US Futures Flat Ahead Of CPI

US equity futures are flat into today’s CPI print, which is expects to show a modest increase in YoY prints (full preview here) with bond yields reversing an earlier drop. As of 8:00am ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures were down 0.1%, with Mag7 names mixed in premarket trading: NVDA is lower as China asks firms to not use the H20 chips; Intel gains after its CEO met Trump last night with Trump posting positive comments after the meeting. European stocks erase early gains of as much as 0.4%. The dollar gains for the second day while US Treasuries trade flat, with the yield on 10-year notes at 4.29%. Commodities are higher led by Metals; gold is flat at $3350 as is bitcoin which trades just under $119K. Trump announced he would nominate labor stats critic EJ Antoni for head of BLS. US economic data slate focuses on the CPI print at 8:30am; we also get the July federal budget balance at 2pm.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Tesla +0.3%, Microsoft +0.1%, Amazon -0.05%, Meta +0.02%, Alphabet -0.1%, Nvidia -0.1%, Apple -0.5%). Nvidia dipped after China urged local firms to avoid the chipmaker’s H20 processors, particularly for government-related purposes. The move will complicate Nvidia’s attempts to recoup billions in lost China revenue, as well as the Trump administration’s push to turn those sales into a US government windfall. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Cannabis producers are up and on course to extend Monday’s rally, after President Donald Trump said he was considering reclassifying marijuana as a less dangerous drug. Tilray Brands (TLRY) +18%, Canopy Growth (CGC) +8%
• Archer Aviation (ACHR) shares drop 9% after the flying taxi company a 2Q adjusted Ebitda loss that’s wider that expected.
• AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) gains 12% after the satellite firm set out an ambitious plan to launch 45 to 60 satellites during 2025 and 2026. The firm also said it received two additional early-stage contracts for the US government.
• Cardinal Health (CAH) falls 5% after posting 4Q results and agreeing to buy Solaris Health from Lee Equity Partners and Solaris Health physician owners.
• Celanese (CE) drops 15% after the chemical manufacturer provided a disappointing 3Q profit forecast as management expects a softening demand across most key end-markets in the second half of the year.
• Hanesbrands (HBI) soars 41% after the Financial Times reported that Canada’s Gildan Activewear is nearing a deal to acquire the US underwear maker at an enterprise value approaching $5b.
• Intel (INTC) is up 2% after President Trump said his meeting with CEO Lip-Bu Tan “was a very interesting one.”
• Liquidia (LQDA) jumps 9% after the drugmaker reported revenue for the second quarter that topped the average analyst estimate.
• On Holding (ONON) gains 10% after the Swiss sportswear firm raised its FY sales outlook. The firm also reported estimate-beating results, seeing strong demand in all regions.
• PubMatic (PUBM) slides 29% after the ad-tech company forecast current-quarter revenue well below analyst estimates, with demand disrupted by a recent platform migration at a major demand-side platform client.
• Shift4 Payments Inc. (FOUR) climbs 4% after Jared Isaacman, its founder and executive chairman, bought $16.3 million of shares.

Today’s inflation report (full preview here) arrives after traders in recent weeks ramped up bets for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, anticipating that officials will act to bolster a labor market showing signs of softening. Absent a shockingly hot number, the Fed is expected to cut rates next month. Still, investors will remain cautious to the risk of persistent price pressures and the potential for a stagflationary backdrop. Traders have priced in more than two rate cuts by December, with about an 80% probability of a quarter-point reduction next month. The core consumer price index, regarded as a measure of underlying inflation because it strips out volatile food and energy costs, is expected to show a 0.3% increase for July, compared to 0.2% in the previous month.

“Positive equity market sentiment over the past few months has been predicated in part on the Fed cutting rates,” said Daniel Murray, chief executive officer of EFG Asset Management. “If the CPI release causes the date of the first rate cut to be pushed out, there is clearly a risk that sentiment takes a hit.”

While price action could be skewed to the downside in the event of a hot print, there is also upside risk that investors might be overlooking, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. traders.

“What worries us is a rotation that could happen in the ‘market bullish’ scenario of a benign CPI,” said Shawn Tuteja, who oversees ETF and custom baskets volatility trading at the bank. “One way to hedge against that is buying cyclical calls, but another way in our view given levels and overall asymmetry, could be to strike some semis and AI hedges.”

