Yves here. Given the imminent Trump-Putin summit, Russia is very much in the focus, as is the new US provocation in its Caucasus back yard via Trump’s loudly-announced plan for a 99 year lease on the Zangezur Corridor, which borders Iran. The article below very usefully describes how no deal whatsoever has been done. All that has been inked is a non-binding memorandum of understanding. The obnoxious attempt to rebrand the Zangezur Corridor as the Trump Special, erm, the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, is not past the napkin doodle stage either. The article points out the agreement is vague, “adding little to what the two [Armenia’s Pashinyan and Azerbaijan’s Aliyev] had already stated many times previously,” and does not solve the elephant in the room, the Azerbaijan insistence that Armenia take constitutional steps to cede Nagorno Karabakh.
Colonel Macgregor offered a similarly dim view in an aside on a fresh interview with Daniel Davis at Deep Dive. Starting at 41:20:
Well, the Azeri-Armenian deal, quote unquote, is not meaningful. First of all, the parliaments of those respective countries have to approve of the so-called deal that was signed in Washington with Trump, Aliyev and Pashinyan. That’s not going to be easy. In fact, I’m not sure it will happen at all. Secondly, that deal is now being denounced of course by the Iranians who see this as another attempt to encircle Iran, effectively as an act of war. Finally, the Russians, who still have troops on the ground in Armenia by the way, have viewed this with considerable, sort of curiosity, since they were the ones who were initially asked to go into the corridor, this is before they renamed the Zangezur Corridor the Trump Corridor of Prosperity Influence and Perpetual Peace or whatever the hell it is.
So I would dismiss out of hand that whole nonsensical thing. I don’t think it adds any staying power.
Conor has provided an in-depth review of other impediments to this deal in The Trump Route in the Southern Caucasus: Setting Events in Motion, such as a welter of other agreements. If you haven’t yet had time to read his piece, I urge you to now.
But keep in mind that the US bar for success is low. All it needs to do to score a win is to make trouble for Russia and Iran and sow doubt about existing agreements.
By Eurasianet, an independent news organization that covers news from and about the South Caucasus and Central Asia, providing on-the-ground reporting and critical perspectives on the most important developments in the region. Cross posted from OilPrice
- The August 8 Joint Declaration between Armenia and Azerbaijan, facilitated by the US, is a non-binding memorandum of understanding for continued peace talks, not a final peace treaty.
- A key element of the deal involves a proposed American-managed transit corridor (TRIPP) between Azerbaijan and its Nakhchivan exclave, which faces significant operational uncertainties and no clear timeline.
- The agreement is expected to intensify geopolitical tensions, as both Russia and Iran view increased US involvement in the South Caucasus as a direct threat to their regional influence and have vowed to resist it.
Buckle up. The geopolitical struggle among the United States, Russia and Iran is poised to intensify before any durable peace comes to the Caucasus.
The provisional peace deal signed August 8 at the White House by US President Donald Trump, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev is a potential diplomatic thunderbolt that transforms the Caucasus, giving the United States the upper hand in what traditionally has been Russia’s backyard and Iran’s playground. But it is important to understand that the August 8 Joint Declaration is merely the end of the beginning: there is a long way to go before the aspirations outlined in the document are fulfilled.
Though the three signatories to the Joint Declaration touted it as transformative, marking the dawn of an era of “eternal peace,” the document’s provisions are vague and non-binding. In effect, it is a memorandum of understanding, not a contract.
Pashinyan and Aliyev “initialed” what was described as a “peace agreement.” In fact, what they signed was a pledge to keep on talking about a lasting settlement, adding little to what the two had already stated many times previously.
“We acknowledged the need to continue further actions to achieve the signing and ultimate ratification of the [Peace] Agreement, and emphasized the importance of maintaining and strengthening peace between our two countries,” the Joint Declaration reads.
It is worth noting that the Joint Declaration does not mention the main obstacle believed to be preventing the signing of a peace treaty — Azerbaijan’s demand that Armenia amend its constitution to unequivocally recognize Baku’s sovereignty over the Nagorno Karabakh territory, reconquered by Azerbaijani forces in 2023.
The Joint Declaration does appear to potentially overcome another major obstacle — Azerbaijan’s insistence on a corridor between its mainland and its Nakhchivan exclave providing unhindered access for Azerbaijani citizens. The solution is American management of the corridor.
But the American-managed route cannot yet be considered a sure thing. The Joint Declaration acknowledges as much, stating that US and Armenian officials merely express their “determination to pursue efforts in good faith to achieve this goal in the most expeditious manner.” Key operational details remain up in the air, and there is no timeline for negotiations.
“This [August 8] summit was a step forward in the peace process, but the agreements reached leave a lot of questions unanswered. Much of what was agreed at the White House was a repackaging of things that Armenia and Azerbaijan had already agreed in principle,” Joshua Kucera, a senior analyst for Crisis Group, said in a statement.
“Some of Baku’s and Yerevan’s motivation was surely the desire to get on Trump’s good side by giving him a role,” Kucera added.
The transit corridor has been dubbed the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, or TRIPP. Given his predilection for self-aggrandizement, putting the president’s name on the corridor may well increase the odds that Washington remains closely engaged, keeping pressure up on Armenia and Azerbaijan to keep the process moving forward.
For Trump, his personal brand is now at stake. He has got a lot of skin in this game.
But there are plenty of other forces at work that are intent on scuttling the deal. Russia and Iran, for one, are unlikely to stand idly by as the United States seeks to usurp their regional influence.
If the ideas outlined in the Joint Declaration come into being, “in essence, an American semi-state military base [will be] created in Armenia,” explained Russian political scientist Sergei Markov in a Telegram post. “This is a strong blow to Russia’s interests [and] this is a strong blow to Iran’s interests because all this is right next to Iran’s northern border.”
“This changes the entire strategic situation throughout the entire South Caucasus,” Markov added.
Influential Iranian leaders have already indicated that Tehran will use all means at the government’s disposal to prevent the plan from becoming reality. Ali Akbar Velayati, a former long-time Iranian foreign minister and now a policy advisor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, characterized the corridor as a “political plot” posing a mortal threat to Iranian security and economic interests, the Tasnim news agency reported.
“NATO wants to lie between Iran and Russia like a viper, but Iran will not permit it,” the Iranian news agency quoted Velayati as saying. He threatened that a US-managed corridor would “turn into a graveyard of the mercenaries of Donald Trump, not a route owned by the US president.”
The Kremlin, meanwhile, is clearly not pleased with developments, but has been more circumspect in revealing how Russia will respond.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova hinted that heavier US involvement will cause heightened volatility in the Caucasus. “The involvement of extra-regional players should work to strengthen the peace agenda and not create additional difficulties and dividing lines,” Zakharova stated. “We would like to avoid the sad experience of Western assistance in resolving conflicts in the Middle East.”
Beyond probable mischief-making by Moscow and Tehran, final approval by Armenia is a question mark. Pashinyan is likely to face determined domestic opposition to the plan. Polling data indicates that only about one-third of Armenians believe the country is headed in the right direction.
“For Armenia, [the peace deal] offers a path toward economic diversification and greater strategic autonomy, but its success hinges on navigating domestic polarization and countering external interference,” said Nima Khorrami, an associate research fellow at the OSCEAcademy in Bishkek.
Ultimately, there are lots of hurdles on which TRIPP could stumble.
“If Trump is looking for an easy peacemaking win, he’s not there yet in the South Caucasus,” Kucera said. “A lot of hard work remains to be done to achieve a real, sustainable peace.”
