Saturday brings us a pair of games with serious playoff implications.
The Philadelphia Eagles can clinch the NFC East with a win over the Washington Commanders. A Dallas Cowboys loss Sunday or an Eagles tie and Cowboys tie would also wrap up the division for Philadelphia. The Eagles are 6.5-point road favorites Saturday.
In the second game of Saturday’s doubleheader, the winner of the Green Bay Packers-Chicago Bears matchup at Soldier Field will be a step closer to the playoffs. A win and a Detroit Lions loss or tie Sunday gets the victor in. First place in the NFC North is also at stake. The Packers are 1.5-point favorites at Chicago.
Ben Solak, Matt Bowen, Pamela Maldonado, Eric Moody and Seth Walder offer betting and daily fantasy insights.
Note: Odds provided by DraftKings and subject to change.
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PHI-WAS: Picks | Props | DFS tips | Trends
GB-CHI: Picks | Props | DFS tips | Trends
The Eagles are a win away from clinching a playoff berth and the NFC East for a second straight year.
In their way are the Commanders, who have taken a big step back after facing the defending Super Bowl champions in last season’s NFC Championship Game.
The Eagles blanked the Las Vegas Raiders last week, and the Commanders snapped an eight-game skid with a win over the New York Giants.
The NFC East rivals will meet again in Week 18.
Game bet
Commanders +7 (-110)
Solak: Pretend the game against the Las Vegas Raiders never happened. The Eagles just lost as 7-point home favorites to the Bears, then again as 3-point road favorites to the Los Angeles Chargers in a game in which Jalen Hurts turned the ball over five times. Of course, the Raiders game did happen, but the Raiders are legitimately the worst team in football this year. Now the Eagles go on the road to face a divisional opponent that has memories of beating them last year and has nothing left to do but play spoiler. Are the Eagles deserving of a full touchdown on the road against any (non-Raiders) team right now? I’m unconvinced.
Notable player props, bets
Saquon Barkley OVER 78.5 rushing yards (-112)
Bowen: Barkley has seen at least 20 carries in back-to-back games. With the increase in volume and the matchup versus a subpar Commanders rush defense, Barkley can hit the over.
1:27
Why Dopp likes DeVonta Smith as a top-20 WR in Week 16
Daniel Dopp likes DeVonta Smith’s matchup against the Commanders but is tempering his expectations in fantasy Week 16.
Dallas Goedert anytime TD (+170)
Maldonado: Goedert’s red zone role is intentional. Five of his touchdowns have come on schemed touches behind the line, and only Davante Adams has more targets inside the 5-yard line this season. Washington allows a league-high 9.3% touchdown rate to tight ends, which is exactly where Philly attacks when drives tighten. Goedert needs just one designed look.
A.J. Brown OVER 62.5 receiving yards (-113)
Moody: Brown is set up for a strong showing against a vulnerable Commanders secondary that has allowed the eighth-most yards per game to wide receivers. He has cleared this line in three of his past five games. Washington leans heavily on man coverage, which plays to Brown’s strengths, and he has gone over this number in each of his past three meetings with the Commanders.
Eagles D/ST anytime touchdown (+500)
Walder: The Eagles’ defense — coming off a shutout! — is still playing great. The team ranks fifth in EPA per play this season and third from Week 11 on. When we get that unit against a backup quarterback — even a good backup such as Marcus Mariota — the chances of a pick-six or a strip sack leading to a scoop-and-score are increased, particularly with the Eagles being 7-point favorites. My model makes this +444, so it’s only a small value, but it’s a fun bet.
Daily fantasy tips for DraftKings Captain Showdown
Bowen’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Saquon Barkley ($15,900) has posted at least 92 total yards and a touchdown in back-to-back games. And the Eagles’ offensive line is moving defenders off the ball.
Also in my lineup: Dallas Goedert ($6,200) is an upside play based on his recent usage and red zone deployment. Goedert has at least six receptions and 70 yards receiving in back-to-back games, plus he scored two touchdowns in Week 15 versus the Las Vegas Raiders on schemed concepts.
Maldonado’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Jalen Hurts ($16,500) has the safest floor and a high ceiling. Washington allows a league-high 8.4 yards per pass and can’t get off the field, while Philly converts red zone trips into touchdowns at an elite rate. Even if the volume is modest, Hurts’ efficiency plus rushing equity keeps his floor intact.
Also in my lineup: Dallas Goedert ($6,200). The tight end’s role near the goal line is the cheat code. Five of his touchdowns have come on schemed touches behind the line. Washington allows the most fantasy points per target to tight ends.
Moody’s recommendation
In my lineup: Jalen Hurts ($11,000) has the most favorable matchup among Saturday’s quarterbacks. The Commanders defense has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the position. Hurts also presents a strong stacking opportunity with A.J. Brown ($9.800), DeVonta Smith ($8.800) and even Dallas Goedert ($6.200), as Washington has allowed the ninth-most points per game to wide receivers and the fifth-most points to tight ends.