Elsewhere, some investors and analysts also warned that Trump’s 90-day extension of the US-China trade truce could prolong uncertainty and pose a more persistent risk to inflation, clouding the outlook for Fed policymakers. “While it preserves the flow of goods under prior terms with 30% rate, it keeps the threat of them very much in place,” said Ahmad Assiri, a research strategist at Pepperstone. “For the Fed, this reinforces the difficulty of striking the right balance between supporting growth and containing inflation.”

European stocks rose before the key US inflation data. The Stoxx 600 rises 0.2%, led by energy, industrial and mining shares. US equity futures are little changed.

Earlier in the session, Asian equities advanced as global trade worries eased after Trump’s China tariff move. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.8%, led by Japanese shares which hit a record high after trading resumed following Monday’s holiday. Japanese and Korean chip stocks were given a boost by Trump’s signal he would be open to allowing Nvidia to sell a scaled-back version of its Blackwell AI chip to China.

In rates, treasuries are little changed ahead of July CPI data at 8:30am New York time, with UK and German yields higher after data including a smaller-than-expected drop in UK payrolls. US yields remain within 1bp of Monday’s closing levels with 10-year near 4.29%; UK and German 10-year counterparts are higher by 4bp and 1.4bp after a smaller-than-expected drop in payrolls prompted traders to trim bets on interest-rate cuts by the Bank of England this year.

In FX, the pound gains 0.3%, topping the G-10 leader board with the Swiss franc. The Aussie dollar underperforms after the RBA cut rates and trimmed its 2025 growth outlook.

UK 10-year yields rise 3 bps to 4.59%. The pound gains 0.3%, topping the G-10 leader board with the Swiss franc. The Aussie dollar underperforms after the RBA cut rates and trimmed its 2025 growth outlook. The Stoxx 600 rises 0.2%, led by energy, industrial and mining shares. US equity futures are little changed. Nvidia slips 0.3% premarket after

In commodities, WTI crude is steady near $64, and spot gold climbs $7 to $3,349/oz.

Looking at today’s calendar, US economic data slate includes the CPI print at 830a, and July federal budget balance at 2pm. Fed speaker slate includes Barkin (10am) and Schmid (10:30am). Lastly, notable earnings include CoreWeave and Circle Internet Group.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini little changed
• Nasdaq 100 mini unchanged
• Russell 2000 mini +0.2%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.2%
• DAX -0.2%
• CAC 40 +0.3%
• 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.28%
• VIX little changed at 16.26
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1207.61
• euro little changed at $1.161
• WTI crude +0.1% at $64.03/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Beijing has urged local companies to avoid using Nvidia Corp.’s H20 processors, particularly for government-related purposes, complicating the chipmaker’s attempts to recoup billions in lost China revenue after the Trump administration reversed an effective US ban on such sales. Beijing’s worried about location-tracking and remote shutdown capabilities, which Nvidia has previously denied. BBG
• Trump posted that he met with Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan along with Commerce Secretary Lutnick and Treasury Secretary Bessent, while he stated “The meeting was a very interesting one. His success and rise is an amazing story. Mr. Tan and my Cabinet members are going to spend time together, and bring suggestions to me during the next week.”
• Elon Musk accused Apple of favoring OpenAI in its app store and said xAI will take legal action. BBG
• US imports from China slowed sharply ahead of the Aug. 11 tariff deadline. Although the new 90-day delay agreement offers temporary relief, the drop in shipments signals potential risks to American growth and corporate margins. BBG
• Xi Jinping called for coordinated efforts against unilateralism and protectionism — language usually used by China to criticize US trade policy — in a phone conversation with Brazil’s President Lula da Silva. BBG
• Trump said that he plans to nominate E.J. Antoni, the chief economist at the Heritage Foundation, to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Antoni, a longtime critic of the agency’s handling of jobs data, had the support of conservatives like former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon. The position requires Senate confirmation. WSJ
• Britain’s jobs market has weakened again, official data showed, with payrolls falling for a sixth month and vacancies dropping further, but wage growth stayed strong, underscoring why the Bank of England is so cautious about cutting interest rates (payrolled employees -8K in Jul, wages elevated at +5%). RTRS
• Australia’s central bank lowered rates by 25bp overnight (as expected), and signaled further easing going forward (“updated staff forecasts for the August meeting suggest that underlying inflation will continue to moderate to around the midpoint of the 2–3 per cent range, with the cash rate assumed to follow a gradual easing path”). RBA
• Intel’s stock rose premarket (INTC 3% pre mkt) after CEO Lip-Bu Tan appeared to reset his strained relationship with Trump during a White House meeting. The president called Tan’s success “amazing” and said discussions will continue. BBG

