The NASCAR Cup Series playoff picture faces an unprecedented scenario as the regular season enters its final stretch with 11 different winners already claiming victories. With nine races remaining and several unpredictable track types ahead, the sport could witness its first season where winning doesn’t guarantee a playoff berth.
Despite this mathematical possibility, defending champion Joey Logano remains confident that the field won’t exceed the critical 16-winner threshold that would trigger a points-based tiebreaker system.
Logano Addresses the ‘Elephant in the Room’
Chase Briscoe’s victory at Pocono Raceway pushed the Cup Series to 11 different winners this season, intensifying speculation about a potential playoff crisis. Nine races remain in the regular season, creating ample opportunity for new winners to emerge and potentially force a historic scenario where 16 or more drivers claim victories.
The 2022 season holds the record with 19 different winners, demonstrating that such high winner counts are possible in the modern era. However, that season still fell short of creating the dreaded 17-winner scenario that would fundamentally alter playoff qualification.
NASCAR’s playoff system guarantees entry to race winners, but this promise comes with a crucial caveat: it only applies when 16 or fewer drivers win races during the regular season. If the winner count exceeds 16, the system shifts to a points-based qualification where the 16 drivers with the most accumulated points advance, regardless of victories. This means a race winner could miss the playoffs if they rank 17th or lower in points.
Among the current 11 winners, eight drivers have secured just a single victory, making them vulnerable if the winner count continues climbing. In a 17-winner scenario, the driver with the lowest point total would lose their playoff spot despite having a win.
Why the Defending Champion Isn’t Sweating
When asked before the Atlanta race whether he felt secure with his single win, Logano expressed confidence in his playoff position. “Yeah, I don’t see more than 16,” he said.
“I don’t think we’ve ever even the first year of the Next Gen car we got close to it. But I would say at this point I would be very surprised, let’s put it that way. Yeah, I mean yes, it’s possible. A lot of things are possible, but not likely.”
Despite Logano’s optimism, several factors suggest the possibility remains real. The season has produced limited repeat winners thus far, with only Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, and Denny Hamlin managing multiple victories. This parity increases the likelihood of new winners emerging in the remaining races.
The schedule ahead presents particular challenges for predicting outcomes. The final nine races include four road or street courses and two superspeedways, track types notorious for producing surprise winners and chaotic finishes. These venues often level the playing field between established stars and underdogs, creating opportunities for first-time winners to break through.
History Shows Late-Season Surprises Are Common
Recent seasons have demonstrated how dramatically the playoff picture can shift in the closing races. The regular season concludes with the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona International Speedway, a superspeedway race where unpredictability reigns supreme.
Last season provided two perfect examples of late-season chaos. Harrison Burton claimed his first career victory in the 2024 Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona, while Chase Briscoe secured a dramatic win at Darlington Raceway in the regular-season finale. Both victories eliminated established veterans from playoff contention and proved that no driver’s position is truly safe until the checkered flag waves on the final regular-season race.
These precedents suggest that similar upsets could unfold in 2025, potentially pushing the winner count toward or beyond the critical 16-driver threshold.
For Logano, who starts on pole position for the upcoming Atlanta race, securing a second victory would eliminate any uncertainty about his playoff status. While he projects confidence in his current position, the defending champion understands that in NASCAR’s current competitive landscape, assumptions can prove costly when championships are on the line.
