It would seem fitting to try to pick my way through the press accounts of the Trump-Putin summit, except they are abjectly awful, chock-full of obvious bogosities and spin. Exhibit 1 of the horrorshow of mainstream reporting is the Wall Street Journal’s breathless exclusive claiming that the US is willing to provide security guarantees. To Russia, that is tantamount to having NATO in Ukraine and is a non-starter.
The summit was an obvious win for Putin, since he got to demonstrate in clips aired on national television that he does not have hooves and horns in his short mini-press conference statement.
More substantively, it appears, at least for the moment, that the US side has dropped its demand for “ceasefire first, deal later” and have accepted the Russia position that a settlement has to precede a cessation of hostilities.
Trump-Putin Summit:
President Trump has posted his assessment of the day and of the way ahead on Truth Social. pic.twitter.com/KFgwlBiNmF— Ajay Bagga (@Ajay_Bagga) August 16, 2025
One does need to point out that the summit was truncated. It was set to run 7 hours, with an agenda for various sub-group meetings and a “working breakfast”. Instead, it ended at a bit over three hours, with Putin and Trump making short statements. The normally press-loving Trump not taking questions was out of character.
There’s plenty of other nonsense which I do not think is helpful to reinforce by repeating it to then debunk or otherwise show considerable evidence against that. For those with sterner constitutions than mine, one good overview comes from Simplicius the Thinker in his latest post, Zelensky Drags Traveling Circus to Town for One Last Encore. You can also watch Alexander Mercoursis, staring from the top of his latest commentary, walk through the various media claims and why they are contradicted by other evidence or are otherwise sketchy.
If we want to guess where this might all be going, Trump is giving another good college try at cinching a peace pact. But as we have pointed out, Ukraine, even in its debilitated state, and the Europeans still have agency. And Trump has a tendency to be unduly influenced by whoever he spoke to last.
So what we have so far might be considered to be Peak Summit. How far can the Administration get on its efforts to create momentum? Many have speculated that the real plan is for Trump to finally pin the Project Ukraine tail on the Ukraine and European donkey and have the US exit any role.
But even more important than the Europeans and Ukraine is that the neocons and the Blob also have agency. Admittedly there is a large cohort, as we and others have pointed out, that wants the US to disengage from our Ukraine misadventure so as to husband resources for Enemy #1, China. So the hawkish insiders are divided, and might not be able to form enough of a unified position to stymie the current Trump scheme….whatever it actually amounts to.
Putin has described how he has come to understandings with US presidents and had them come to naught. He described this process long-form in the four-hour documentary series with Oliver Stone, when he first encountered it with President Bush. Putin didn’t say what that agreement was about, but when his side followed up, they first got no response and then, 18 months later, received bafflegab excuses that amounted to a reversal.
He’s made the same point in other talks:
Putin spitting some hard facts
Real power in US rests with “dark suited men with dark ties” not with president
— Mac (@pattaazhy) June 7, 2025
The Russia-haters may have come to recognize that their sanctions and secondary sanctions threats are empty. As we pointed out, the additional 25% tariffs against India for purchasing Russia energy, set to kick in shortly, have been hollowed out, with most goods excluded, and the only sector meaningfully targeted is India’s diamond and gemstone industry. Modi’s family is in the diamond business and before becoming Prime Minister, he was chief minister of Gujarat, which is a diamond hub. So this sector is important to Modi personally and politically. Even so, there seems to be perilous little in the way of public acknowledgement that the secondary sanctions on India were a monster own goal, not punitive enough (for the US’ own sake!) to change India’s behavior and served merely to alienate India to the degree that it will severely damage US-India relations and drive India, which has leery of cooperating too much with rival China, closer to the Middle Kingdom.
We’ll know much more after the Trump meeting with Zelensky and the Europeans on Monday. Politico’s European morning newsletter recaps the Administration efforts to bring Zelensky to heel versus the European full court press to get Trump to live up to the sweet nothings he told them before the Alaska session:
WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING: U.S. President Donald Trump piled pressure on his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy ahead of their crucial meeting in the White House. “President Zelenskyy of Ukraine can end the war with Russia almost immediately, if he wants to, or he can continue to fight,” Trump said on Truth Social this morning …
Trump’s terms: Trump set out his conditions for peace, saying Ukraine would not be getting Crimea back and “NO GOING INTO NATO BY UKRAINE. Some things never change!!!” …
Zelenskyy’s response: “Peace must be lasting,” Zelenskyy said in his own post after arriving in Washington this morning. “Not like it was years ago, when Ukraine was forced to give up Crimea and part of our East—part of Donbas—and Putin simply used it as a springboard for a new attack. Or when Ukraine was given so called ‘security guarantees’ in 1994, but they didn’t work.”…
DRIVING THE DAY: THE NEW PEACE POSSE
YOU’LL NEVER WALK ALONE: … Fearing Trump could try to force Kyiv to sign up to a bad peace deal that would pave the way for yet more Russian aggression, European leaders are flying in to back him up in the Oval Office….
