The U.S. economy has held up, but the evolving growth mix is impossible to ignore.
Following the post-pandemic lull, labor productivity snapped back, rising 1.6% in 2023 and 2.3% in 2024, pushing output even as hours worked cooled off.
Beneath the surface, total factor productivity rose 1.3% last year across private nonfarm businesses, underscoring the impact of technology and process upgrades.
A considerable chunk of that increase is linked to early-stage AI adoption, with businesses doubling down on automation and digital workflows. On the flip side, economists caution that the gains are uneven and aren’t broad-based.
That said, the near-term numbers point to sizeable volatility. GDP contracted at a -0.5% annualized rate in Q1 2025, and then swung back to +3.3% in Q2, with imports flipping from a drag to a boost.
As we look ahead, the OECD pegs U.S. growth at 1.8% in 2025, comfortably below the 2.8% logged in 2024, on the back of tariffs and labor headwinds, despite AI-linked capex providing some offset.
With that backdrop, Goldman Sachs analysts just dropped a head-turning Wall Street note on AI’s long-term role in reshaping baseline growth for the rest of the decade.
The call comes with real long-term implications for policy, profits, and positioning.
Goldman Sachs just reframed AI as a macro force.
Goldman analysts now expect the U.S. potential GDP growth to rise to at least 2.1% through the rest of the decade, on the back of stronger AI-led productivity gains.
“Artificial intelligence will drive productivity growth to 1.7% through the end of 2029, and then 1.9% in the early 2030s,” they wrote. That shift supports GDP growth in the 2.1% to 2.3% range, above the pre-pandemic baseline.
Recent history backs it up.
Goldman analyst Manuel Abecasis said:
Since 2019, economywide labor productivity rose about 1.6% per year, well above its pre-pandemic average of 1.2%. At the same time, elevated immigration in 2022–2024 boosted annual labor force growth to about 0.8% on average since 2019 (vs. 0.6% before the pandemic).
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Earlier this year, Goldman forecasted that AI could bump global GDP by 7%, roughly $7 trillion over the next decade, with an eye-catching $160 billion already added to “true GDP” through AI and investment.
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Productivity growth was 1.7% through 2029, followed by 1.9% in the early 2030s.
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Potential U.S. GDP growth is pegged at 2.1% to 2.3%, hovering above pre-pandemic norms.
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Immigration and higher labor force growth are also strengthening the baseline.
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Goldman sees AI adding $7 trillion globally, with $160 billion already in play.
