Tom Martello writes a regular column about the 2025 race for New Jersey governor.
Nothing delights a Jersey Republican more than when their candidate defies the conventional wisdom, beats the polls, wins votes from all corners of this still-blue state and compels Democrats to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory come Election Day.
Jack Ciattarelli, the Republican candidate for governor, could very well be guy who brings such unbridled joy to the GOP in New Jersey and across the nation on Tuesday. And nobody would crow more about it than Donald Trump, the frequent Jersey resident who endorsed Ciattarelli and would take his win as his own personal victory.
There would be grand irony here. While Trump will revel in a Ciattarelli victory, Jack would have won despite the president’s support, not because of it.
Sherrill
ACTUALLY … See Mikie Sherrill’s path to victory in N.J.’s red hot governor’s race on Tuesday. More analysis.
Did we underestimate Mikie Sherrill all campaign long?
You can’t find anyone in Jersey politics who would dispute this: Take Trump out of the equation, and Ciattarelli wins in a landslide.
The pre-election numbers-crunchers say it’s a tight race, but that Ciattarelli’s path to victory is tougher than Democrat Mikie Sherrill‘s. Pretty much all those polls (including internal ones run by the campaigns) put it within or just outside the margin of error, but none give Jack even a small lead.
While Democrats have been in a perpetual panic over Mikie’s campaign, some Republicans privately worry that all those ugly ads and all that money from the other side — and all the October chaos out of Trump’s shut-down Washington — is slowing Jack’s momentum at just the wrong time.
And yet …
If Jack celebrates on Election Night, nobody in Jersey will be shocked, despite what the national narrative will be. Hard fought? Yes. Overcoming odds? Sure. Shocking? No way.
Ciattarelli came into the race with some built-in advantages. This is the year a Republican is supposed to win in a state where the governor’s seat ping-pongs between parties because neither side ever solves high property taxes and angry voters figure it’s time to “throw the bums out” and try someone new.
He already had high name recognition and faces a candidate who began this race knowing lots about Washington … but not much about what plays in Woodbridge or Warren.
That “not one of us” strategy led to some pivotal moments. His campaign has repeatedly aired a set of devastating ads showing Sherrill inexplicably freezing when a TV interviewer asked the simple question of what she’d tackle first as governor.
In Jack’s wheelhouse
And the skyrocketing electric bills that showed up in your mailboxes this summer fit right into Jack’s wheelhouse: You’re paying so much more while Democrats ruled the roost in Trenton for so long, why would you want to give them four more years? Mikie has smartly also stressed costs, but many voters still link her to that other unpopular politician: soon-to-be-departing Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy.
And, at least from my perspective, Jack has an X-factor that isn’t necessarily showing up in the polling, and is being undervalued by many pundits. He has been campaigning non-stop for years, keeping a frenetic schedule that makes the Energizer Bunny look like a sloth on Quaaludes.
He’s gone to countless diners and conferences and churches and met with thousands of people in suburbs, farm country and cities … at Jersey’s red, blue and purple outposts.
What Makes Jersey Run
MORE: Predicting the winner of N.J.’s huge governor’s race | What Makes Jersey Run
What are Jersey’s insiders thinking about the contentious election in the final days?
It’s old-fashioned retail politics, a long-abandoned practice that once found candidates simply walking up and down business districts shaking hands. Richard Hughes reportedly shook 300,000 of them in his 1961 upset win. When Brendan Bryne was once given 24 hours off during a campaign, he was so worried about missing an opportunity that he popped into a bowling alley.
That ended when campaigns realized they could reach millions with TV ads, and they now target big swaths of voters on social media. And of course, Jack is all in on all of Facebook and its ilk. But the running joke is that he just won’t say no if you invited him to a Sunday dinner.
Republicans anxious that the poll numbers haven’t budged still hope all those handshakes and appearances could move the needle just enough in Ciattarelli’s favor. In a world where we are so disconnected, will a quick chat with Jack a few months ago persuade voters who can’t make heads or tails over all those negative ads?
Some Democrats worry about this under-the-radar stuff. One told me he’d recently praised a union leader for getting a nice crowd to a Sherrill rally and was told the rank and file were there out of loyalty to the union, but many had already voted for Jack.
More than a million residents have already voted early. Republicans, however, are famous for waiting until Election Day to cast their ballots. The early weather forecast: Sunny, temps in the high 50s. A beautiful day. For Jack, maybe a delightful night.
Editor’s note: This column is the second in a two-part series, designed to emphasize that — after covering the campaign all year — we still have no no idea who is going to win this tightest New Jersey gubernatorial race in history. You can read Part 1 here.
Read the original article on NJ.com. Add NJ.com as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
