My sources are confirming the new conventional wisdom that Speaker Pelosi and Leader Reid are working to “ping pong” the health bill rather than go to conference. I think it might be helpful to work through the mechanics of both paths.

I will describe the ping pong and conference floor procedures, then what typically happens behind the scenes. I will also provide a little analysis of the current situation. Today’s post is about explaining the process. I will follow up tomorrow with an update of my projections for health care reform.

Updates to reflect technical corrections and updated intel are in green.

Ping pong procedure

The formal term is “messages between the Houses.” This is procedurally far simpler than a conference. In practical terms for this bill, here’s what I would expect.

On December 29th, the Senate sent the bill it passed on Christmas Eve to the House. A new amendment to that bill will be negotiated by Democratic Congressional leaders, Committee Chairs, and the President’s staff. I expect Speaker Pelosi, Leader Reid, and their staffs will be the most important players in these negotiations.

The House will then try to pass a rule that brings up the Senate-passed bill, makes one amendment (the negotiated agreement) in order, and passes the bill with the new deal as an amendment. I would expect three two votes after the amendment is negotiated, and the Speaker will need to hold a majority of the House for each vote. (Technically, the House would “move to concur with the Senate bill with an amendment.”)

That bill will then be sent to the Senate. Leader Reid can, at his discretion, move to proceed to the “House message” (think of it as the House-passed bill containing only the new negotiated agreement). That House-passed bill is then debatable and amendable in the Senate. This means Leader Reid would need 60 votes to (a) block additional amendments and (b) shut off a likely Republican filibuster. I assume Leader Reid would block Republican amendments by a procedural move called filling the amendment tree, then file cloture on the House-passed bill. The Senate would take up to three at least two votes: a majority vote on the motion to proceed to the House message, a 60-vote cloture vote two days after the Senate process began, and a majority final passage vote the day after that. In addition, there will likely be points of order available against the bill (message) in the Senate. At least one of these could require 60 votes to waive.

So you have six at least five votes:

  1. A House floor vote on the rule.
  2. A House floor vote on the amendment (“the deal”).
  3. A House floor vote on final passage: the House “agrees with an amendment to the Senate amendment.”
  4. (maybe) A Senate vote on the motion to proceed to the House-passed bill (the “House message.”)
  5. A Senate vote on cloture (needs 60).
  6. A Senate vote on final passage (needs 51).

The important and hardest votes are #2 and #5.

Conference floor procedure

On Christmas Eve, the Senate passed H.R. 3590, containing the text of the Reid amendment as modified by a month of debate, as the Senate version of the bill.

Had Leader Reid tried to go to conference, he would have had to offer three motions, in sequence. They are:

  1. I move the Senate insist on its amendment