Ever a conference of confusion and chaos, the Big 12 entered Week 12 with as many as 11 teams capable of reaching the title game in Arlington. Thankfully for fans, some results ensured that the number of potential contenders was whittled down to a more manageable seven remaining protagonists.
With the help of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine who is still in the mix and what their chances are of making it to Arlington.
Which Teams Are Still Competing to Play in the Big 12 Championship Game?
Following an exciting slate that culminated with the BYU Cougars taking care of business against the TCU Horned Frogs, the Iowa State Cyclones, Kansas State Wildcats, and Baylor Bears were eliminated from Big 12 Championship Game contention.
The seven teams who are still mathematically capable of playing in the title game, and their chances according to the PFSN FPM of making the Big 12 Championship Game are (conference record, overall record):
- Texas Tech (7-1, 10-1): 97.0%
- BYU (6-1, 9-1): 71.7%
- Arizona State (5-2, 7-3): 11.3%
- Cincinnati (5-2, 7-3): 8.6%
- Utah (5-2, 8-2): 6.3%
- Houston (5-2, 8-2): 5.1%
- Arizona (4-3, 6-3): 0.1%
Texas Tech’s Big 12 Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Texas Tech a 97.0% chance of playing in the Big 12 Championship Game. Their remaining conference game is at West Virginia.
A win for Texas Tech this week puts them on the verge of clinching a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game. However, with BYU winning, the Red Raiders still need to continue their seemingly imperious march.
If Texas Tech loses, then they lose control of their own destiny. Having already lost to Arizona State, the tiebreaker situation becomes complicated among the two-loss teams, even with Texas Tech having wins over Houston, BYU, and Utah.
BYU’s Big 12 Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives BYU a 71.7% chance of playing in the Big 12 Championship Game. Their remaining conference games are at Cincinnati and vs. UCF.
BYU’s loss to Texas Tech has given them no margin for error over the final three weeks. Slipping to two losses could be too many, but Cincinnati’s loss in Week 12 means it will come down to tiebreakers. A win this week, coupled with the Cincinnati loss, would allow BYU to put itself on the verge of the Big 12 Championship Game if it beats Cincinnati next week.
Cincinnati’s Big 12 Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Cincinnati an 8.6% chance of playing in the Big 12 Championship Game after their loss to Arizona in Week 12. Their remaining conference games are vs. BYU and at TCU.
Cincinnati cannot be eliminated in Week 12, but its loss this week puts it on the verge of elimination. By losing this week, if Texas Tech and BYU win, it would mean a Cincinnati loss next week could result in their elimination. A loss this week also adds a huge amount of difficulty for Cincinnati, as they are on two losses, with the potential that Utah is also on two losses, having won the head-to-head matchup over Cincinnati last week.
Arizona State’s Big 12 Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Arizona State an 11.3% chance of playing in the Big 12 Championship Game. Their remaining conference games are at Colorado and vs. Arizona.
Arizona State needs to win out to keep itself in the running for a realistic chance of winning the conference. At two losses, they have an opportunity to be in the mix if one of BYU and Texas Tech drops a game. They handed Texas Tech their only loss, which could help them in common opponent tiebreakers, especially as two of their losses came against other two-loss teams who could be in that common opponent tiebreaker.
This is where the tiebreaker situation becomes messy, as those losses to Utah and Houston hurt Arizona State in the head-to-head comparison. However, if the tiebreaker is convoluted enough, those two games could be negated in a common opponents tiebreaker. For any of that to matter, Arizona State needs to finish at 7-2 in the conference.
Houston’s Big 12 Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Houston a 5.1% chance of playing in the Big 12 Championship Game. Their remaining conference games are vs. TCU and at Baylor.
Houston is on a bye this week, so all they can do is sit back and hope chaos occurs around them. In an ideal world, Houston would see all the one or two-loss teams lose this week while they are on bye. Their only head-to-head loss of consequence is Texas Tech, so they want Texas Tech to get out of the way to avoid being in a tiebreaker where that head-to-head could haunt them.
Utah’s Big 12 Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Utah a 6.3% chance of playing in the Big 12 Championship Game. Their remaining conference games are vs. Kansas State and at Kansas.
Utah is in a tough spot because it has losses to two of the one-loss teams in Texas Tech and BYU. That means if they ended up in a two- or three-way tiebreaker with either of those teams, they would be out of luck. However, if one or both of those teams drop a game each, then those losses could be negated in a convoluted multi-team tiebreaker when it comes to record against common conference opponents.
They defeated Cincinnati last week, so they do at least have a tiebreaker advantage there. However, for it to matter, BYU or Texas Tech would need to drop a game in the remaining two weeks.
How Do the Big 12 Championship Tiebreaker Rules Work?
If two teams are tied for first place in the standings, they will both participate in the Championship Game. However, the tiebreaking procedure outlined below will be used to determine which team is considered the home team and which is considered the road team. In the event of a tie for second place in the standings, the following process will be followed to decide who will play in the Big 12 Championship Game.
1) The winner of any head-to-head matchup between the two teams (if applicable).
2) Win percentage against common opponents within the conference.
3) Win percentage against common opponents based on the order of finish. This tiebreaker examines each opponent individually, progressing from top to bottom in the table. If a group of common opponents is tied, then the record against the entire group is considered rather than splitting them individually.
4) The combined record of all conference opponents for each team. If, for any reason, one team has played fewer than nine conference games, the winning percentage will be used as opposed to the record.
5) The total number of wins in the full 12-game season (including all non-conference games). Only one win against FCS opponents will be considered, and any games exempt from counting against the annual maximum number of games by NCAA rules will not be included.
6) The highest ranking by SportsSource Analytics’ Team Rating Score following the regular season.
7) Coin toss.
Big 12 Three (or More) Team Tiebreakers
If, after any step in the following procedure, one or two teams are either superior or inferior to the others, they are removed from the tiebreaking procedure, and the remaining teams either go to the two-team tiebreaker or return to the start of the three-team tiebreaking procedure.
1) If all teams played each other, then the records for those teams in those games would be compared.
2) If all the teams did not play each other, but one team either defeated or was defeated by ALL the other teams, they shall be removed from the tiebreaking procedure.
3) Winning percentage of all teams against common conference opponents among all the teams involved in the tie.
4) The combined record of all conference opponents for each team. If, for any reason, one team has played fewer than nine conference games, the winning percentage will be used as opposed to the record.
5) The total number of wins in the full 12-game season (including all non-conference games). Only one win against FCS opponents will be considered, and any games exempt from counting against the annual maximum number of games by NCAA rules will not be included.
6) Each team’s ranking by SportsSource Analytics’ Team Rating Score following the regular season.
7) Coin toss.
If multiple teams are tied for top spot in the Big 12 standings, and two teams emerge as superior after any step, those two teams shall contest the Big 12 Championship Game. A two-team tiebreaker will be applied to determine the home and road designation.