Trade/Tariffs

• China issued a statement on US economic and trade ties in which it stated that China will suspend tariffs for 90 days and will retain an additional 10% tariff rate, while it will adopt and maintain all necessary measures to suspend or remove non-tariff measures taken against the US.
• China updated its export control lists and noted firms can apply to trade with entities under the list and it halted measures on 12 US entities on the export list, while it said it will grant licences if exporters meet requirements and it is suspending adding some US firms to the export control list for 90 days.
• China urges firms not to use NVIDIA (NVDA) H20 chips in new guidance, according to Bloomberg
• China’s Commerce Ministry has launched an anti-dumping investigation into Canadian pea starch and announced preliminary investigation results on Canadian canola seed. The ministry also released preliminary findings on imports of halogenated butyl rubber from Canada, Japan, and India. Meanwhile, the Chinese Foreign Ministry urged the US to take practical steps to stabilise global chip supply chains.
• South Africa’s Trade Minister stated the country stands ready to utilise its trade remedy measures to safeguard and protect domestic industry.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks shrugged off the weak lead from Wall St and traded mostly higher with outperformance in Japan on return from the extended weekend and following a deluge of earnings, while participants also reflected on the recent US-China trade truce extension. ASX 200 eked slight gains and extended on record highs with only mild tailwinds seen after the RBA delivered a widely expected 25bps rate cut. Nikkei 225 surged on return from the long weekend and followed suit to the record-setting performance in the TOPIX with the index underpinned following a slew of earnings releases and recent currency weakness. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp kept afloat following the confirmation of a 90-day extension to the US-China tariff truce with the new deadline set for November 9th.

Top Asian News

• Chinese President Xi held talks with Brazilian President Lula, with the call said to have lasted about an hour and both presidents highlighted willingness to identify new business opportunities between the two economies.
• US President Trump and South Korean President Lee are to hold a summit on August 25th where they will discuss economic cooperation and economic security partnership, as well as the evolving strategic alliance between the two countries.
• RBA cut the Cash Rate by 25bps to 3.60%, as expected with the decision unanimous, while it reiterated that inflation has continued to moderate and the outlook remains uncertain as well as noted that maintaining price stability and full employment is the priority. RBA stated that underlying inflation will continue to moderate to around the midpoint of the 2–3% range, with the cash rate assumed to follow a gradual easing path, and it noted that monetary policy is well placed to respond decisively to international developments if they have material implications for activity and inflation in Australia. Furthermore, it stated the cut was due to underlying inflation continuing to decline back towards the midpoint of the 2–3% range and labour market conditions easing slightly.
• RBA Governor Bullock stated there had been no discussions of a larger rate cut, while noting that current forecasts imply the Cash Rate may need to be lower to ensure price stability, with the Board to take decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis and not ruling out back-to-back rate cuts. She added that the recovery in house prices has been gradual so far, though forecasts are dependent on further rate cuts, and without these, targets would likely be missed. Governor Bullock also said she places little emphasis on the neutral rate, while noting that if the Fed were to lower rates too quickly, it would have global implications. Furthermore, she highlighted that policy remains forward-looking, with the assumption that rates can continue to be lowered.
• Italy PM Meloni seeks to shrink Chinese holdings at key Italian companies, according to Bloomberg.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.3%) began the session firmer, and continue to hold this bias but in rangebound trade into US CPI. European sectors traded mostly in the green (bar Tech) for the entire morning, given the slightly upbeat tone ahead of CPI. Energy trades at the top of the pile with Basic resources nipping at its heels for most of the morning – the latter lifted by strength in underlying iron ore prices.

