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Mike Clay
Welcome to The Playbook for Week 2, which kicks off Thursday with the Commanders at the Packers.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
Additionally, we have folded the Shadow Reports, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns below. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start advice and waiver wire suggestions each week.
All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
WAS-GB | CLE-BAL | JAX-CIN | NYG-DAL | CHI-DET | NE-MIA | SF-NO | BUF-NYJ
SEA-PIT | LAR-TEN | CAR-ARI | DEN-IND | PHI-KC | ATL-MIN | TB-HOU | LAC-LV
Projected score: Packers 26, Commanders 25
Lineup locks: Jayden Daniels, Josh Jacobs, Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel
Fantasy scoop: The Packers’ comfortable Week 1 victory kept their pass plays to a minimum (26 dropbacks), but we did get a look at the team’s new-look WR room. Romeo Doubs (16 routes, four targets), Matthew Golden (13 routes, two targets), Dontayvion Wicks (nine routes, two targets), Jayden Reed (12 routes, five targets), Malik Heath (three routes, zero targets) and Savion Williams (one route, one target) were all involved. This deployment paints the picture of a wide receiver-by-committee approach, but it’s very possible Golden was limited a bit in his pro debut. The first-round rookie’s role figures to increase as the season progresses, and the targets will follow in more competitive, pass-friendly games. In the meantime, Golden, Reed and Doubs are no more than fringe flex options.
Over/under: 51 (highest)
Win Probability: Packers 57% (13th highest)
Projected score: Bengals 28, Jaguars 22
Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Hunter, Tee Higgins
Fantasy scoop: The Jaguars’ RB picture is a bit clearer after the team traded Tank Bigsby to the Eagles on Monday. Week 1 saw Jacksonville deploy four backs, with Travis Etienne (16 carries and three targets on 39 snaps) the clear leader and Bigsby (five carries on 12 snaps), LeQuint Allen (one carry and one target on nine snaps) and Bhayshul Tuten (three carries on four snaps) also involved. With Bigsby gone, the team will lean on the other three, with Etienne the clear top option … for now. Allen will be a factor in passing situations (he ran only four fewer routes than Etienne) and Tuten is positioned for more change-of-pace carries. Etienne showed well against a shaky Carolina defense in the opener and is a viable flex option this week. But should Etienne’s efficiency dip, Tuten will be a candidate for a larger role. The rookie remains a fine end-of-bench stash.
Fantasy scoop: Hunter was quiet in his NFL debut (33 yards), but there’s good news: The No. 2 pick was on the field for 30 of the team’s 33 pass plays and led Jacksonville in targets (six) and catches (six). Hunter, who was limited to six snaps on defense, is unlikely to maintain a 28% target share, but even if he’s closer to 20% to 25%, he’s a good bet for consistent WR2-3 production. He should be locked into lineups this week against a shaky Bengals defense.
Over/under: 49.2 (fourth highest)
Win probability: Bengals 71% (third highest)
Projected score: Cowboys 24, Giants 21
Lineup locks: CeeDee Lamb, Malik Nabers
Fantasy scoop: Javonte Williams was Dallas’ clear feature back in Week 1, playing 80% of the offensive snaps and totaling 15 carries and three targets. Williams was not overly effective (3.6 yards per carry, 3.3 yards per target) but bailed out those who started him in fantasy with a pair of short touchdown runs. Williams’ heavy usage is enough to position him as a fringe RB2 this week against a New York defense that gave up 164 yards to Washington’s RBs in Week 1. But if Williams’ efficiency doesn’t improve, it’s likely that Miles Sanders (50 yards on five touches in Week 1) and rookie Jaydon Blue (inactive) will chip away at his workload.
Shadow Report: Expect Trevon Diggs to shadow Nabers in Week 2. Diggs was limited in his return in Week 1, but when he was on the field, he shadowed A.J. Brown on six of nine coverage snaps. Additionally, Dallas chose to shadow Nabers in both 2024 matchups, with Diggs traveling with him in Week 4 and DaRon Bland following him in Week 13 (Diggs was out). Nabers was productive in both games, totaling 23.1 fantasy points and 14.9 points, respectively. He can, of course, be started with confidence, and Darius Slayton should be considered a Week 2 sleeper against Kaiir Elam.
