Russia is no surprise. So, the ball is in Trump’s court.
Now What?
The Wall Street Journal reports Russia Stuck to Its Demands on Ukraine.
For the past four years, Russia has stuck by a single set of demands for ending its war in Ukraine. Now, Moscow is sitting back and reaping the fruits of its strategy, as President Trump presses a peace plan that broadly conforms with its demands.
The latest 28-point document that Trump has championed as a path to ending the war includes some of Russia’s most important conditions. Those terms include giving Russia more land in Ukraine’s east, defanging Ukraine’s military and closing off the path for Kyiv to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
The points in the document—and the uproar they have caused in Europe and Ukraine—bring Russia closer to some of its longest-sought foreign-policy goals of limiting the expansion of NATO while pushing the U.S., Europe and Kyiv further from one another.
Trump said Saturday that he might be open to changes to the plan following criticism from Europe and Kyiv.
“The Russians have remained very consistent,” said Thomas Graham, a distinguished fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “If diplomacy will give them what they want, they’ll take it. Otherwise, they’re prepared to continue fighting on the battlefield.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin said as much in comments to his security council Friday, when he praised the paper as a potential basis for a peace settlement. Trumpeting Russia’s recent battlefield success in eastern Ukraine, he warned that any refusal by Ukraine or its European allies would only prolong the war and pave the way for more Ukrainian losses.
“If Kyiv doesn’t want to discuss the proposals of President Trump, then they and the European warmongers should understand that [their battlefield failures] will inevitably repeat themselves on other key areas of the front,” he said.
“Overall, that’s fine with us, as it leads to achieving the goals of the special military operation by force,” he said, using Russia’s euphemism for its invasion.
“Putin is banking on a resumption of military hostilities,” said Abbas Gallyamov, a former Putin speechwriter who is now a Kremlin critic living abroad. “And with this agreement, Ukraine will emerge defenseless against him.”
Moscow, for example, is likely to back multiple pro-Russian candidates in a Ukrainian election organized under the terms of a peace agreement. Kyiv would be obliged to respond to any violations of electoral laws by such candidates and bar them from participating. Putin could then claim that the requirement for an open vote wasn’t met and use that as a reason to resume the invasion.
Likewise, the new plan says Ukraine must adopt “rules on religious tolerance,” opening the door for activity by the Ukrainian branch of the Russian Orthodox Church. Kyiv has banned the branch, describing it as a front for Moscow’s covert operations and espionage inside Ukraine.
Still, there are various points in the draft that don’t fully embrace Russia’s positions. Moscow has long insisted on a full disarmament of Ukraine’s military, but the deal instead stipulates a reduction in the size of the army to 600,000 troops—some 300,000 fewer than the current estimated number of active duty personnel.
The plan also doesn’t include any restrictions on Ukraine’s development and use of long-range weapons, a priority for Kyiv as it seeks to undermine Russia’s war economy with deep strikes against energy infrastructure and military facilities. Putin has sought to prevent a buildup of such arms by Ukraine, but the plan doesn’t appear to address that.
One-Sided Proposal
This setup was the obvious problem with the Trump’s plan in the first place.
Yesterday, I commented Trump to Revise Ukraine Peace Plan After Huge Wave of Criticism
The deal is not final yet says Trump.
Questions Abound
The deal was about as one-sided as it could get. No doubt, Russia was pleased with it.
Will Russia accept changes? Does Ukraine sill have to agree by Thursday to a deal nobody even knows?
We now have far more questions than answers.
Trump made a fundamental mistake announcing a deal, now backing off after near-universal complaints. He should have consulted someone before announcing a deal. Now he is retreating after one day.
I suspect many will say the deal was purposely bad so revisions will not look as bad. But will Russia accept changes?
Bonus question: Is any Trump deal ever final?
What’s In the Original Proposal?
For details of the previous lopsided deal, please see Trump Peace Plan Requires Ukraine to Cede Donetsk and Luhansk to Russia
Territory for peace or a total surrender?
Europe Lays Down Red Lines on Ukraine
I am of the opinion Europe is meaningless, if not counterproductive.
Nonetheless, let’s discuss the Politico report Europe lays down red lines on Ukraine in rebuke to Trump plan
In a statement following talks on the sidelines of a G20 summit of major economies in South Africa, von der Leyen laid out a series of red lines in response to proposals being put forward by President Donald Trump’s White House. The American blueprint suggests Ukraine should make territorial concessions to Moscow, halve the size of its military and give Washington a 50 percent cut on profits from reconstruction.
“Any credible and sustainable peace plan should first and foremost stop the killing and end the war, while not sowing the seeds for a future conflict,” von der Leyen said in the statement.
According to the Commission president, the EU has three key criteria for any peace deal: “First, borders cannot be changed by force. Second, as a sovereign nation there cannot be limitations on Ukraine’s armed forces that would leave the country vulnerable to future attack and thereby also undermining European security,” she said.
“Third, the centrality of the European Union in securing peace for Ukraine must be fully reflected,” said von der Leyen. “Ukraine must have the freedom and sovereign right to choose its own destiny. They have chosen a European destiny.”
Allies have held crisis talks during the summit in South Africa and EU leaders are due to hold further discussions on Monday during a joint visit to Angola. European Council President António Costa has welcomed U.S. efforts to end the war but warned the current proposal is merely “a basis which will require additional work.”
Red Line Enforcement
Q: How is the EU going to enforce anything?
A: It won’t and can’t
The EU does not have a budget to do anything. France and Italy are fiscal basket cases with no budget to do anything.
Besides, in what amounts to a fundamental flaw in the EU, it takes unanimous vote to do anything not specifically authorized by treaty.
At a minimum, Hungary would not go along. The EU is useless.
Trump’s Idle Threats
Trump has threatened Russia with sanctions multiple times (he backed down), with giving Ukraine long-range-missiles multiple times (he backed down), and with indirect sanctions on China and India over oil (again he backed down).
Is there a point to idle threats in which Putin is no doubt laughing?
So, if Putin will not agree to any changes, what will TACO-Trump, the big paper tiger do?
Here’s a musical tribute.
What Does Putin Have on Trump?
The key question of the day is: What Does Putin Have on Trump? Nothing? Something?
That question has been on my mind for months. Trump has made dozens of threats on Putin this year and backed off every one of them.
Is Trump that much of a paper-tiger blowhard, or is something else in play?
Either is plausible.
