Futures Storm To Another Record High After Blowout Tech Earnings

“Powell hawkish, QRA a damp squib. Just when it felt darkest, MSFT and META came to the rescue.” That’s how Goldman Delta-1 head Rich Privorotsky summarized overnight events in his overnight wrap and boy was he right: US equity futures are soaring deep into record territory following blowout earnings from META and MSFT, which are +11.8% and +8.4% pre-mkt, and traders are asking if AAPL and AMZN – which report after the close – can provide an encore performance? As of 8:00am, S&P futures are 0.9% higher, having risen more than 1% earlier, while Nasdaq futures are surging as much as 1.3% after results and spending plans from Meta and Microsoft confirmed the AI trade is here to stay. That’s helping traders overlook Trump’s last-minute tariff curveballs and a more hawkish tone from Fed Chair Powell. Yields are 1-2bp lower as USD is flat. Commodities are mixed with Energy somehow weaker even though it appears that the world’s entire future is based on data center construction for the next several decades; Ags are stronger, gold is up/silver down, and base metals weaker with copper down more than 20% on adjustments to copper tariff policy. Overnight, US/S.Korea reached a deal for 15% plus $350bn in investments and $100bn in energy purchases. Brazil stays at 50% but delayed start with some exemptions (commodities, aircraft, orange juice). US says India to have 25% tariff plus penalty but negotiations to continue. This leaves Canada (call later today), Mexico, China, and Australia as major partners without an updated deal. Today’s macro data focus is on monthly PCE, Jobless Claims, Personal Income/Spending.

In premarket trading, most Mag7 stocks are flying: Meta surges 11% after Facebook’s parent company gave a strong revenue forecast and reported second-quarter results that beat analysts’ expectations. While it also raised its full-year forecast for capital expenditures, analysts said the company’s spending was justified by its growth. Microsoft shares rally 8% after the software giant reported very strong results, with notable strength in its cloud business and Azure product (Amazon +3%, Nvidia +2%, Apple -0.1%, , Tesla -0.2%, Alphabet -0.4%).

• Software, cloud-computing and semiconductor companies are rising as Meta and Microsoft raise capital expenditure plans.
• Alignment Healthcare (ALHC) rises 21% after the Medicare Advantage company said 2Q health plan memberships increased 28% from a year ago, topping estimates. The company also raised some year forecasts.
• Apellis Pharma (APLS) climbs 11% after reporting revenue for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Applied Digital (APLD) rallies 21% as the digital infrastructure company reports better-than-expected quarterly revenue, and says cloud infrastructure provider CoreWeave to lease an additional 150MW of capacity at the North Dakota data center campus. CoreWeave (CRWV) shares jump 10%.
• Arm Holdings Plc (ARM) falls 6% after the company gave a lower-than-expected profit forecast for the current period after ramping up spending on new products.
• Carvana (CVNA) soars 15% after the online car retailer reported revenue during the second quarter that exceeded the average analyst estimate.
• Confluent (CFLT) falls 29% as analysts, including at Stifel, downgrade the application software company’s stock, citing a tough outlook for revenue growth amid cloud usage optimization and lackluster customer additions.
• CVS Health (CVS) rises 7% after the company boosted its adjusted earnings-per-share guidance for the full year, following second-quarter results that also topped expectations.
• Datadog Inc. (DDOG) is down 3% as a filing showed Chief Executive Officer Olivier Pomel sold shares of the software company.
• EBay (EBAY) jumps 14% after the online auction company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook seen as positive.
• PTC Inc. (PTC) rises 7% after the software company reported third-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast.
• Norwegian Cruise (NCLH) jumps 8% after the cruise operator reported adjusted Ebitda for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. The firm also boosted its outlook for occupancy rates for the full year, topping Wall Street’s expectations.
• Qualcomm (QCOM) falls 6% after the chipmaker reported its third-quarter results and gave an outlook. Analysts say the report disappointed with the company’s handset market.
• Shake Shack (SHAK) falls 8% after the burger chain providing a 3Q revenue outlook that disappointed.
• TransMedics (TMDX) rises 17% after the biotechnology company reported diluted EPS for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Tronox Holdings (TROX) drops 11% after the chemical company cut its year forecast for revenue and adj. Ebitda as management sees lower pigment and zircon volumes and price than previously anticipated. Management also cut the dividend
• Western Digital (WDC) jumps 8% after the computer-storage company beat fourth quarter estimates and provided first quarter forecasts above estimates. Analysts note potential gross margin upside and favorable supply/demand drivers.

