Mortgage rates fall to a 10-month low. Here’s when they could drop again.

While a cut to the federal funds rate is more than a month away (if it even happens), homebuyers and owners looking to refinance woke up to welcome news Thursday when mortgage interest rates dropped to their lowest point since October 2024. The average 30-year mortgage loan rate is now 6.58%, according to FreddieMac data. That marked a five basis point decline week-over-week and is now the lowest mortgage rates have been since they were at the 6.54% mark the week of October 24, 2024. That rate was just weeks after the Federal Reserve issued a larger-than-expected 50 basis-point cut to its benchmark interest rate.

Still, 6.58% is far from what borrowers were accustomed to at the start of the decade, when rates here sat around 3% or lower for qualified borrowers. Even a decline below 6% would be welcome now, especially for homebuyers stuck on the sidelines and homeowners saddled with current rates above 7%. But, when could rates fall again? While predicting the future rate movement tied to any product is inherently difficult to do with precision, there are some dates on the calendar to pay attention to. Below, we’ll detail three upcoming ones in which mortgage rates could drop again.

Start by seeing how low of a mortgage rate you’d currently qualify for here.

3 dates in which mortgage rates could drop again

Mortgage rates aren’t expected to fall dramatically any time soon, but even a small drop could be the difference between buying or refinancing. So it behooves both buyers and owners to monitor the following three calendar dates for potential opportunities to take action:

Friday, September 5, 2025

The unemployment rate is a key indicator of an economy’s overall health. A decline here, then, could indicate improving conditions after it rose to 4.2% from June to July. But an uptick could be further motivation for the Federal Reserve to take action and cut rates to improve conditions. And while the federal funds rate is just one factor that drives mortgage rates (the 10-year Treasury yield is another), it does have a major impact. So watch what happens in the employment sector closely here, as it could increase chances of a Fed rate cut and, thus, reduce mortgage purchase and refinance rates from lenders in advance of a formal cut.

Compare your current mortgage options here and learn more.

Thursday, September 11, 2025

This is when the next inflation report is scheduled to be released and it’s a major one to watch. Inflation ticked up in May and June and remained flat in July at a rate of 2.7%. Movement here could be the final motivation the central bank needs to finally reduce rates after keeping them on pause since last December. Or it could motivate the Fed to maintain its current “wait and see” approach. Either way, the inflation numbers released on this day will impact the overall borrowing climate and mortgage rates, in particular. 

Wednesday, September 17, 2025

All eyes turn to the Federal Reserve on September 17, which will mark the second and final day of the Fed’s next meeting. Will the Fed finally cut rates? And, if so, by how much? Or will they continue to pause any action? What will comments made by Fed chairman Jerome Powell indicate at the conclusion of the meeting? Many questions will be asked and, hopefully, answered on this day. And the mortgage rate climate could get shaken up all over again. For context, mortgage rates plunged to a two-year low right before the Fed wrapped its September 2024 meeting (when they cut rates by half a percentage point). Could that happen again? Buyers and owners will be eager to find out.

The bottom line

Mortgage rates could fall on one or more of the above dates or they could change on the days after these, as the market absorbs new data points and Fed announcements. So, if you’re looking to secure a low rate, be prepared to act in the weeks ahead. Your best chance to secure the lowest rate in years could soon be approaching.