All aboard: According to diplomats who spoke to Playbook, the initiative was put together by Finnish President Alexander Stubb and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. Alongside them are European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, France’s Emmanuel Macron and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni. Other leaders offered to join, but the guest list was deliberately kept short.
One potential stumbling block: Trump plans to face the White House press pool with Zelenskyy alone, before meeting together with the Europeans almost two hours later….
What does Zelenskyy’s backup crew want? “What we’re looking out for is the security of Europe not being compromised after all this is over,” said one European diplomat, granted anonymity to speak about the thinking behind the trip. “We’re making sure that we keep the pressure on Russia, ready to step up the sanctions the moment we feel that the Russian leader is stalling the negotiations. Strong security guarantees must come out of this, that’s the main thing.”…
Promises for peace: Meanwhile, allies hope they’ve gotten through about the need for deterrence against future Russian attacks. In an interview with Fox News, Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff said there was support for “much more robust security guarantees [and] EU admission” and even suggested “Article 5-like” protection was on the table for Ukraine, a reference to NATO’s mutual defense provisions.
However, even if the US hardliners have come to understand that going further with secondary sanctions gambit would increase US self-harm, they seem to have come up with a new gambitt, that of designating Russia as a terrorist state. Lindsey Graham laid out this option in a Fox interview with Maria Bartiromo:
Bartiromo: Joining me now with reaction is the chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham. Senator, thank you so much for being here. Your reaction to what you heard from Marco Rubio.
Graham: I think Marco’s right that Donald Trump’s the only guy on the planet thatcan end this war. Putin fears Trump and he’s been a uh I think he’s been tough. Azerbaijan and Armenia has been going on for 30 years. He ended that war, Pakistan, India just by force of will. So, he’s the right guy.
The only reason Putin’s in Alaska, he didn’t come to see how Alaska was doing after he bought it. He came to Alaska because Trump threatened to put a 50% tariff on India for buying Russian oil and gas. What’s the weakness of Russia? Almost all of their income comes from oil and gas sales. If we went after the customers of Russia and said you had to pick between the American economy and buying cheap Russian oil or gas, they would pick the American economy.
So here’s what I would say about President Trump. He’s the only guy that can do this. And my advice to President Trump and Marco is if you got to convince Putin that if this war doesn’t end justly and honorably with Ukraine making concessions also, we’re going to destroy the Russian economy. We have the ability to do it.
To Europe, why don’t you put tariffs on India for buying Russian oil? To Europe, why don’t you threaten China with tariffs for being the largest purchaser of Russian oil? To Europe, you can do more. If Europe and the United States banded to Russia that if this war does not come to an end, we’re going to destroy your fossil fuel economy. This war would come to an end.
My bill to make Russia state sponsored terrorism is based on the fact that Russia has kidnapped Ukrainian children taken from Ukrainian families and sent to Russia. They should be a state sponsor of terrorism, Russia, until they return their children. So any peace deal must include the return of the kidnapped children uh by Russia to Ukraine. If you don’t do that, that’s not a just end of the war.
And if Putin doesn’t return these kids, he should be a state sponsor of terrorism designation under US law. And that makes Russia radioactive.
So there’s plenty of things we can do to end this war. Donald Trump’s the best guy to do it. I’m cautiously optimistic. We’ll get there if we’re tough.
Bartiromo: I I want to ask you about getting tough on these sanctions and what other economic levers the president has. But we’re looking right now at the letter that our first lady Melania Trump sent to Vladimir Putin saying, “Every child shares the same quiet dreams in their heart. Uh they dream of love, possibility, and safety from danger.” She is referring to the children that have been taken as you just mentioned. Uh what do you want to see here? What happened here?
Graham: Russia went and took Ukrainian children and put them in camps. Yes. Yes. Uh 19,000 children according to international organizations have been taken from Ukrainian families by Putin through force of arms and sent to Russia. Some of them are being trained, 17 and 18 year old Ukrainian kids being indoctrinated in Russia to fight Ukraine. This is sick.
Our marvelous, wonderful first lady is appealing toPutin’s better nature. She cares about these kids. She has been great on this issue.