Brace for another busy session, with Apple and Amazon reporting and core PCE data for June due. S&P 500 futures surge after blowout earnings from MSFT and META put the index on track for another record. Analysts said that Meta capex may reach $100b next year – an eye-popping 45% increase on this year’s projected figure. Microsoft is also spending big on AI. Along with better-than-expected growth in its cloud business, that’s set to help it become the second company ever to reach a $4 trillion market cap. If even a portion of Microsoft’s 8% premarket gain holds through the start of cash trading, the tech giant is set to match the feat of Nvidia, which hit the $4 trillion milestone earlier this month. Apple and Amazon.com are due to report later Thursday.

Headline-grabbing earnings are helping to allay fears about a tariff-driven slowdown in the world’s biggest economy and justifying high stock valuations. Investors are also navigating trade tensions and central bank decisions.

“It’s really the good results in the US which are providing a tailwind for markets,” said Karen Georges, a fund manager at Ecofi. “We needed the Mag 7 to deliver this quarter for the rally to continue throughout the summer.”

The deluge of data continues Thursday, with reports on jobless claims and monthly core inflation due before the open of trading. The PCE deflator, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, is likely to show a quicker rate of price growth than the CPI index has revealed, bolstering the Fed’s go-slow approach, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.  

Treasuries rose across the curve, helping to reverse some of their pullback Wednesday after Powell said no decision had been made about easing policy in September. The dollar traded at its highest levels since May. “Our base case remains that the Fed will begin cutting rates in the second half of this year as we expect the economy to continue to slow,” Richard Clarida, global economic advisor at PIMCO wrote in a note after the meeting. “However, uncertainty remains high and data will continue to drive the Fed.”

European stocks are down, having given up earlier gains. Losses in mining and travel shares have weighed on the Stoxx 600. Rolls-Royce shares soar to a record after the aircraft-engine maker raised its outlook for the year, while AB InBev plunges on its latest results. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:

• Rolls-Royce rises as much as 12% after the aero engine maker increased guidance for the year by more than analysts expected. Strong margin performances in the civil aerospace and power systems divisions drew particular attention
• BBVA jumps 9.1% after the Spanish lender beat estimates, improved its guidance and vowed to step up investor payouts. Shares have underperformed so far this year as the bank pursues a takeover bid of Banco Sabadell
• Safran raised its full-year guidance for free cash flow, revenue growth and operating income well above analysts expectations, sending its shares up 4.3% to a record high
• Argenx surges as much as 16%, the most in two years, after the biotech company reported Vyvgart sales for the second quarter that JPMorgan analysts called a “significant beat.” Barclays said a high bar for success has been met
• Societe Generale shares jumped as much as 8.5% to the highest level since Oct. 2008 after the French lender reported an upbeat 2Q set of earnings. The bank surpassed estimates and increased its profitability target for 2025
• Shell rises as much as 3.5% after the oil company reported adjusted profit for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate, and announced a $3.5 billion share buyback. Analysts at RBC note strong marketing result
• Rentokil jumps as much as 12%, the most in over a year, after the pest controller confirmed its full-year guidance and posted results in line with expectations. Analysts note encouraging trends in the firm’s growth initiatives
• AB InBev falls as much as 11%, the steepest decline since 2020, after second-quarter volumes missed estimates. All regions missed expectations barring North America, with Latin America a particular area of weakness, analysts says
• Mining shares are the worst-performing sub-index in the Stoxx 600 on Thursday after US President Donald Trump imposed a 50% tariff on some copper imports, but excluded the most widely imported form of the metal
• Sanofi shares drop as much as 3.7%, the most in two months, after the French drugmaker reported weaker-than-expected earnings for the second quarter, overshadowing a sales beat
• Accor shares fall as much as 13% in brisk volumes, their biggest one-day plunge since the Covid-19 drop of March 2020, after the hotel operator unveiled disappointing guidance
• Eramet shares drop as much as 9.8%, the most in nine months. The mining and metallurgy firm reported weaker-than-expected results in the first half, driven by production and logistical issues, mainly in lithium
• Straumann falls as much as 6.6%, the most since April 7, after US peer Align Technology — which makes clear dental braces — reported weaker-than-expected second-quarter results and provided an outlook which also missed estimates

Earlier in the session, Asian equities were set for their longest losing streak since December, as economic gloom and disappointment over outcomes from a key political meeting swamped shares in China. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.4%, poised for a fifth-straight daily decline. Samsung Electronics was among the biggest drags after disappointing earnings. Stocks in Tokyo bucked the regional drop, maintaining gains after the Bank of Japan kept policy rate unchanged.  Equity benchmarks in Hong Kong and mainland China declined more than 1% amid weak economic data and little positive surprise from a key government meeting. Some negative sentiment also carried over to the region from US trading overnight after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said there’s been no decision on easing policy in September. Indian shares erased earlier losses as President Donald Trump said both sides were still in discussions on trade after he threatened at least 25% tariff on imports from the South Asian nation. Meanwhile, stocks in Seoul swung from a gain to a loss as investors shrugged off a relatively light 15% US tariff. 

