Bitcoin (BTC) makes history as the third week of July begins above $120,000 per coin.
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BTC price strength shows no signs of reversing as $123,000 appears for the first time after the weekly close.
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July gains remain standard in percentage terms despite the giant US dollar figures.
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US CPI week dawns with a cloud hanging over the fate of Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
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US deficit woes are driving Bitcoin relentlessly higher, analysis says — and the whole situation is anything but “normal.”
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Bitcoin dominance is showing weakness and altcoins are more than happy to pick up the slack.
Bitcoin traders eye next BTC price top levels
Celebrations are everywhere this week as BTC/USD passes $120,000 for the first time in a giant surge higher.
All-time highs now sit at $122,600, with the weekly candle locking in $10,000 of upside, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms.
After two months of consolidation, price discovery came thick and fast, but commentators are already wondering how much fuel is left in Bitcoin’s tank.
“It’s taken 44 months for this massive Cup & Handle pattern to develop on the $BTC chart, and price is now just 2% away from the target I identified in May 2024 when the cup first formed,” Keith Alan, cofounder of trading resource Material Indicators, wrote in part of a post on X.
Alan acknowledged that “a lot has changed” since then, and Bitcoin is in a completely different place as a macro asset.
“Hence, I believe price will go higher before we reach the cycle top,” he added.
Among traders, upside targets likewise appear limited, with popular pundit BitQuant sticking to his $145,000 goal.
Coming Soon https://t.co/WsVESAqNVK
— BitQuant (@BitQua) July 4, 2025
“$BTC is going to hit $135,000 in Q3,” fellow trader Cas Abbe continued.
“A strong weekly close above $107.7K was needed and it happened last week. After that, $BTC pumped $10,000 in just a week and still showing no signs of exhaustion. I think a rally to $120K, followed by some consolidation and then a pump to $135,000 is highly likely.”
A July like any other?
While impressive in US dollar terms, percentage gains for BTC/USD add some much-needed context to the rally.
Bitcoin is up by just under 14% in July so far, making its performance in fact fairly typical.
BULLISH: Bitcoin is forecast to hit a new all-time high in July, as historical data shows strong risk-asset returns this month. $BTC has never lost over 10% in July and the S&P 500 posting gains 10 years in a row. pic.twitter.com/PQZHyknOHy
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) July 1, 2025
Data from CoinGlass shows that July has spawned gains of more than 20% in the past decade, while Q3 performance has been even more varied.
August, on the other hand, frequently ends up as a “red” month.
The bulk of price performance tends to occur sooner rather than later in the monthly candle. The phenomenon is also true of other assets beyond crypto — including US stocks.
“July tends to be a strong month, but most of those gains happen the first half of the month,” Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, wrote about the S&P 500 on X this weekend.
“Not end of world stuff here, but some consolidation at some point the next two weeks would be perfectly normal.”
In a separate post, Detrick noted record gains for the S&P in May and June this year while drawing comparisons to 1987, the year of the Black Monday crash in October.
The 11.4% gain for the S&P 500 this yr in May/June is the largest gain ever during these historically weak months
>5% (and higher) in both months only 9 times
Incredibly, it has happened the past 3 yrs
Yes, 1987 is here, but all in all, this isn’t a reason to turn bearish pic.twitter.com/zXxNnJEvlP
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) July 13, 2025
CPI week comes as Fed’s Powell faces calls to resign
A key week for US inflation data sees the June print of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) under the microscope.
Initial jobless claims and June import prices add to the mix, with speaking appearances from senior Federal Reserve officials throughout the week.
UPDATE: The US CPI and core CPI data will be released on Tuesday.
What’s your prediction? pic.twitter.com/gAlFX3Xk8B
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) July 14, 2025
Two weeks out from the Fed’s next meeting on interest rates, inflation data is gaining weight for markets. Sentiment still believes that rates will not come down before September, as confirmed by CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
At the same time, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who has maintained a hawkish economic stance, is under increasing pressure to do so by US President Donald Trump.
“I call him ‘Too Late;’ he’s always too late,” Trump told reporters on July 13, referring to the pace at which the Fed cuts rates, which he considers should be the lowest worldwide.
“You’re telling me he’s going to quit; I hope he quits, but he should quit, because he’s been very bad for the country,” Trump continued.
As Cointelegraph reported, some Fed sources have revealed openness to lowering rates this month, including Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, who will take to the stage again on July 15.
US debt sparks Bitcoin ”crisis mode”
Behind the inflation debate, however, a bigger US macro threat is taking shape — one which analysis directly links to Bitcoin’s outperformance versus other assets this month.
The US deficit is ballooning, with May representing the third-highest monthly figure ever at $316 billion.
For all the buzz over trade tariffs and reining in expenses, the US continues to get more in debt — as shown by its record national debt figure.
Analyzing the situation, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter did not mince its words.
“This is not a ‘normal.’ We have reached a point where Bitcoin is moving in a literal STRAIGHT-LINE higher,” it summarized in an X thread on July 14.
“Rates are rising, the USD is down -11% in 6 months, and crypto is up +$1 TRILLION in 3 months. What’s happening? Bitcoin has entered ‘crisis mode.’”
Kobeissi highlighted two key inflection points for Bitcoin and US dollar weakness: the April reciprocal tariffs delay and Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” passing this month.
“And, it seemed that Bitcoin was rallying on trade deal hopes,” it continued.
“But, whether trade deals were announced or not, the market was seeing the same outcome: Yields are rising, Bitcoin is rising, the USD is falling, and gold is rising. This simply is not a ‘normal’ situation.”
Global macro tailwinds have long been tipped to benefit BTC, with M2 money supply entering new territory earlier this month.
NEW: Global M2 money supply hits a new all-time high of $55.48T.
Will Bitcoin follow? pic.twitter.com/nTsJgETnB4
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) July 3, 2025
The battle for Bitcoin dominance heats up
Bitcoin’s dominance of the total crypto market cap its changing course — and with it hopes that altcoins will capitalize on the the gap left behind.
Related: Bitcoin Christmas rally to $200K or $300K possible based on ‘power law’ model
After touching 66% at the end of June, BTC dominance has fallen below 65%, briefly hitting one-month lows before rebounding.
Bitcoin’s presence is at a crucial stage. As Cointelegraph reported, historical patterns show that once dominance reaches around 70%, its uptrend reverses, giving way to what is popularly known as “altseason.”
Once $BTC.d – Bitcoin dominance tops we will see certain alts run like crazy.
Make sure to position yourself wisely. A few months can literally change your entire life. pic.twitter.com/qb34RAN8rl
— Crypto Caesar (@CryptoCaesarTA) June 30, 2025
So far, however, this cycle has given alt traders precious little relief.
“I know BTC dominance has taken a hit, but I think dominance will be higher by late October (similar to 2017, 2019, 2023, 2024 etc.),” Benjamin Cowen, founder and CEO of analytics resource Into The Cryptoverse, predicted this week.
Popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital nonetheless sees some early signs of a turnaround.
“Bitcoin Dominance merely dipped -2.5% and plenty of Altcoins are strongly performing. It doesn’t take much,” he argued at the weekend.
“One can only imagine what will happen when $BTC Dominance finally experiences double-digit downside.”
Commentator Matthew Hyland held similar ideas.
“BTC dominance hasn’t even sneezed and Alts are ripping,” he told X followers last week.
On weekly timeframes, several major altcoins stand out, beating Bitcoin’s gains. These include largest altcoin Ether (ETH), up nearly 20% in seven days to return above $3,000 for the first time since February.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