The problem is Putin could care less about children. He has sent 20,000 young Russians to their death just last month. He could care less about how many Russian soldiers die. He could care less about sanctions because he knows how toevade them. What he could not What he does care about is losing his customers.
So I just want to let everybody in the world to know. I think we have the ability to crush the Russian economy through putting tariffs on people who buy Russian oil and gas, buying cheap oil to prop up his war machine. And I intend to push that until I can’t push anymore. I intend to push the return of these children to I can’t push anymore.
If they do not return these children to Ukraine, the 19,000, then I’m going to push legislation to make Russia a state sponsor of terrorism under US law, which would make Russia radioactive. I want to end this war. I want to end the killing.
I’m not out to humiliate Putin, but I’m out to end this war in a way you won’t have a third invasion. How do youprevent the third invasion? If America gives security guarantees to Ukraine and continues to provide weapons by selling them to Europe for the benefit of Ukraine, there will be no third invasion. Donald Trump is the only president that can do that, and I think he will provide those security guarantees if we get a comprehensive peace deal. When it comes to land, I’m going to leave it up to Ukraine.
But here’s the reality. You’re not going to evict every Russian soldier from Ukraine. That’s the reality. There’s Russian control and there’s Russian ownership. Be very careful aboutrewarding Putin by giving him title to Ukrainian land through force of arms. That could uh jeopardize Taiwan. And if you’re not thinking about the effect a deal in Russia, Ukraine has on China,Taiwan, you’re making a big mistake. So,
I’ve got all the confidence in the world in President Trump to our European allies. Up your game. Quit complaining about what we’re not doing in America and do more yourself. Put tariffs on every country that buys Russian oil and gas cheaply to benefit Putin’s war machine. Do what Trump’s doing.
Bartiromo: So So are you committed then to putting those sanctions on China and on any European nation that continues buying refined oil and gas from Russia indirectly or directly?
Graham: Yep. Yes, ma’am. Uh, President Trump has, I have a bill that has 85 co-sponsors that allows President Trump to put tariffs from 0 to 500%. He determines the number on countries that prop up Putin’s war machine by buying his oil and gas. Now, that bill gives all the discretion to the president. He has imposed a 50% tariff on India, thesecond largest purchaser of Russian oil and gas that will go in effect in 21 days. That’s why Putin is in Alaska. that rattled him.
And when uh uh President Trump said, “I will sell weapons to Ukraine through Europe,” that rattled Putin. If we will take it to the next level and tell China, “You’re next,” then I think we can have an end to this war.
The second most important person on the planet to end this war is President Xi in China. If he went to Putin and said, “It’s time to end this war. I can’t help you anymore because you’re putting my country at threat,” this war would end.
So the way to end this war is to make Russia believe that if they don’t end it, we’re going to destroy their fossil fuel economy. Working with Europe, we can do that if we have the will.
Bartiromo: What’s your timeline? Do you have any clarity on when you would actually see a timeline of putting these punishing sanctions on the countries you’re talking about, including China and including Europe?
Graham: My my purpose for being on this show today is to let the world know I’m working with President Trump. I’m going to let him determine that. I trust his judgment. I can’t think of a better person to be in the room with Putin than President Trump. Call these media analysts who say this was a bust. That’s ridiculous. We have progress we didn’t have before. We have momentum for peace. We’ll see where it goes. So, I’ll leave it up to Trump.
Bartiromo: Senator, thank you very much. We will be watching your work.
Since I have studiously avoided listening to Lindsey Graham, it’s possible I may be getting the drift of his gist wrong. However, despite the ritual show of fealty to Trump at the top and close, remember that Graham conducts his own foreign policy, has met often with European leaders, and no doubt has gotten reports on the Trump pre-Alaska discussions with them and will get a detailed briefing on what transpires in the White House meetings on Monday. And with now 85 anti-Russia votes in the Senate behind him, he has a bludgeon. Trump has to consider that if things got really ugly, a good proportion could vote against him were there ever to be an impeachment trial in the Senate.
First, Graham is acting like he has not gotten the memo that the secondary sanctions on India have backfired. So if Graham is Not Happy with whatever comes out of the Monday White House session with Zelensky and UK/EU leaders, he may try putting that back on the burner.
Second, as far as I know, Graham threatening to designate Russia a state sponsor of terrorism as leverage with the Ukraine war is new, as is linking that scheme to issue of Ukrainian children. Even more worrisome is that Melania Trump raised the “oh the children” matter after the Alaska summit, even though it was already being addressed at the working group level in the continuing Russia-Ukraine negotiations.