In FX, the Japanese yen is now about 0.2% weaker against the dollar, having erased an earlier gain after BOJ Governor Ueda reduced expectations of a near-term rate increase. The yen weakened to 150 against the dollar for the first time since April 2 as investors took comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda to be less hawkish than expected. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose, and traded at its highest levels since May. The euro climbs 0.3% after showing little reaction to regional euro-area inflation data that was largely in line with estimates.

Treasuries rose across the curve, helping to reverse some of their pullback Wednesday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said no decision had been made about easing policy in September. US yields are mostly richer by 1bp-3bp with 2-year little changed, flattening 2s10s curve by 1.5bp, 5s30s by less than 1bp; 10-year lower by 3bp near 4.34%, outperforming Germany’s by about 1.5bp while UK 10-year keeps pace. European government bonds are mixed. Both the UK and German yields curves flatten with the short-end underperforming.

In commodities, US crude futures fall 0.8% to near $69.50 a barrel. Spot gold rises $32 to around $3,307/oz. Copper prices slipped 0.7% on the London Metal Exchange Thursday — following a collapse in New York — after US President Donald Trump shocked the metals world by exempting the most widely traded forms of copper from his hotly anticipated import tariffs.

Bitcoin rises 1.2% and above $118,000. 

To the day ahead now, for the data releases in the US, the focus will be on June personal income/spending (includes PCE price indexes), 2Q employment cost index and weekly jobless claims (8:30am) and July Chicago PMI (9:45am, several minutes earlier to subscribers). The earnings calendar will remain busy with Apple and Amazon being the main highlight, while in Europe we have Rolls-Royce and BMW.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +1.4%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.2%
• Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
• DAX +0.1%
• CAC 40 -0.2%
• 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.36%
• VIX -0.6 points at 14.9
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1218.53
• euro +0.4% at $1.1445
• WTI crude -0.2% at $69.84/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Trump announced a trade agreement at 6:15pmET Wed night with South Korea – South Korea will be charged a tariff of 15% (consistent w/Japan and the EU) and has pledged to provide $350B for investment in the US w/another $100B intended for energy purchases. Politico
• China reportedly summons NVIDIA (NVDA) on H20 chip backdoor security risk: Bloomberg.
• US Senator Warren (D) sent a letter to Commerce Secretary Lutnick asking that new rules developed by the Ministry maintain incentives for companies to keep computing infrastructure in the US: Punchbowl
• Trump once again threatened to suspend trade talks with Canada, this time over Carney’s promise to recognize Palestinian statehood. Politico
• BOJ left rates unchanged, as expected, but raised its inflation forecasts, spurring speculation that it could resume policy tightening later this year, although Ueda’s language in the presser cooled speculation of an imminent hike. FT
• Trump is set to hold a phone call w/Mexico’s president Thurs morning as the two countries search for a trade agreement ahead of the 8/1 deadline. BBG
• Top officials from big US trading partners have rushed to Washington in a bid to strike last-ditch trade dela with Trump less than 24 hrs before being hit again with the president’s highest levels of tariffs. Canada and Mexico sent delegations and were locked in intense talks with the Trump admin on Wednesday. FT
• AAPL iPhone exports to the US from India will remain untouched by President Donald Trump’s latest 25% tariffs on the South Asian nation, for now. BBG
• China’s NBS PMIs cool in Jul, with manufacturing coming in at 49.3 (down from 49.7 in June and below the Street’s 49.7 forecast) and non-manufacturing at 50.1 (down from 50.5 in June and below the Street’s 50.2 forecast) WSJ
• French inflation was stable in July at a level well below the ECB’s 2% target, supporting the case for more interest-rate cuts. BBG
• MSFT +8.5% in the pre mkt, Azure growth +39% cc vs. expectations for +35%, Total Revs $76.4% (+17% y/y) vs cons $73.8bn and EPS $3.65 or ~8% beat vs cons ~$3.38. META +11.8% pre mkt and new ATHs. Handily beat every line with less capex/opex pressure than expected … Ad revs ACCEL to +22% y/y cc, 2Q Revs $47.52bn (+22% y/y cc) vs guide $42.5-45.5bn vs cons $44.8bn (+15% y/y) vs +19% y/y cc last qtr: Goldman Sachs

