The hardest win is the last one.
To date, the 2024-2025 Oklahoma City Thunder have won 83 games. Their point differential was an astonishing 12.9 points in the regular season – higher than even the 12.3 ppg mark held by the historically dominant 1971-72 Los Angeles Lakers – and just a hair under 10 points per game in 21 playoff games. Despite a few close calls and some gut-check moments, the Thunder have been the clear best team in the NBA all season long. This squad’s cumulative body of work stands alongside the best, most dominant, most incredible teams in the league’s near eight-decade history, and they stand on the precipice of true immortality.
But they still need to win one more game.
The Indiana Pacers seemingly have no business being here. Their regular-season point differential is a paltry plus-2.3 points. They won 50 games and qualified as the No. 4 seed in a subpar Eastern Conference. I don’t think the Pacers have been the betting favorite in more than a handful of playoff games this year (less than five?). Even the most bullish Pacers’ supporter, energized by their shellacking of an undermanned Giannis-and-what-else Bucks squad in round one, did not expect them to beat the 64-win Cavs or the red-hot, Celtics-slaying Knicks in either of the next two rounds.
The Pacers turned several miraculous wins into dominating series triumphs. Even if they seemingly had no business being here, their play speaks for itself. They are worthy title contenders, and exactly the type of team that thrives the instant it is counted out.
But they still need to win two more games.
The Pacers had their chances in both Game 4 and Game 5. Indy had all the momentum, all the crowd noise, all the juice in Game 4, but the Thunder snuffed that out the way they always do – suffocating defense and the metronomic excellence of Shai Gilgenous-Alexander in the midrange. The Pacers had their chance to go up 3-1, but the Thunder did what they do. It’s the kind of stretch that defines a championship run.
Could the Pacers do the unthinkable and swing the momentum back in their direction on the road?
For a second, it seemed possible. OKC squeezed the life out of Indy in the first 25 or so minutes of the game, but the score was still within the never-say-die Pacers’ striking range. TJ McConnell went to work, almost singlehandedly dragging Indiana back into the game while their focal point Tyrese Haliburton sat and watched.
If you’ve read this column for any extended period, you know I hate the media driven “STEP UP!” culture that swirls around All-Star performers who struggle to stuff the stat sheet against elite defenses geared to stop them, but in this specific instance, I’ll make an exception. Indiana came ever-so-close to pulling off the impossible with McConnell, but Haliburton just, well, didn’t have it. Don’t look at me to defend 0-6 and minus-13 in 34 minutes.
The NBA Finals are brutal. The margins are razor thin. On Monday night, OKC’s All-NBA representatives (Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams) combined for 71 points, with Williams dunking and driving his way to 40. Their role players defended like demons. They took care of the ball (24 assists to 11 turnovers). They made their 3s and FTs (44% and 81% respectively). Frankly, they took care of business.
Game 6 is Thursday. Win one and you live forever. Conversely, win two and you pull off the impossible. For all the casuals who decided to take this series off, good. We don’t need you. This is the good stuff.
And 1’s:
• The Orlando Magic brain trust have clearly watched this series and determined that their team is not that far away from what Indiana is accomplishing. Honestly, I don’t disagree.
The Magic sent a king’s ransom to the Memphis Grizzlies for Desmond Bane – a player I frankly did not expect to get traded this summer. Kudos to the Grizzlies for holding out for a monster haul (headlined by the 2026 Phoenix/Orlando/Washington swap pick, the No. 16 pick in this year’s draft, and unprotected picks in 2028 and 2030) in exchange for their stud shooting guard. Memphis takes on Cole Anthony and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (who was quietly terrible for Orlando after signing a 3-year, $66 million deal last offseason) to make the contracts work and signals that this squad is open for business and likely fielding calls on Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr.
Orlando, meanwhile, took the calculated risk that Paolo Banchero is too good in a weak Eastern Conference for those picks to really matter much and went all-in on a position of need with a player who possesses exactly the skillset this team desperately needs. Bane has quietly been one of the league’s best catch-and-shoot players ever since he entered the league, and unlike most stand-still shooters who typically assume that title, Bane brings added ball-handling juice and defensive toughness.
I keep thinking about what Bane was able to accomplish during Morant’s, um, firearm-related sabbatical, scoring nearly 24 a game, while playmaking to the tune of 5-6 assists every night and defending his butt off. Bane has an Orlando player’s mentality with the added benefit of being able to make an open jumper when the defense collapses on Banchero. This is an incredible short-term win for the Magic, but it has possibly ruined trade season for everyone else. Think of what Phoenix is now going to ask for Kevin Durant or what Milwaukee will demand if Giannis Antetokounmpo elects to ask out. This deal immediately brings to mind the Mikal Bridges trade – king’s ransom for a borderline All-Star – but I like this deal even better for Orlando. Bane fills a primary need for a team on the ascent in a conference that is any team’s for the taking. Even if Orlando “overpaid,” who cares? This makes the league more interesting.
• Speaking of Durant, where do we want him to end up? I don’t care at all what Phoenix gets in the trade – Mat Ishbia has managed this franchise into oblivion – but I do care about what makes the league better. I think the best outcome is Houston. He delivers exactly what the Rockets are missing, and they have exactly the right blend of contracts (Dillon Brooks, Steven Adams, maybe even Jalen Green?), picks (including the Suns’ No. 10 pick in this year’s draft), and young assets (Reed Sheppard, Cam Whitmore) that make it worth Phoenix’s time, while keeping the bones of this year’s No. 2 seed in the West intact for KD to make another late-in-career Finals run. Call it in.