Over/under: 44.7 (12th highest)
Win probability: Cowboys 62% (11th highest)
Projected score: Lions 27, Bears 22
Lineup locks: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Sam LaPorta
Fantasy scoop: Week 1 gave us our first look at Ben Johnson’s version of the Chicago offense, and, at least in the short term, it was good news for Odunze and bad news for Colston Loveland. Odunze paced the Bears’ wide receiver room in snaps (59), routes (34) and targets (9). Many of the looks came in the short area (7.6 aDOT) and limited him to 37 yards, but the second-year-receiver did find the end zone, and his 26% target share is certainly sustainable moving forward. Odunze should be in lineups as a WR3 this week. Loveland, on the other hand, was out-snapped 57-35 and out-targeted 4-2 by Cole Kmet. The rookie was on the field for only 22 of the team’s 43 pass plays (compared to 37 for Kmet), which isn’t enough to provide TE1 fantasy numbers. Loveland should be stashed on benches until his playing time increases.
Over/under: 48.1 (fifth highest)
Win probability: Lions 68% (seventh highest)
Projected score: Rams 26, Titans 20
Lineup locks: Kyren Williams, Tony Pollard, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Calvin Ridley
Fantasy scoop: Pollard was a clear feature back in Week 1, which was hardly a surprise with running mate Tyjae Spears (IR) sidelined. Pollard played a massive 89% of the team’s 55 offensive snaps. He handled 18 of the team’s 20 RB carries and, though he was targeted only once, was on the field for 31 of 34 pass plays. With Julius Chestnut (six snaps last week) and Kalel Mullings (zero) his only competition for work, Pollard is a strong bet to push for 20 touches again this week. He should in lineups as a solid, low-ceiling RB2.
Over/under: 45.6 (eighth highest)
Win probability: Rams 71% (fourth highest)
Projected score: Patriots 23, Dolphins 23
Lineup locks: De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill
Fantasy scoop: The Patriots’ running back deployment was a bit different than expected in Week 1, with Rhamondre Stevenson leading in snaps (45), routes (21) and carries (seven), compared to TreVeyon Henderson’s 23 snaps, 17 routes and five carries. Though he ran fewer routes, Henderson held an edge in targets (six to four) and was substantially more productive (51 yards on 11 touches, compared to 27 yards on nine touches for Stevenson). It’s likely that Henderson’s role will increase in time, but the limited usage as a rusher is enough to knock him down to the RB2/flex fringe. Stevenson, meanwhile, is a low-ceiling flex option.
Over/under: 46.1 (sixth highest)
Win probability: Patriots 50% (16th highest)
Projected score: 49ers 25, Saints 19
Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Ricky Pearsall
Fantasy scoop: George Kittle (hamstring, IR) is sidelined for at least four weeks, which opens the door for Jake Tonges and Luke Farrell to handle tight ends duties for the 49ers. Once Kittle departed Sunday’s game, Tonges ran 15 routes, compared to 12 for Farrell. Tonges caught a touchdown pass and the duo combined for 19 yards on four targets. Neither is a recommended fantasy start against the Saints, but the target shares of Pearsall (a lineup lock following a strong Week 1) and Jauan Jennings stand to benefit. Of course, with Brock Purdy sidelined, both have added risk. Pearsall is best valued as a WR3 and Jennings (if he’s able to play) a flex.
Fantasy scoop: The Saints attempted to be fantasy friendly in Week 1, force-feeding passes to Chris Olave (13 targets), Juwan Johnson (11) and Rashid Shaheed (nine). The bad news is that those 33 targets resulted in a total of 163 yards and zero touchdowns on 21 receptions. Johnson has been boom/bust throughout his time in New Orleans, though he now has 12-plus fantasy points in three straight games and five of his past eight dating to last season. He’s a good TE2 and a name to watch. Olave and Shaheed are on the flex radar but will be hard to trust with perhaps the league’s shakiest quarterback (Spencer Rattler) under center.
Over/under: 44.4 (13th highest)
Win probability: 49ers 69% (sixth highest)
Projected score: Bills 28, Jets 22
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Justin Fields, James Cook, Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson
Shadow Report: For the first time in his pro career, Sauce Gardner shadowed on a full-time basis in Week 1. New York’s top corner traveled with DK Metcalf on 29 of his 32 routes (29 of 29 perimeter) and helped limit him to 12.3 fantasy points. This week, there’s a reasonable chance that Gardner will travel with Keon Coleman, who established himself as Allen’s top perimeter target in the opener. Gardner’s strong showing in Week 1 suggests we should expect a regression for Coleman. He’s best valued as a WR3/flex.
Shadow Report: Wilson can expect shadow coverage from Christian Benford this week. Buffalo chose to shadow the Jets’ top target in both 2024 games, putting Benford on him in Week 6 and, with Benford handling Davante Adams, putting Rasul Douglas on him in Week 17. Wilson delivered an 8-107-1 receiving line on 10 targets in the first game and 7-66-1 on eight targets in the latter. Wilson obviously fared well, and, especially after Buffalo struggled to stop Baltimore’s receivers in the opener, his Week 2 outlook appears promising.