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump announced that the US has agreed to a “Full and Complete Trade Deal” with South Korea in which South Korea will give the United States USD 350bln for investments owned and controlled by the US, and selected by Trump, while South Korea will also purchase USD 100bln of LNG, or other energy products and South Korea has also agreed to invest a large sum of money for their Investment purposes with this sum to be announced within the next two weeks when the President Lee comes to the White House for a bilateral meeting. Trump added “It is also agreed that South Korea will be completely OPEN TO TRADE with the United States, and that they will accept American product including Cars and Trucks, Agriculture, etc. We have agreed to a Tariff for South Korea of 15%. America will not be charged a Tariff.”
• South Korean Presidential Office confirmed US lowered tariffs on South Korean autos to 15% from 25%, while it added that chips and drug tariffs will not be worse than those applied to other countries and stated that USD 200bln of funds are allocated for chips, nuclear power, batteries, and bio sectors. Furthermore, it stated that the rice and beef market will not be opened and that South Korea demanded 12.5% auto tariffs but President Trump insisted on 15%.
• US President Trump posted “I don’t care what India does with Russia. They can take their dead economies down together, for all I care. We have done very little business with India, their Tariffs are too high, among the highest in the World. Likewise, Russia and the USA do almost no business together. Let’s keep it that way, and tell Medvedev, the failed former President of Russia, who thinks he’s still President, to watch his words. He’s entering very dangerous territory!”
• US President Trump will discuss Mexico’s plan to cut trade deficit with Mexican President Sheinbaum on Thursday ahead of the August 1st deadline.
• US President Trump plans to sign new executive orders on Thursday, imposing higher tariff rates on several countries that have been unable to reach negotiated trade agreements by Friday deadline, while this could include a number of America’s biggest trading partners, including Canada, Mexico and Taiwan, according to POLITICO.
• Pakistan’s government said the trade agreement with the US will result in a reduction in reciprocal tariffs, especially on Pakistani exports to the US, and is expected to spur increased US investment in Pakistan’s infrastructure and development projects. Furthermore, it stated that the US–Pakistan deal marks the beginning of economic collaboration in energy, mines and minerals, IT, cryptocurrency, and other sectors.
• US Commerce Secretary Lutnick announced trade deals were made with Cambodia and Thailand. However, the Thai Finance Minister later said they are still working a bit more on the trade proposal to the US and he expects to receive info on US tariffs within 24 hours.
• EU is to give 0% tariff for export quota of 1mln metrics tons of Indonesian crude palm oil a year under free trade agreement, according to an Indonesia official.

Earnings

• Meta Platforms Inc (META) Q2 2025 (USD): EPS 7.14 (exp. 5.85), Revenue 47.52bln (exp. 44.87bln); +12% shares pre-market.
• Microsoft Corp (MSFT) Q2 2025 (USD): EPS 3.65 (exp. 3.35), Revenue 76.44bln (exp. 73.76bln); +8% shares pre-market.
• Arm Holdings (ARM) Q1 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.35 (exp. 0.35), Revenue 1.05bln (exp. 1.05bln); -7% shares pre-market.
• Qualcomm Inc (QCOM) Q3 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.77 (exp. 2.70), Revenue 10.37bln (exp. 10.30bln); -6% shares pre-market.
• eBay Inc (EBAY) Q2 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.37 (exp. 1.30), Revenue 2.7bln (exp. 2.64bln); +13% shares pre-market.
• Western Digital Corp (WDC) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.66 (exp. 1.46), Revenue 2.605bln (exp. 2.46bln); +9% shares pre-market.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed in the aftermath of a hawkish Powell and strong mega-cap earnings stateside, while participants also digested the US-South Korea trade deal, disappointing Chinese PMIs and the BoJ policy announcement at month-end. ASX 200 was lacklustre amid losses in miners following weaker H1 earnings from Rio Tinto and with a record drop seen in copper prices after the Trump administration excluded refined copper from planned 50% tariffs. Nikkei 225 outperformed and reclaimed the 41,000 level after recent currency weakness and better-than-expected Industrial Production & Retail Sales from Japan, while the BoJ policy provided no major fireworks as the central bank kept its short-term rates unchanged but highlighted trade-related uncertainty and raised its Core CPI projections. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured following disappointing official PMI data in which the headline Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI figures missed expectations with the former remaining in contraction territory.

