Entering Week 14, the ACC Championship Game scenarios still have six potential teams that could fill the two available spots at Bank of America Stadium. No one has clinched a spot just yet, but two teams have the best odds if they can win in Week 14.
With the help of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine who is still in the mix and what their chances are of making it to the postseason.
Which Teams Are Still Competing to Play in the ACC Championship Game?
Entering the final week, six teams can still make it. Let’s take a look at the teams who are still in the mix, and their respective ACC Conference Game chances:
- Virginia (9-2, 6-1): 79.6%
- SMU (8-3, 6-1): 68.7%
- Duke (7-5, 6-2): 37.2%
- Miami (10-2, 6-2): 14.5%
- Georgia Tech (9-3, 6-2): 0%
- Pittsburgh (8-4, 6-2): 0%
These are the remaining games in the ACC in 2025:
- Virginia vs. Virginia Tech
Saturday, November 29 at 7:00 p.m. ET - California vs. SMU
Saturday, November 29 at 8:00 p.m. ET
Virginia’s ACC Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Virginia an 79.6% chance of playing in the ACC Championship Game. Their remaining conference game is against Virginia Tech. The PFSN College FPM gives them a 76.4% chance of winning that game.
If Virginia wins against Virginia Tech, then the Cavaliers will be in the ACC Championship game. If Virginia loses, Tony Elliott’s squad needs losses from SMU and Pittsburgh (which they have gotten), as well as a win from North Carolina against NC State, to retain their ACC title standing amidst tiebreakers.
SMU’s ACC Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives SMU a 68.7% chance of playing in the ACC Championship Game. Their remaining conference game is at California. The PFSN College FPM gives them a 68.7% chance of winning that game.
Like Virginia, SMU is in a “win-and-in” situation. If the Mustangs beat the Golden Bears on their road trip to the West Coast, they’ll be in the ACC Championship. If they lose, they’ll be out after Duke beat the Wake Forest Demon Deacons in Week 14.
Duke’s ACC Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Duke a 37.2% chance of playing in the ACC Championship Game after winning its season finale against Wake Forest. The Blue Devils ended the year with a 6-2 record in the ACC and 7-5 overall.
Virginia has a head-to-head win over Duke, but the Blue Devils can still take the second title game spot with a win and losses from both Pittsburgh and SMU. Additionally, if Virginia joins Pittsburgh with a loss, and North Carolina beats NC State, the winning percentage tiebreaker could flip in favor of Duke.
Miami’s ACC Championship Game Chances
Entering Week 14, PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gave Miami a 0.01% chance of playing in the ACC Championship Game, with multiple scenarios having to fall in place for them to overcome some significant barriers.
However, they took care of the main thing first, putting up a strong win over Pittsburgh in the early slate of games and now have a 14.5% chance of reaching the ACC Championship Game. With Duke beating Wake Forest, Miami now needs a Virginia loss, an SMU loss, and an NC State win to reach the title game.
Georgia Tech’s ACC Championship Game Chances
Entering Week 14 without any remaining ACC games, Georgia Tech had no control over the coming outcome, placing them at a significant disadvantage. They needed Virginia, SMU, and Duke to all lose in Week 14, while requiring an NC State win to throw another wrinkle into the mix.
Firstly, Pittsburgh’s loss to Miami was a serious spanner in the works for the Yellow Jackets. Then Duke beat Wake Forest, meaning that Georgia Tech can no longer reach the ACC Championship Game.
Pittsburgh’s ACC Championship Game Chances
Entering Week 14, PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gave Pittsburgh a 22.4% chance of playing in the ACC Championship Game. They needed one of SMU or Virginia to lose in order to even have a shot at the title, while taking care of business against the Miami Hurricanes.
MORE: Strength of Schedule for All 136 FBS College Football Teams
However, for the second successive week, the Panthers were humbled by a legitimate College Football Playoff contender, falling to a defeat against the Miami Hurricanes. As such, they can no longer reach the ACC Championship Game.
ACC Two-Team Tiebreakers
The ACC two-team tiebreakers could be used in the following situations: to break a tie for first place in the standings, to determine the “home” team for the ACC Championship Game, or in the event of a tie for second place in the standings, to determine the “road” team that participates in the ACC Championship Game.
The two-team tiebreakers will be applied in the following order:
1) The winner of any head-to-head matchup between the two teams (if applicable).
2) Win percentage against all common opponents.
3) Win percentage against common opponents based on the order of finish. This tiebreaker examines each opponent individually, progressing from top to bottom in the table, to identify a common opponent where one team has a superior result to the other.
4) Combined win percentage of each team’s conference opponents.
5) The team with the higher ranking by the Team Rating Score metric provided by SportSource Analytics, following the conclusion of all regular-season games.
6) A random draw.
ACC Three (or more) Team Tiebreakers
At each stage of the following procedure, if any team is eliminated from the tiebreak, then all remaining teams will start again from the first step in the process:
1) If all teams are common opponents, then the combined head-to-head win percentage is used.
2) If one team defeated or was defeated by all the others in the tiebreaker, they shall be removed at this step.
3) Win percentage against all common opponents.
4)Win percentage against common opponents based on the order of finish. This tiebreaker examines each opponent individually, progressing from top to bottom in the table, to identify a common opponent where one team has a superior result to the other.
5) Combined win percentage of each team’s conference opponents.
6) The team with the higher ranking by the Team Rating Score metric provided by SportSource Analytics, following the conclusion of all regular-season games.
7) A random draw.