Over/under: 49.5 (third highest)
Win probability: Bills 73% (second highest)
Projected score: Steelers 22, Seahawks 18
Lineup locks: Jaylen Warren, DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Fantasy scoop: Those who drafted Kenneth Walker III had their worst fears realized in Week 1 as it was Zach Charbonnet who led the Seattle backfield. Whereas Walker was limited to 10 carries and three targets on 20 snaps, Charbonnet soaked up 12 carries on 29 snaps (he wasn’t targeted, but ran one more route than Walker). It’s possible Walker (who started) will reclaim lead back duties, but that’s far from a guarantee, especially after he was held to 24 yards on 13 touches, compared to Charbonnet’s 47 yards and one TD on 12 touches. Both backs will be hard to trust this week and make for fringe flex plays against a Steelers defense that is expected to be one of the league’s best despite a slow start.
Shadow Report: Riq Woolen shadowed Ricky Pearsall in the opener, and we can expect him to follow ex-teammate Metcalf in Week 2. Pearsall had little trouble against Woolen (he produced 108 yards on six targets), so Metcalf can be started with confidence.
Over/under: 39.7 (16th highest)
Win probability: Steelers 66% (eighth highest)
Projected score: Ravens 29, Browns 16
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Jerry Jeudy, Zay Flowers, David Njoku
Fantasy scoop: One of the big surprises of Week 1 was the Browns’ running back deployment. Jerome Ford paced the backfield in snaps (37) but barely touched the ball (six carries, one target). Fourth-round rookie Dylan Sampson, meanwhile, soaked up 12 carries and eight targets on 32 snaps. Bizarrely, Ford was out-targeted 8-1 despite operating as the preferred passing down back (24-16 edge in routes). Sampson’s quick emergence is enough to squash Ford’s sliver of fantasy appeal, but where this gets tricky is if Quinshon Judkins returns this week. If the second-round rookie plays (and even if he’s limited to some extent), this backfield will be best avoided. But if he remains out, Sampson will be a viable flex option. Once Judkins is up to speed, he’s likely to work as the clear lead rusher, especially after Browns RBs totaled 40 yards on 21 carries in the opener.
Over/under: 45.2 (11th highest)
Win probability: Ravens 89% (highest)
Projected score: Broncos 21, Colts 21
Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Courtland Sutton, Tyler Warren
Fantasy scoop: The Broncos’ Week 1 RB usage was as follows: J.K. Dobbins handled 16 carries and two targets on 37 snaps, compared to six carries and one target on 22 snaps for RJ Harvey and zero carries and six targets on 12 snaps for Tyler Badie. Harvey actually led the unit in yards (69), but Dobbins’ huge edge in touches (18, compared to a combined nine for Harvey and Badie) gives the veteran the edge in fantasy for the time being. Dobbins, who scored in the opener, is a deep league flex option, whereas Harvey should be stashed on benches until he sees an expanded role. Badie is a candidate for less work moving forward after catching two of six targets for 16 yards.
Shadow Report: Worried about Pat Surtain II shadowing Michael Pittman Jr. this week? It’s possible, especially after he locked down Calvin Ridley in Week 1. But keep in mind that Surtain did not follow Pittman in two previous meetings with the Colts (including Week 15 last season). There’s still some risk of a shadow here, especially after Pittman played well in Week 1, but it’s far from a sure thing, so Pittman remains on the flex radar. Denver gave up the second-fewest fantasy points to WRs in Week 1.
Over/under: 41.6 (15th highest)
Win probability: Broncos 51% (15th highest)
Projected score: Cardinals 25, Panthers 20
Lineup locks: Kyler Murray, James Conner, Chuba Hubbard, Tetairoa McMillan, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride
Fantasy scoop: At least from a usage standpoint, McMillan’s NFL debut was about as good as you can hope for. The first-round rookie played 82% of the offensive snaps and paced the team in targets (nine), air yards (118) and receiving yards (68). Carolina’s offensive struggles could limit McMillan’s TD output, but it’s very possible he’ll sustain a target share in the range of what he saw in the opener (27%) throughout the season. McMillan’s solid start is enough to make him a lineup lock WR3 against Arizona.
Over/under: 45.5 (ninth highest)
Win probability: Cardinals 69% (fifth highest)
Projected score: Eagles 25, Chiefs 25
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, Hollywood Brown, DeVonta Smith, Travis Kelce
Fantasy scoop: With Rashee Rice and Jalen Royals sidelined, and Xavier Worthy injured on his first pass route of the season, Kansas City’s top receivers in Week 1 were Brown (54 snaps, 16 targets), JuJu Smith-Schuster (46 snaps, five targets) and Tyquan Thornton (42 snaps, four targets). Worthy is expected to be sidelined for a few weeks and Rice can’t return from suspension until Week 7, which sets up Brown as the team’s top wideout. Though he won’t sustain a 42% target share, Brown has a history of heavy usage and WR2/3 production, so he should be in lineups against the Eagles. Smith-Schuster and Thornton are sneaky flex options in deeper leagues, but considering the depth of the position, you can certainly aim higher.