BOJ Announcement

• BoJ maintained its short-term interest rate target at 0.5%, as expected with the decision made by unanimous vote, while it noted that underlying inflation is likely to stall due to slowing growth but will gradually accelerate thereafter and underlying consumer inflation likely to be at a level generally consistent with the 2% target in the second half of the projection period from fiscal 2025 through 2027. BoJ stated that uncertainty over trade policy and its developments, and their impact on the economic and price outlook, remains high and noted that real interest rates are at extremely low levels, while it must have no preconception in judging whether the economy and prices are moving in line with the forecast. BoJ reiterated that it will conduct monetary policy as appropriate from the perspective of sustainably and stably achieving the 2% inflation target and will continue to raise the policy rate if the economy and prices move in line with the forecast, in accordance with improvements in the economy and prices. Furthermore, it noted there is high uncertainty surrounding trade policy developments and their impact on the economy and stated that a prolonged period of high uncertainties regarding trade policies could lead firms to focus more on cost-cutting and as a result, moves to reflect price rises in wages could also weaken. In terms of the latest Outlook Report, board members’ median forecasts for Core CPI were raised through to 2027, while the median forecast for Real GDP was upgraded for FY25 but maintained for the following two years after.
• Rising wages at Japanese firms are becoming the norm in recent years.
• No large change to central outlook that growth pace will slow down and underlying inflation stalls. Moves to pass on rising costs to prices continue. Underlying inflation could slow down in line with slowdown in economic growth. Underlying inflation is gradually rising; not in phase of stalling due to tariffs. Wage impact on prices not picking up too fast. Even if economy and prices undershoot BoJ projections, need to keep in mind that policy rates are low at 0.5%.
• Current FX rate not diverging far from BoJ assumptions.
• Will continue to raise policy rate if economy and prices move in line with forecasts, in accordance with improvement in economy and prices. Policy decision would not depend solely on new CPI forecasts.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.1%) opened higher across the board with a slew of mostly positive earnings from within Europe, and with significant post-earning strength in Meta and Microsoft also boosting sentiment. Though in recent trade, the complex has waned off best levels, with a few indices now slipping into the red; no fresh driver behind this pullback. European sectors are mixed, and with a fairly wide breadth of the market. Banks take the top spot, with several European banking reporting today; including from the likes of BBVA (+8%, Bottom line beat), SocGen (+7%, lifts annual targets), Credit Ag (U/C, broadly in-line), Mediobanca (-0.2%, in-line), ING (-0.3%, missed on NII, expects impact following sale of Russian business). Industrials have also been buoyed following key results from within the sector; Airbus (-0.6%, Q2 metrics beat but provided cautious commentary on meeting 2025 delivery target), Safran (+4.6%, Revenue beat and upped its rev. growth outlook for FY), Rolls Royce (+9%, soars after raising profit guidance). Basic Resources is found right at the foot of the pile, pressured by the significant losses seen in copper prices seen in the prior session.

Top European News

• German Finance Minister urged cabinet ministers to cut spending to close the budget gap of over EUR 30bln in 2027, via an interview with Ard-Tagesthemen.