Top European News

• German investor confidence sinks as costs of trade deal hit home
• UK loses fewer jobs than expected, clouding path to rate-cut

FX

• USD is broadly flat vs. peers in the run-up to today’s eagerly anticipated US inflation report. Expectations are for core M/M inflation to rise to 0.3% from 0.2% with the Y/Y rate seen rising to 3.0% from 2.9%. On the Fed, Bloomberg reports that Fed Governor Bowman, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson, and Dallas Fed President Logan are now also in the running for the Chair position. Elsewhere, on the trade front, US President Trump has signed an Executive Order that will extend the tariff suspension on China for another 90 days, as expected. DXY is contained within Monday’s 98.03-99.67 range.
• EUR is steady vs. the USD as the narrative surrounding the Eurozone remains the same. That narrative being that the ECB is holding policy steady with inflation under control but mindful of any potential growth headwinds in Q3 as the impact of the US tariffs on the Bloc filters through into the data. Today’s ZEW deteriorated from the priors and also missed expectations, although it prompted no move in the EUR. EUR/USD has made its way back onto a 1.16 handle, but still some way off Monday’s best at 1.1675.
• JPY is fractionally weaker vs. the USD as Japanese participants returned to the market and sent the Nikkei 225 to a record high. Incremental macro drivers for Japan are lacking. USD/JPY has eclipsed Monday’s best at 148.25 with a current session high at 148.44.
• Cable is higher in the wake of the latest UK jobs report, which failed to show a marked deterioration in the labour market that some had been positioned for. The ILO unemployment rate held steady at 4.7%, employment change showed a larger-than-expected pick up to 238k from 134k, the contraction in HRMC payrolls change slowed to -8k from -26k and wage growth came in a touch softer than forecast on a headline basis. Overall, the takeaway is that the UK labour market is softening, but the rate of change appears to be slowing. Cable has advanced further on a 1.34 handle but is still shy of Monday’s 1.3477 peak.
• AUD is the marginal laggard across the majors in the wake of the latest RBA policy announcement, which saw the central bank pull the trigger on a widely expected 25bps rate cut. The decision to do so was unanimous, and the accompanying policy statement reiterated language that inflation has continued to moderate and the outlook remains uncertain. The central bank also simultaneously released its Quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy which showed a downgrade to the estimate of Australia’s long-run productivity growth to 0.7% from 1.0% and with trend GDP growth now seen around 2.0%, down from 2.25%. AUD/USD has slipped onto a 0.64 handle with a session low at 0.6494.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1418 vs exp. 7.1901 (Prev. 7.1405)

Fixed Income

• USTs trade with a very mild negative bias, ultimately trading just under the unchanged mark as traders position themselves ahead of today’s US CPI. Price action today has been incredibly boring – rangebound in a tight 111-23 to 111-27+ range. The low for today has breached the trough from Monday (111-24+). Delving into the day’s key risk event, all focus on the US inflation data. US July CPI is expected to rise by 0.2% M/M at the headline level (prev. +0.3%), with the annual rate seen rising to 2.8% Y/Y from 2.7%.
• Bunds trade with a slight negative bias, but ultimately in rangebound trade ahead of US CPI. Currently trading in a 129.49-70 range, with the trough for the day around about 8 ticks below the low from Monday. As was the case in the prior session, the docket from an EZ-perspective has been exceptionally thin and is unlikely to pick up throughout the week. There was German ZEW data earlier, which showed a dip in sentiment in August – likely with participants disappointed by the EU-US trade deal.
• Gilts are underperforming today and lower by around 35 ticks, to trade towards the bottom end of a 91.86 to 92.12 range. This comes after the region’s job report, which overall highlighted a cooling labour market but nothing quite alarming enough for the BoE to accelerate the cutting cycle – as such the report has been considered as more conducive to the Bank’s “gradual” monpol approach. Gilt 2030 auction passed without issue, garnering a fairly strong b/c; not entirely surprising given the short-dated maturity of the auction.
• UK sells GBP 4.75bln 4.375% 2030 Gilt: b/c 3.15x (prev. 3.12x), average yield 4.022% (prev. 4.078%) & tail 0.1bps (prev. 0.2bps)