Our incredible First Lady @MELANIATRUMP shared this powerful, deeply moving letter with President Putin. She speaks from the heart of every American in calling for a world where children, regardless of where they are born, can live in peace. pic.twitter.com/Soqrv1euAm
— Attorney General Pamela Bondi (@AGPamBondi) August 16, 2025
On its face, the First Lady’s letter is not at all about the Ukraine children in Russia dispute. But DC outlets were quick to lard up the issue. So one is forced to wonder how the media-savvy Trump team did not know where that line of discussion would go, raising the further issue of how genuine Trump is with respect to wanting to move closer to Russia’s settlement demands. From The Hill:
First Lady Melania Trump penned a letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin in which she raised concerns about the plight of children throughout Russia’s invasion of Ukraine….
More than 19,000 children were deported from Ukraine to Russia, adding that the actual number could be far higher, according to a Ukrainian government tracker….
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told reporters on Tuesday, ahead of the Trump-Putin summit, that Moscow has been stonewalling talks on the return of Ukrainian children.
Ukraine’s leader said that while occasional transfers have taken place, with the assistance of other nations, Kyiv has not been able to strike a wide-ranging agreement with Russia on the matter.
Recall that many were sent by parents of Russian descent in Ukraine for safety; others were moved by Russia out of what were seen as hazardous areas. There has yet to be any evidence that a Ukraine parent has asked the Russian government to return a missing child and Russia has refused to do so. My recollection from the YouTube-sphere is that Russia asked Ukraine to provide a list of missing minors for Russia to investigate, and it was vastly shorter than 19,000.
However, Russia will never be able to prove that the number of supposedly stolen children is less than 19,000, which seems likely to be the case. So Russia will be depicted as guilty regardless of the veracity of the charges.
Third, it’s simply nauseating to see a warmonger like Graham to profess concern about children yet full-throatedly back Israel’s genocide.
As far as the “state sponsor of terrorism” threat, it seems vanishingly unlikely ever to happen. We haven’t even put Iran in that category.1 Among other things, it would bar the US or US entities from buying Russian processed uranium, which the US needs and for which it has no substitute. Note also that despite Graham’s baying, that designation can only be made by the Secretary of State and is thus outside Congress’ purview. But so to are sanctions and tariffs, and yet here, Trump’s misguided action against India says that Graham and his uber hawk allies have been able to push Trump around.
One argument in Russia, which has saber-rattled about elevating the Special Military Operation to an anti-terrorist operation is that that designation would preclude any negotiations with the so-called Zelensky regime. The same issue would presumably hold with a US designation. Yes, Trump did effectively defy the US designation of North Korea by meeting Kim Jong Un in North Korea in 2019. But the existence of that stricture presumably would have greatly complicated coming to any formal agreement.
So there are many ways the neocons can sabotage either a peace initiative or a scheme to use the Alaska summit to engineer a US exit from Project Ukraine. And Lindsey Graham looks to be set to be out in front of them.
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1 An overview from the European Parliamentary research service:
The US State Department currently lists four countries as state sponsors of terrorism, ‘for having consistently provided support for acts of international terrorism’. Syria has been on the list since 1979, Iran since 1984, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) since 2017 and Cuba (again) since 2021. Iraq, Sudan and Libya previously featured on the list. The designation has wide-ranging consequences in the area of sanctions and state immunity. Sanctions include restrictions on US foreign assistance, a ban on defence exports and sales, certain controls over exports of dual-use items, and miscellaneous financial and other restrictions. The designation has important economic repercussions for all countries that continue to engage with the designated state, as they may fall foul of US secondary sanctions. As the same time, the designation removes the immunity before federal and state courts in the US to which foreign states are normally entitled. Both houses of Congress have now introduced legislation that would see Russia added to the list of state sponsors of terrorism. If Russia were designated as a terrorist state, it would no longer be immune from suits brought in the US by US nationals, members of the US armed forces and US government employees in relation to Russia’s actions in Chechnya, Georgia, Libya, Syria, Sudan and Ukraine, some dating back decades. Successful plaintiffs could execute their judgments against frozen Russian assets. The designation of a state as a sponsor of terrorism has traditionally been reserved for states the US considers ‘pariah states’. In essence, the US has no formal diplomatic or commercial relations with any of the states it has designated as state sponsors of terrorism. Canada also has a ‘State Supporter of Terrorism’ mechanism under its State Immunity Act, with Iran and Syria listed as state supporters of terrorism since 2012.