FX

• The recent rally in USD has paused for breath after DXY stalled ahead of the 100 mark post-FOMC. To recap, the Fed held rates at 4.25-4.50%, as expected, with Governors Waller and Bowman dissenting in favour of a 25bps cut. In Powell’s presser, he said no decision has been made about the September meeting, and they will not let tariffs become inflationary, because they will make sure it does not become serious by deploying their tools. For today’s agenda, monthly PCE metrics for June will take centre stage with core M/M PCE expected to pick up to 0.3% from 0.2%. Note, desks expect that inflation is poised for further firming in the coming months. Elsewhere, labour market data in the form of weekly claims and Challenger layoffs are due ahead of tomorrow’s crucial NFP print. If the upside in DXY resumes and takes out the 100 mark, the next target will come via the 29th May peak at 100.54.
• EUR/USD is attempting to atone for recent losses, which have been driven by a combination of the fallout from the EU-US trade deal and yesterday’s FOMC policy announcement. For the Eurozone, regional CPI metrics have continued to drip feed into the market ahead of the bloc-wide release tomorrow. Metrics from France printed 10bps firmer-than-expected Y/Y on a headline basis but 10bps weaker for the normalised print. Regional CPIs from Germany have seen an uptick on a M/M basis from the prior and mixed Y/Y ahead of the mainland metrics at 13:00BST. EUR/USD has found support just above the 1.14 mark. If the level gives way, the June 10th low sits at 1.1373.
• JPY is softer vs. the USD in the wake of the latest BoJ policy announcement. The BoJ maintained its short-term interest rate target at 0.5%, as expected with the decision made by unanimous vote. The policy statement was one of caution given the uncertainties provided by the trade war and as such, there was little reaction to the release. During the follow-up press conference, JPY upside vs. the USD was pared and USD/JPY made its way back onto a 149 handle after Ueda refrained from any hawkish overtures, whilst emphasising that in the near-term, growth is expected to slow and inflation is set to stall. He also noted that the current FX rate is not diverging far from BoJ assumptions. USD/JPY ventured as high as 149.72. If 150 gives way, that will open up a potential move towards the pre-Liberation Day high at 150.54.
• GBP is slightly firmer vs. the USD with Cable almost entirely at the whim of the USD given how barren the UK docket has been this week. That is set to remain the case until next week’s BoE policy announcement, which is 82% priced for a 25bps reduction. Cable remains stuck on a 1.32 handle after delving as low as 1.3228 yesterday.
• Antipodeans both sit towards the top end of the G10 leaderboard following the current upbeat risk sentiment. For AUD, upside has been restricted as better-than-expected Building Approvals and Retail Sales data for Australia were offset by disappointing official Chinese PMI data.
• Brazil Central Bank maintained the Selic rate at 15.00%, as expected, with the decision unanimous and it expects an interruption of the tightening cycle, while it stated it is assessing the accumulated effects of the already implemented adjustment and will evaluate whether the current interest rate level, assuming it remains stable for a very prolonged period, will be enough to ensure inflation convergence to target. BCB said the Committee will remain vigilant and future monetary policy steps can be adjusted, as well as noted it will not hesitate to resume the rate hiking cycle if appropriate.

Commodities

• Flat to modestly lower, following a session of gains on Wednesday, continuing to be propped up by the shortened US deadline for Russia to reach a peace deal with Ukraine. WTI Sep resides in a USD 69.72-70.41/bbl while Brent Oct trades in a USD 72.10-72.82/bbl range.
• Mixed trade across precious metals with spot gold the marked outperformer despite a softer Dollar, but with haven flows emanating from tariff woes as the August 1st US tariff negotiation deadline looms. Spot gold resides in a USD 3,276.28-3,314.98/oz range at the time of writing, within yesterday’s USD 3,268.12-3,334.09/oz parameter.
• On Wednesday, Comex copper prices slumped over 20% after the White House provided details on the copper tariff, with a universal 50% tariff on imports of semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivative products effective August 1st, while refined and concentrate imports will be excluded. 3M LME copper prices reside in a USD 9,575.15-9,820.78/t range while CME prices trade in a USD 4.3332-4.652/lb parameter.
• Kazakhstan Energy Minister says it plans to supply 1.7mln T oil via BTC pipeline in 2025; Russia wants to increase oil transit to China via Kazakhstan by 2.5mln T.
• Russian Deputy PM Novak says discussed situation on the oil market and prospects for cooperating between the two countries within the OPEC+ framework with Saudi Energy Minister.
• India is reportedly mulling options to appease US President Trump following a “shock” 25% tariff level, according to Bloomberg sources; India reportedly mulling upping its natgas purchases from the US, and imports of communication equipment and gold.

Geopolitics

• Canadian PM Carney said Canada intends to recognise the state of Palestine at the 80th session of the UN General Assembly in September. Israel’s Foreign Ministry commented shortly after that Israel rejects the statement by Canada’s PM over planned recognition of Palestinian state, and the change in the position of the Canadian government at this time is a reward for Hamas and harms efforts to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza and a framework for the release of the hostages.
• US imposed sweeping new sanctions on a vast international oil trading network which it claimed has funnelled tens of billions of dollars in oil revenue to Iran, according to FT.

