The Detroit Lions suffered a huge loss to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 15, which hurt their chances of making the playoffs.
Let’s take a closer look at the Lions’ chances of making the NFL Playoffs under Dan Campbell in 2025, and what needs to happen for them to make the cut coming into Week 17.
What Are the Detroit Lions’ Chances of Making the Playoffs and Winning the NFC North?
According to PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor, the Lions had a 0% chance of winning the NFC North and a 4.9% chance of making the playoffs before their game against the Minnesota Vikings.
Detroit’s NFL Playoff chances were on life support after their heartbreaking 29-24 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, but as the old saying goes: “So you’re saying there’s a chance.”
There’s only one outcome where the Lions make the NFL Playoffs, and it’s a tantalizing one in theory for Lions fans: They have to steal the No. 7 seed from the Green Bay Packers, who are currently situated with the final Playoff spot at 9-5-1.
#UPDATE: The Lions have been eliminated from playoff contention after their loss in Week 17 to the Vikings. The rest of the text in the article is based upon what the Lions needed to do to make the playoffs before their loss today.
The Packers are one-and-a-half games ahead of the Lions, and the Packers also own a two-game sweep of the Lions from earlier in the year. Thus, even if the Lions win and tie a game, while the Packers lose out, the Packers would still hold the head-to-head tiebreaker.
The only way the Lions unseat the Packers for the No. 7 seed in the NFC Playoffs is if:
- The Lions win out
- The Packers lose out
That’s the only outcome still in play for Detroit. The margin for error is very high, and even then, they need help from their bitter rival to get it done.
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The Lions will be regretting some of their midseason losses to key divisional opponents. Unfortunately, they can only look ahead and hope their competition can’t slam the door on their dwindling playoff hopes.
Lions’ Remaining 2025 Schedule
Detroit’s remaining schedule pits them against the division-leading Bears in the season finale, after a road clash with a scrappy Vikings squad.
The Lions squandered their final home game of the season against a tough but beatable Pittsburgh team, and are on the outside looking in as a result. With a loss against Minnesota, they are eliminated.
Conventional wisdom says Campbell’s squad should be able to win against the Vikings and keep their NFL Playoff hopes alive at least until Week 18, especially now that Minnesota will be forced to start undrafted rookie Max Brosmer at quarterback, after an injury to J.J. McCarthy.
Still, the Vikings can’t be counted out. They’re the winners of three straight games, including a double-digit win over the Dallas Cowboys, who were in the playoff hunt at the time of their matchup. Minnesota will be motivated to snuff out Detroit’s chances on its home turf.
If the Lions scrape past the Vikings, the odds aren’t favorable for their matchup with the Bears in the season finale. The PFSN FPM gives Detroit a 45.6% chance of beating Chicago, as opposed to a 52.4% chance of beating the Vikings.
The Lions have only a 24.4% chance of winning out and finishing with ten wins, and that’s the scenario they need to even have a chance at breaking into the NFL Playoff field, in a stacked NFC lineup.
The Packers, meanwhile, close out the year at home against the Baltimore Ravens and on the road against the Vikings. They have a 58.2% chance of beating the Ravens and a 54.4% chance of beating the Vikings.
With Jordan Love in concussion protocol, the Packers’ chances get a little more complicated, but backup QB Malik Willis has been very effective when called upon.
A lot hinges on either the Ravens or Vikings scoring an upset against Green Bay, but Detroit can’t focus on that. The Lions need to take it a week at a time and go 1-0 each week. One loss ends their road where they stand, and forces them to look ahead to 2026.