Commodities

• Crude futures are rangebound amid light energy-specific newsflow and as participants await US CPI and geopolitical updates. Earlier today, Russian security services reported that an attack on a senior Defence Ministry official was foiled on the outskirts of Moscow, according to Al Arabiya. This did not influence prices at the time, with a wider focus likely on the Trump-Putin meeting this Friday. WTI currently resides in a 64.12-65.08/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 66.70-67.58/bbl range.
• Spot gold ekes out mild gains after it nursed some losses overnight after yesterday’s retreat, and with an indecisive reaction to President Trump’s announcement that the precious metal will not be tariffed. Spot gold resides in a USD 3,340.69-3,357.94/oz range, compared to Monday’s USD 3,340.09-3,404.19/oz range.
• Copper futures edged higher amid the mostly positive risk appetite in Asia and the 90-day US-China tariff truce extension, which was as expected. 3M LME copper prices reside in a USD 9,733.22-9,789.00/t range.
• Turkey’s Minister of Energy and Natural Resources stated that all options are being studied to increase gas exports to Syria from 3.4 million to 6 million cubic meters per day, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Chile’s Codelco copper production rose 17.3% Y/Y in June to 120.2k tons, while Escondida copper production fell 33% Y/Y in June to 76.4k tons and Collahuasi copper production fell 29.1% Y/Y in June to 34.3k tons.

Geopolitics

• Ukrainian President Zelensky posts “We see that the Russian army is not preparing to end the war. On the contrary, they are making movements that indicate preparations for new offensive operations.”.
• Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov said he hopes the upcoming meeting between Russian President Putin and US President Trump will give momentum to normalisation of Russia-US relations, according to TASS.
• Russian security services reported that an attack on a senior Defence Ministry official was foiled on the outskirts of Moscow, according to Al Arabiya.

US Event Calendar

• 6:00 am: Jul NFIB Small Business Optimism, est. 98.85, prior 98.6
• 8:30 am: Jul CPI MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%
• 8:30 am: Jul CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
• 8:30 am: Jul CPI YoY, est. 2.8%, prior 2.7%
• 8:30 am: Jul CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 3%, prior 2.9%
• 8:30 am: Jul CPI Index NSA, est. 323.29, prior 322.56
• 8:30 am: Jul CPI Core Index SA, est. 328.56, prior 327.6
• 2:00 pm: Jul Federal Budget Balance, est. -239.15b, prior 27.01b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets have been relatively subdued over the last 24 hours, as investors await today’s US CPI print and the much anticipated Trump-Putin summit on Friday. One obstacle for the week has passed as Trump last night extended the US-China trade truce for another 90 days. The previous deadline was due to expire today. So with investors very much in wait-and-see mode, major asset classes only saw modest moves yesterday, with the S&P 500 (-0.25%) closing slightly lower, whilst 10yr Treasury yields (+0.3bps) moved very little all day. Asian markets have picked up a bit of positive momentum overnight though.

Of course, the relative calm could all change today with the US CPI print for July, where investors are keenly focused on how tariffs are filtering into consumer prices. Indeed, our US economists think that the core CPI print will be at +0.32%, which would be the fastest in six months, and clearly raise concerns about inflation that’s still lingering above the Fed’s target. So if realised, that would push the year-on-year core CPI rate up to +3.0%, and it would be very close to rounding up to +3.1%. Then for headline inflation, they’re looking for a +0.24% monthly print, that would push the year-on-year number up to +2.8%. For more details, see our economists’ full preview and how to sign up to their webinar here.

This report will be an important one for the Fed, in part because of the unexpectedly weak jobs report earlier this month. That contained sizeable downward revisions and meant that markets have dialled up their expectations for rate cuts as soon as the next meeting in September, with futures currently giving that an 88% chance. So our economists note in their preview that a downside surprise in today’s CPI print would strengthen rate cut expectations, whereas an in-line or stronger print would require further data to provide clarity on that. They also put out a note yesterday on the implications of Stephen Miran’s appointment to the Fed’s Board, and run through what it would take to get a 25bp or 50bp cut at the next meeting (link here). Their central case remains that there will be no cuts until December but obviously the risks are building that it is earlier.

