaining conference games are at USC (7-2, 5-1), vs. Michigan State (3-6, 0-6), and at Nebraska (7-3, 4-3).
The Hawkeyes have to take this one week at a time — because they aren’t making the Big Ten Championship without a win against USC in Week 12. Even with a win, they need help from other teams, but a loss against the Trojans ends the conversation entirely.
How Do the Big Ten Championship Tiebreaker Rules Work?
If two teams are tied for first place in the standings, they will both participate in the Championship Game. However, the tiebreaking procedure outlined below will be used to determine which team is considered the home team and which is considered the road team. In the event of a tie for second place in the standings, the following process will be followed to decide who will play in the Big Ten Championship Game.
1) The winner of any head-to-head matchup between the two teams (if applicable).
2) Win percentage against common opponents within the conference.
3) Win percentage against common opponents based on the order of finish. This tiebreaker examines each opponent individually, progressing from top to bottom in the table. If a group of common opponents is tied, then the head-to-head tiebreaker will be applied for that tie, and if it cannot split them, the combined record against the tied teams will be used.
4) The combined record of all conference opponents for each team. If, for any reason, one team has played fewer than nine conference games, the winning percentage will be used as opposed to the record.
5) Each team’s ranking by SportsSource Analytics’ capped relative total scoring margin versus all Conference opponents among tied teams.
6) Random draw.
Big Ten Three (or More) Team Tiebreakers
If, after any step in the following procedure, one or two teams are either superior or inferior to the others, they are removed from the tiebreaking procedure, and the remaining teams either go to the two-team tiebreaker or return to the start of the three-team tiebreaking procedure.
If two teams are tied for first place in the standings, they will both participate in the Championship Game. However, the tiebreaking procedure outlined below will be used to determine which team is considered the home team and which is considered the road team.
In the event of a tie for second place in the standings, the following process will be followed to decide who will play in the Big Ten Championship Game.
1) The winner of any head-to-head matchup between the two teams (if applicable).
2) Win percentage against common opponents within the conference.
3) Win percentage against common opponents based on the order of finish. This tiebreaker examines each opponent individually, progressing from top to bottom in the table, to identify a common opponent where one team has a superior result to the other.
5) The combined record of all conference opponents for each team. If, for any reason, one team has played fewer than nine conference games, the winning percentage will be used as opposed to the record.
6) Each team’s ranking by SportsSource Analytics’ capped relative total scoring margin versus all Conference opponents among tied teams.
7) Random draw.
If multiple teams are tied for top spot in the Big Ten standings, and two teams emerge as superior after any step, those two teams shall contest the Big Ten Championship Game. A two-team tiebreaker will be applied to determine the home and road designation.
