The “Sunday Night Football” slate kicks off with the Baltimore Ravens visiting the Buffalo Bills in a rematch of last season’s AFC divisional playoffs.
The Bills hung on for a 29-27 win in that game when Mark Andrews couldn’t secure a catch on a 2-point conversion attempt before being eliminated by the Kansas City Chiefs the following week in the AFC Championship Game.
This season, after some odds movement Thursday, the Ravens and Bills are co-favorites at +650 to win Super Bowl 60. Not surprisingly, the odds for Sunday night’s game (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC) are also tight. Buffalo is a 1.5-point home favorite, and the game has the highest points total of the week (50.5).
From odds to trends to picks, props and analysis from our experts, here’s everything you need to help make your decisions at the betting window.
Note: Odds at time of publication. For the latest updates, visit ESPN BET.
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Game picks | Prop bets | Betting trends
Game bets
Bills +1.5 (-120)
Pamela Maldonado: The matchup is razor thin, but there’s a strong case for Buffalo pulling it out late at home. Josh Allen in Week 1 is still one of toughest matchups in football. The Bills invested heavily in the defense this season to generate more pressure and tighten coverage, and early in the year before injuries inevitably hit, that unit should be at its best.
Offensively, Buffalo still leans on play-action, where Allen ranks top three in EPA, and the Ravens have struggled against blitz-heavy looks, something the Bills bring often. Lamar Jackson, and Derrick Henry keep it close, but Allen finishes the job.
ESPN Analytics projection: Even (Bills 51.1% chance to win)
Notable player props, bets
Josh Allen Under 231.5 passing yards (-120), Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-115)
Loza: The Ravens’ defense underwent an impressive midseason turnaround under Zach Orr last season, allowing the sixth-fewest passing yards (1,819) and third-lowest completion percentage (59.6%) to opponents from after Week 8. That was a stark improvement from Weeks 1-8, in which the defense allowed the most passing yards (2,331) and the 11th-most generous completion percentage (67.2%). Interestingly, Baltimore held Allen under 200 passing yards and zero passing scores in Week 4 of the regular season and in the divisional tilt last year. Assuming the Ravens’ improved secondary and formidable pass rush can pick up in 2025 where it left off in 2024, Allen is going to be more effective running than passing.
Mike Clay’s projection: Allen 238 passing yards
Derrick Henry 2+ touchdowns +375
Maldonado: Henry to have one (-170) is fair, but for Week 1 let’s be a little bold on a wager that has real value. The Bills’ defense was a red zone disaster last season, ranked 30th in red zone drive rate allowed, giving up red zone trips on 35% of opponent drives (tied third most). That’s where Henry thrives as Baltimore’s go-to option inside the 10, finishing the 2024 season with the sixth-most red zone touches. If the Ravens sustain drives early and lean on Henry in short-yardage spots, two scores are absolutely in play and worth a sprinkle.
Mike Clay’s projection: Henry 72% chance to score at least one touchdown, second-highest probability of the week
Mark Andrews over 45.5 receiving yards (-110)
Moody: Andrews gets a chance to bounce back after a rough ending to his season in the divisional round against the Bills, a game in which he had a costly fumble and dropped 2-point conversion. His receiving prop for this game seems low, given his production last season and a clearer path to targets with Isaiah Likely out. Andrews cleared this line in three of his last five games last season. He has strong rapport with Jackson and is projected for the second-most targets on the team behind Zay Flowers.
Mike Clay’s projection: Andrews 47 receiving yards
Betting trends
Courtesy ESPN Research
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Baltimore is 19-5-1 against the spread as an underdog since 2018.
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Buffalo has won 11 straight home games, the second-longest home winning streak in franchise history (15 consecutive in 1990-91).
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The Ravens and Bills are tied for the shortest odds to win AFC (+325) at ESPN BET.
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Lamar Jackson, the 2023 MVP and runner-up in 2024, has shortest odds to win MVP (+450). Josh Allen, last season’s MVP, is tied with Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow for the second-shortest odds at +600.