US Event Calendar

• 7:30 am: Jul Challenger Job Cuts YoY, prior -1.6%
• 8:30 am: Jun Personal Income, est. 0.2%, prior -0.4%
• 8:30 am: Jun Personal Spending, est. 0.4%, prior -0.1%
• 8:30 am: Jun Real Personal Spending, est. 0.12%, prior -0.3%
• 8:30 am: Jun PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1%
• 8:30 am: Jun PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.5%, prior 2.3%
• 8:30 am: Jun Core PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
• 8:30 am: Jun Core PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.7%, prior 2.7%
• 8:30 am: 2Q Employment Cost Index, est. 0.8%, prior 0.9%
• 8:30 am: Jul 26 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 223.5k, prior 217k
• 8:30 am: Jul 19 Continuing Claims, est. 1953k, prior 1955k
• 9:45 am: Jul MNI Chicago PMI, est. 42, prior 40.4

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

While the Fed kept rates steady yesterday, a hawkish-leaning tone from Fed Chair Powell led markets to trim the amount of Fed cuts priced by year-end by a full 10bps. Higher yields and a solid US Q2 GDP print in turn left the dollar on course for its best week since 2022, cementing a July revival of the US exceptionalism story that had suffered in the first half of the year. While Powell’s “wait-and-see” tone saw the S&P 500 decline -0.12% yesterday, S&P futures are up nearly 1% this morning following strong results from Microsoft and Meta that have reignited the hype around AI investment. And in case this was not enough news to digest, we’ve also had an array of tariff headlines ahead of President Trump’s August 1 deadline.

Starting with the FOMC, there were two dissents to the on-hold decision (at 4.00-4.25%), with Fed Governors Waller and Bowman supporting a 25bps cut. The prepared statement saw a modest downgrade to the language on growth, but Powell’s press conference leaned more hawkish as he painted a picture of a solid US economy with a labour market that is in balance. While the Fed Chair acknowledged that a “reasonable base case” was that the impact of tariffs on prices would be a one-time shift, he noted the risks that it could be more persistent and even went as far as saying “You could argue we are a bit looking through goods inflation by not raising rates”. While seeing the modestly restrictive stance as currently appropriate, Powell declined to be drawn on what data would justify a September cut. Our US economists note that Powell avoided potential dovish hints, not emphasizing slowing services inflation and downplaying any signals from payrolls weakness. They continue to expect the next rate cut in December, with earlier easing likely to require weaker labor market data. 

In other topics, Powell defended central bank independence as an “arrangement that has served the public well” when asked about the pressure from President Trump and emphasized that the Fed does not factor fiscal costs into their rates decisions. He declined to comment whether he would stay on the Fed Board after his term as Chair expires in May. Prior to the decision, President Trump had posted that the “Fed must lower the rate” as “(GDP) way better than expected.”
Following Powell’s press conference, markets sharply pared back expectations of near-term rate cuts. The likelihood of a September rate cut fell from 70% to 47%, with only 36bps of cuts now priced by the December meeting (-10.1bps on the day). Treasuries sold off in turn, with 2yr yields posting their biggest rise in six weeks (+7.3bps to 3.94%), while 10yr yields were up +5.1bps to 4.37%. Yields have retreated by about -2bps overnight.

Prior to the FOMC, long-end yields were already 2-3bps higher following the Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement. This was largely in line with our rates strategists’ expectations but perhaps disappointed some of the narratives that emerged to put downward pressure on yields the previous day. In the end, the Treasury continued to anticipate keeping coupon auction sizes unchanged “for at least the next several quarters”, while the quarterly buyback cap was increased from $30bn to $38bn, slightly more than DB expected ($34bn).

Front-end yields were also boosted by a solid Q2 US GDP print, as the economy expanded by +3.0% annualised (vs. +2.6% expected), rebounding from its -0.5% contraction in Q1. Personal consumption was a little softer at 1.4% (vs. 1.5% expected), but core PCE inflation for Q2 came in above expectations at 2.5% (vs. 2.3% expected), implying a stronger rise in today’s June PCE inflation print or upward revisions for April/May. In other data, the ADP employment report showed stronger job gains in July at 104k (vs. 76k expected), rebounding after a negative June reading.

Higher rates and solid data meant the dollar index (+1.06%) advanced for a fifth consecutive day, marking its largest daily increase since May and its longest winning run since February. With a +2.22% rise since Friday, it is on course to post its biggest weekly gain since 2022.

Powell’s “wait-and-see” tone weighed on equities, with the S&P 500 closing -0.12% lower on the day, having been up +0.3% pre-FOMC. The NASDAQ (+0.15%) posted a modest gain. Metals & mining stocks (-3.94%) led the S&P decline as new 50% copper tariffs announced by the US exempted refined metal, with tariffs on this to be phased in only starting in 2027. This exemption was a big surprise, with COMEX copper futures in the US plunging -20%, eliminating most of the premium that had emerged compared with prices in Europe.

