Jessica Pegula arrives in Washington after receiving a first-round bye. She’s the top seed and returns as a favorite, after a massive win in Bad Homburg, where she beat Iga Świątek in the final to clinch her ninth tour-level title. This was followed by her entry at Wimbledon, where she faced a disappointing first-round exit.
Pegula’s 2025 season has been the most impressive of her career. She claimed titles at the ATX Open (beating McCartney Kessler in Austin) and the Charleston Open (her first on clay). This was followed by a crown at Bad Homburg, defeating Swiatek in straight sets. She also reached the final in Miami but eventually lost to Aryna Sabalenka.
Leylah Fernandez, on the other hand, advanced to face Pegula after a confident 6–3, 6–3 victory over Australia’s Maya Joint . Their paths to this clash are well-earned, setting the stage for a compelling Round of 16 fixture.
Fernandez has had a quieter but solid season. She’s balanced two-round performances at Grand Slams, with a second-round exit at Wimbledon and quarterfinal runs in lead-up events. She’s already impressed with her straight-set win over Joint in the ongoing event, where she efficiently delivered five aces and converted break points. Her current year record sits at approximately 17–17.
Jessica Pegula vs Leylah Fernandez Head-to-Head
Pegula and Fernandez have met just twice on the professional circuit, with the American player holding a 2–0 advantage. Their most recent showdown was recorded in August 2024, at the Montreal quarterfinals of the Cincinnati Open. The match saw Pegula dominate in a three-hour and four-minute marathon with a 7–5, 6–7(1), 7–6(3) scoreline.
Match Details
- Fixture: Naomi Osaka vs Yulia Putintseva
- Date: Jul. 23, 2025
- Tournament: Mubadala Citi DC Open
- Round: Round of 16
- Venue: William H.G. FitzGerald Tennis Center, Washington, D.C
- Category: WTA 500
- Surface: Outdoor hard courts
- Live telecast: Tennis Channel, Fubo, ESPN+, Sky Sports
Jessica Pegula vs Leylah Fernandez Prediction
Pegula has been in electric form on hard courts in 2025, posting a 20–6 record (77 % win rate) on outdoor hard surfaces. She generates an average of 2.5 aces per match with a first-serve accuracy above 64 %. Her game is built on consistent baseline power, sharp angles off both wings, and superb defensive movement.
GAME SET AND MATCH FERNANDEZ!
Leylah Fernandez defeats Maya Joint 63 63 and is into the 2nd round in Washington!
Really liked Fernandez’s serving today, played a great solid match.
Setting up a huge showdown with #1 seed (1)Jessica Pegula in RD2. #MubadalaCitiOpen pic.twitter.com/ayiXefhTkB
— Jacob Pacheco (@JacobPacheco6) July 21, 2025
Fernandez, on the other hand, shows signs of excellence. Her aggressive counterpunching and willingness to come forward combine well with hard surface play. Yet, inconsistencies in her serve have limited her success to roughly a .500 win–loss record on fast courts this season.
Pegula’s serve has proven efficient; she lands over 64 % of her first serves, wins nearly 68 % of those points, and averages around two aces and two double faults per match. Her return game is acute, with strong break-point conversion (nearing 48 %) and excellent second-serve pressure.
Meanwhile, Fernandez counters with an unpredictable serving motion and quality returns but lacks the consistency to frequently unsettle top-tier servers. In their previous hard-court duels, Pegula’s serve efficiency and return pressure heavily shifted the stats in her favor.
Prediction: Pegula to win three sets
