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1st ODI, India vs New Zealand Match Prediction – Who Will Win Today?

The first ODI between India and New Zealand on January 11 marks a special day for Vadodara. The match will be the first-ever men’s international game at the BCA Stadium, also known as Kotambi Stadium.



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The venue has hosted women’s ODIs before, but this is its big moment in men’s cricket. A full house is expected as fans look forward to seeing top Indian stars in action.

Senior batters Virat Kohli and Rohit Sharma return to the Indian XI after a 22-day break. Both players were in fine touch during the Vijay Hazare Trophy and will look to carry that form here.

Another boost for India is the return of Shubman Gill as captain. Gill missed parts of the South Africa tour due to a neck injury but is now fully fit and ready to lead the side again.

New Zealand arrive with a young and fresh-looking squad led by Michael Bracewell. Eight players in their 15-member group have never played an ODI in India, making this tour a tough learning curve.

The visitors are also missing some big names. Kane Williamson is busy with SA20, while Mitchell Santner and Matt Henry are ruled out due to injuries. This leaves New Zealand short on experience, especially in Indian conditions.

The pitch in Vadodara is expected to be flat and good for batting. There should be even bounce throughout, though fast bowlers might get some help with the new ball in the first few overs.

India come into the series with strong numbers. They are on a seven-match ODI winning streak against New Zealand and have not lost a home ODI series to them since 2017.

Workload management has played a role in team selection. Jasprit Bumrah and Hardik Pandya have been rested for the ODI leg to stay fresh for upcoming tournaments.

India have also suffered a late setback. Rishabh Pant has been ruled out of the entire series after picking up an abdominal injury during net sessions just hours before the first ODI.

The toss could be a key factor. With heavy dew expected in the evening, the team winning the toss is likely to bowl first and chase under easier conditions.

Match Details

Match India vs New Zealand
Series New Zealand tour of India, 2026
Date & Time Sunday, 11 January 2026, 1:30 PM (IST)
Venue BCA Stadium, Kotambi, Vadodara
Broadcast & Live Stream Star Sports Network & JioHotstar app/website

BCA Stadium Pitch Report

The pitch at the BCA Stadium in Vadodara is expected to be a batting-friendly surface that will likely result in a high-scoring encounter. Fast bowlers may get some initial movement with the new ball, but the flat, true-bouncing pitch makes run-scoring easier as the match progresses. Spinners might get some assistance in the middle overs, but the expected dew in the evening could make chasing an advantage for the team winning the toss.

India vs New Zealand Head to Head Records ahead of 1st ODI

Matches Played 120
Won by India 62
Won by New Zealand 50
Ties 1
No Result 7

India vs New Zealand Recent Form (Last 5 Matches)

Team Last Five Matches
India W L W W L
New Zealand W W W W W

India vs New Zealand Predicted Playing XIs

India

Shubman Gill (Captain), Rohit Sharma, Virat Kohli, KL Rahul (Wicketkeeper), Shreyas Iyer (VC), Ravindra Jadeja, Nitish Kumar Reddy, Harshit Rana, Kuldeep Yadav, Mohammed Siraj, Arshdeep Singh

New Zealand

Devon Conway (Wicketkeeper), Will Young, Henry Nicholls, Daryl Mitchell, Glenn Phillips, Michael Bracewell (Captain), Josh Clarkson, Kristian Clarke, Kyle Jamieson, Aditya Ashok, Michael Rae

India vs New Zealand Probable Top Performers

  1. Virat Kohli: Kohli is in exceptional form, having scored a century and a fifty in recent domestic matches, following a strong series against South Africa. He is expected to be a major run-scorer at number three.
  2. Rohit Sharma: Returning to the top of the order, Sharma also notched up a domestic century recently and will be crucial in providing India with a solid start.
  3. Devon Conway: One of the most experienced players in an otherwise inexperienced New Zealand squad, Conway’s role at the top of the order will be vital if the Kiwis are to post a competitive total.
  4. Arshdeep Singh: Expected to share the new ball, the left-arm pacer is known for his wicket-taking ability and will be key in delivering early breakthroughs.
  5. Kuldeep Yadav: India’s lead wrist-spinner has a proven track record of striking in the middle overs, a factor that could prove decisive on the Vadodara pitch.

India vs New Zealand Toss Prediction

The presence of dew is anticipated in the evening, which will make gripping the ball difficult for bowlers and ease batting conditions while chasing in the second innings. As a result, the team that wins the toss is highly likely to opt to bowl first.

India vs New Zealand Match Prediction – Who Will Win?

India enter the first ODI as heavy favourites, with analysts giving them up to an 83% chance of victory, driven by dominant home form nine series wins in their last ten at home and a seven-match ODI winning streak against New Zealand. However, New Zealand’s four-series winning run and disciplined approach mean an upset remains possible

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