The equity mood turned more positive overnight as strong results from Microsoft and Meta renewed AI optimism. Meta’s shares rose by +11.5% in post-market trading as its Q3 sales guidance exceeded expectations ($47.5-50.5bn vs $46.2bn est.) with the company claiming that new AI features were boosting ad revenue and announcing an increase in AI-related investment. Meanwhile, Microsoft gained more than +8% after-hours as it delivered stronger-than-expected Azure revenue growth (+39% vs +34% est.) and announced it will spend over $30bn on AI data centers in the current quarter. Following the results, futures on the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are up +0.95% and +1.35% respectively as I type. We’ll hear from Apple and Amazon after today’s close.

In other trade news, President Trump announced 25% tariffs on India starting August 1 in a social media post, though he later suggested the two sides were still in talks. He also mentioned that India will incur a “penalty” as one of the biggest importers of Russian energy and ammunition. There were no concrete numbers on what this penalty will be and if other countries buying Russian oil (notably China) could be affected also. Brent crude rose another +1.01% to $73.24/bbl on the news, with a 7% gain since Friday’s close.

In the evening, the White House then announced a trade deal with South Korea that will see it face 15% US tariffs, same as Japan and the EU, and establish a $350bn fund for investment into the US, with $150bn allocated for a shipbuilding partnership. Meanwhile, the US confirmed 50% tariffs against Brazil and Politico is reporting that President Trump plans today to sign executive orders imposing higher tariffs rates on several more countries that have been unable to reach agreements by the Friday deadline. President Trump had posted yesterday afternoon that “other Countries are making offers for a Tariff reduction”.

Asian equity markets are mostly lower this morning, with Chinese stocks lagging on the back of softer-than-expected official July PMIs. The manufacturing PMI came in at 49.3 (vs. 49.7 in June), marking the fourth consecutive month of contraction, while the non-manufacturing index fell to 50.1, its lowest level since November. The Hang Seng (-1.07%) and the CSI (-1.02%) are leading the equity decline, followed by the Shanghai Composite (-0.70%). Meanwhile South Korea’s KOSPI (-0.31%) is moderately lower following the deal announced with the US, while the Nikkei (+0.90%) is bucking the region’s negative trend.

In Japan, the BoJ overnight kept its policy rate at 0.5%, as widely expected. But in a hawkish undertone, the central bank revised up its inflation forecast for the current fiscal year from 2.2% to 2.7%, while also making slight upgrades for 2026 and 2027 inflation and to growth for the current year. The adjustments suggest that the next BoJ rate hike could be coming closer into view after four on-hold decisions in a row and the Japanese yen is trading +0.41% at 148.90 against the dollar this morning after hitting its lowest levels since early April during the US session yesterday. 10yr JGB yields are +0.8bps higher at 1.56%.

Turning to Europe, yesterday’s flash euro area Q2 GDP came in at +0.1% qoq, in line with our economists’ expectation and a touch above consensus (for 0.0%). Across the largest countries, France saw its Q2 GDP grow +0.3% (vs.+ 0.1% expected), but Germany (-0.1% in line with consensus) and Italy (-0.1% vs. +0.1% expected) saw marginal declines. In Germany, the federal cabinet approved the draft 2026 budget plan, confirming expected front-loading of fiscal stimulus and providing more details on the planned infrastructure spending.

European bonds initially saw a slight rally following the softer German GDP print, but yields were little changed by the close, with those on 10yr bunds (-0.3bps) and OAT (-0.5bps) marginally lower but BTPs up +0.2bps. European equities also saw muted moves with the Stoxx 600 seeing a marginal decline (-0.02%),while the DAX (+0.19%) gained and Italy’s FTSE MIB outperformed (+0.89%). The Stoxx aggregate was again weighed down by Novo Nordisk, which shed another -6.31% after Monday’s -23.11%, falling to 7th place in Europe after L’Oreal.

In yesterday’s other news, the Bank of Canada kept rates on hold at 2.75% as expected amid ongoing inflationary pressures, but left the door open for more cuts “if a weakening economy puts further downward pressure on inflation”. BoC pricing was little changed, with 18bps of cuts priced by year-end.

To the day ahead now, for the data releases in the US, the focus will be on US June PCE, personal income and
spending, and initial jobless claims. In Europe, the data highlights will be German, France and Italy July CPI prints – you see can our European economists CPI preview here. We will also have the eurozone unemployment and Canada May GDP. And the earnings calendar will remain busy with Apple and Amazon being the main highlight, while in Europe we have Rolls-Royce and BMW.