Sticking to the Fed, Bloomberg reported yesterday that two vice chairs, Michelle Bowman and Philip Jefferson, as well as Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, were under consideration for the Fed Chair position next year. Compared to other recent stories on the topic, the report suggested that a wider range of candidates were in play and that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will interview additional candidates in the coming weeks before presenting a recommended short-list to Trump.

Overnight Mr Trump has appointed EJ Antoni to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics after firing the former head on the day of the last payroll report (August 1st). Antoni was the chief economist at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative policy think tank that authored the Project 2025 report that informed much of Trump 2.0 administration’s thinking.

The other important news surrounded Ukraine yesterday, and it was confirmed that German Chancellor Merz will convene Trump and President Zelensky and other European leaders for an emergency call tomorrow afternoon before Trump’s talks with Putin. According to Politico, the call will discuss different options against Russia, questions about Ukrainian territories seized by Moscow, security guarantees for Kyiv and the sequencing of potential peace talks. However, investor expectations for a breakthrough out of Friday’s meeting between Trump and Putin faded yesterday, with Trump himself downplaying expectations from what he called a “feel-out” meeting. Several European bourses lost ground, including the STOXX 600 (-0.06%), the DAX (-0.34%) and the CAC 40 (-0.57%). Oil prices fluctuated ahead of the talks, with Brent crude eventually closing up +0.18%.

US equities also saw pretty muted moves on Monday, even after news broke over the weekend that Nvidia (-0.35%) and AMD (-0.28%) had agreed to pay 15% of their revenues on Chinese AI chip sales to the US government in a deal to secure export licenses, even if some say the move is illegal. Trump confirmed the deal, saying he could also allow Nvidia to export a scaled-back version of its most advanced Blackwell chip to China. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell -0.13%, with its decline mitigated by Intel (+3.51%) whose CEO Lip-Bu Tan met with Trump yesterday, despite Trump calling for his resignation last week. The Mag-7 (-0.09%) saw a modest outperformance thanks to a +2.85% advance by Tesla.

One other notable story was Trump’s extension last night of the tariff truce between the US and China, which was due to expire today, for another 90 days. As a reminder, after an escalatory spiral post-Liberation Day that saw US tariffs on China go as high as 145%, additional US tariffs on China have been at 30% since the truce agreed in mid-May. China has also extended their own suspension of tariffs for 90 days, with November 10th being the new deadline for both sides.

Meanwhile in fixed income, US Treasuries were little changed ahead of the CPI release today, with the 2yr yield up +0.5bps and the 10yr up +0.3bps to 4.29%. Our rates strategists yesterday recommended going short 10yr Treasuries with a 4.60% yield target, seeing upside for term premia trades. With the US seeing a negative supply shock on tariffs and immigration but with demand growth indicators still close to potential, they see the economic case for policy rates going deeply below neutral as relatively weak, while aggressive rate cuts due to political pressure could lead long-end yields to rise. See their full note here for more.

Continental European yields edged higher in several countries yesterday, including 10yr bunds (+0.8bps), OATs (+0.7bps) and BTPs (+0.9bps). However, 10yr gilts (-3.6bps) outperformed, as investors priced in more rate cuts from the Bank of England over the coming months in response to a weak KPMG-REC corporate payroll survey.

Overnight in Asia, markets are mostly continuing their recent run, buoyed by the 90-day tariff pause between the US and China. The CSI (+0.60%) and Shanghai Composite (+0.51%), are higher but with the Hang Seng and KOSPI broadly flat. The Nikkei (+2.76%) is very strong after yesterday’s holiday. In Australia, the RBA decreased its cash rate target by 25bps to 3.60% as universally expected, with the S&P/ASX200 increasing after the decision (+0.33%). Equity futures are trading a touch higher this morning, with the S&P 500 up +0.09% and the Nasdaq up +0.10%.

To the day ahead now, in addition to the US July CPI report we’ll also get data on NFIB small business optimism, federal budget balance, UK June average weekly earnings, unemployment rate, July jobless claims change, Germany’s August Zew survey and June’s current account balance, the Eurozone’s August Zew survey, and Canada’s June building permits. Central bank speakers include Fed’s Barkin. Lastly, notable earnings include CoreWeave and Circle Internet Group.