Shadow Report: Trent McDuffie figures to shadow Brown this week. That was how he was deployed when these teams faced off in the Super Bowl, with Brown delivering a 3-43-1 receiving line on five targets. McDuffie is a solid corner, so Brown’s bust rate is higher than usual, but he, of course, should remain in lineups.
Over/under: 49.9 (second highest)
Win probability: Eagles 53% (14th highest)
Projected score: Vikings 24, Falcons 20
Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson, Justin Jefferson, Drake London, T.J. Hockenson
Fantasy scoop: The Vikings’ Week 1 RB usage split between Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones was as follows: Mason held the edge in snaps (28-23) and carries (15-8), but Jones led in routes (10-4) and targets (3-1). The deployment was about as expected, though Mason’s sizable edge in carries is good news for his shot at weekly flex production (but minimal receiving work will remain a detriment to his ceiling). Jones caught a touchdown pass on a well-thrown wheel route, which bailed him out of an otherwise underwhelming day. Both backs are on the flex radar against Atlanta, with Jones’ receiving role supplying him with a tiny edge.
Shadow Report: Expect A.J. Terrell to shadow Jefferson this week. Atlanta’s top corner traveled with Mike Evans in Week 1 and shadowed often throughout last season, which included a Week 14 game against Minnesota. That week, Terrell aligned against Jefferson on 18 of his 32 routes (17 of 24 on the perimeter). Jefferson had no trouble, posting a 7-132-2 receiving line on seven targets. Most of that damage did come away from Terrell coverage, but top receivers simply haven’t had much trouble against Atlanta in recent years. Expectations for Jefferson can remain high.
Over/under: 44.3 (14th highest)
Win probability: Vikings 65% (ninth highest)
Projected score: Buccaneers 24, Texans 22
Lineup locks: Bucky Irving, Nico Collins, Mike Evans, Emeka Egbuka
Fantasy scoop: Houston utilized four tailbacks in Week 1. Nick Chubb was the lead (13 carries and one target on 28 snaps), but also involved were Dare Ogunbowale (two carries and two targets on 15 snaps), Woody Marks (three carries and zero targets on seven snaps) and Dameon Pierce (three carries and one target on seven snaps). Chubb ran the ball well (4.6 YPC) but remains a nonfactor in the passing game, which makes him an unappealing flex option. If Chubb were to sit out time, a three-headed committee probably would be in place, with none of Ogunbowale, Pierce or Marks a viable flex. This is a situation to avoid completely, at least until Joe Mixon (hopefully) returns later this season.
Shadow Report: Evans can expect the shadow treatment from Derek Stingley Jr. this week. Houston’s standout corner traveled with Davante Adams in Week 1 and held him to 7.2 fantasy points. Additionally, he shadowed on five occasions in 2024 and held that group to 13.8 fantasy points per game. Evans was held to 8.3 points while dealing with A.J. Terrell’s shadow coverage in Week 1, so it’s fair to lower expectations a bit against Stingley this week.
Over/under: 46.1 (seventh highest)
Win probability: Buccaneers 58% (12th highest)
Projected score: Chargers 25, Raiders 20
Lineup locks: Ashton Jeanty, Omarion Hampton, Jakobi Meyers, Ladd McConkey, Brock Bowers
Fantasy scoop: Hampton’s NFL debut wasn’t super impressive in the boxscore (61 yards), but the good news is that his overall usage provides a ton of reasons for optimism. The rookie out-snapped Najee Harris 50-11 and out-carried him 15-1. Hampton was limited to two targets but ran 18 routes to Harris’ five. It’s possible (perhaps likely) that Harris will get more work moving forward, but even if Hampton’s snap share drops a bit from what he saw in Week 1 (81%), he’ll still be well positioned to provide weekly RB1/2 numbers. Lock Hampton into your lineup against the Raiders, whereas Harris should be on either waivers or the end of your bench.
Shadow Report: Chargers wide receivers were excellent in Week 1, with McConkey, Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston each delivering at least five receptions, 68 yards and 13.4 fantasy points. The trio is in a great spot this week, as it’s set to face off with Raiders corners Eric Stokes, Kyu Blu Kelly and Darnay Holmes. The Raiders surrendered the sixth-most fantasy points to receivers in Week 1 despite facing a Patriots WR room that barely included Stefon Diggs (12 routes). Upgrade Los Angeles’ receivers.
Over/under: 45.3 (10th highest)
Win probability: Chargers 65% (10th highest)