Solak’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Marcus Mariota ($13,500). A $13,500 price tag for a quarterback who is going to run as much as Mariota is nice value and a good contrarian play. Mariota can get there stacked with multiple pass catchers or totally unstacked if he runs in a score and spreads his passing production around. In that I expect to be a high-scoring game, finding cheaper captain options who let us stack the flex aggressively can get us to unique lineups.
Also in my lineup: Dallas Goedert ($6,200). A touchdown scoring phenom this season, Goedert gets a Commanders defense that ranks 32nd in YAC surrendered per reception — a big deal in that Goedert is the Eagles’ primary dump-off player. We might see some big gains between the 20s for the tight end, who should also continue to see designed goal-line usage. He’ll be a common pick from the field in a pretty top-heavy price distribution, but he’s still a good one.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
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Six straight Eagles games have gone under the total.
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The Commanders are 4-1 against the spread in the past five meetings (overs are 4-1).
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The Commanders are 5-9 ATS this season, tied for the worst record in the NFL (3-8 ATS as underdogs).
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Jalen Hurts is 9-18-1 ATS in his career when laying at least six points.
14:35
Is the lack of Micah Parsons an EXCUSE for the Packers? Stephen A. says YES
Stephen A. Smith, Dan Orlovsky, Ryan Clark and Mina Kimes join Shae Cornette on “First Take” to preview the Green Bay Packers vs. the Chicago Bears in Week 16.
The Chicago Bears (10-4) are in first place in the NFC North and currently hold the No. 2 seed in the NFC. But the Green Bay Packers (9-4-1) are right on their heels. However, they would be the No. 7 seed in the NFC playoffs.
A lot could change depending on Saturday’s result. The bitter NFC North rivals played just two weeks ago, with the Packers holding off a late Bears drive to secure a 28-21 win at Lambeau Field.
The Packers fell to the Denver Broncos last week, and the Bears rolled past the Cleveland Browns.
Game bet
Total points UNDER 46.5 (-105)
Maldonado: This matchup compresses scoring. The Bears shorten games with the run. The Packers don’t play fast or reckless on the road, and both teams live in long drives, not quick strikes. That’s poison for high totals, especially for a Bears team that stalls in the red zone. Turnovers don’t automatically translate into points here either, as the Packers limit damage better than almost anyone. The number assumes pace and clean execution this matchup rarely produces.
Notable player props, bets
2:01
Can fantasy managers trust the Bears backfield?
Mike Clay discusses the potential usage of D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai vs. the Packers.
D’Andre Swift OVER 54.5 rushing yards (-113)
Bowen: Swift has rushed for 60 or more yards in three straight games, including the 63 he had versus the Packers in Week 14. Bet the over.
Kyle Monangai OVER 45.5 rushing yards (-115)
Moody: Monangai has cleared this line in three of his past five games, including a 57-yard effort against the Packers in Week 14. The seventh-round rookie has been effective when given rushing attempts, averaging 4.7 yards per carry this season. Swift’s limited practice participation isn’t out of the ordinary for Chicago, and even if he’s cleared for Saturday, Monangai is likely to play a significant role.
Solak: Forget about Micah Parsons. Second-year safety Evan Williams injured a knee on the very same play against the Denver Broncos and is likely out for this game. He’s the Packers’ best run defender at any position, a high, high impact player. Throw in the absence of Parsons and continued absence of defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt (on injured reserve since Thanksgiving) and the Packers’ run defense looks highly liable. With no Rome Odunze or Luther Burden III for the Bears, I expect a heavy reliance on the running game from Chicago. Swift and Monangai overs are live.
2:02
Should managers sit or start DJ Moore in Week 16?
Daniel Dopp breaks down DJ Moore’s “boom-bust” fantasy performance throughout the season and looks at whether he can be started against the Packers in fantasy Week 16.
Daily fantasy tips for DraftKings Captain Showdown
Bowen’s recommendations
Captain: Jordan Love ($16,200) threw for 234 yards and three touchdowns in the Week 14 game versus the Bears. Look for explosive-play concepts that target the Bears’ defensive tendencies.
Also in my lineup: Colston Loveland ($5,800). With receivers Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III both down for this game, Loveland should see an uptick in targets. The rookie can flex from the formation to draw matchup edges, and he will be targeted in scoring position.
Maldonado’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Josh Jacobs ($16,800) is the most reliable touch and touchdown source in this game. Green Bay is comfortable leaning on him in tight, low-scoring games, especially near the goal line. Jacobs has scored in 10 of 12 complete games played and handled 20 carries in the first meeting between these teams. Even with managed snaps, Jacobs’ red zone role gives him a ceiling.
Also in my lineup: Jordan Love ($10,800) will benefit if the Bears sell out to stop the run. In a game likely decided by field goals, Love’s modest rushing keeps him live without needing a shootout.
Moody’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Jayden Reed ($12,000) is a strong DFS value with Christian Watson dealing with an injury on a short week. Reed has seen 10 targets over his past two games and has produced 108 scrimmage yards. He now draws a favorable matchup against a Bears defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, setting him up for expanded usage and upside.
Also in my lineup: DJ Moore ($8,400) steps into the No. 1 receiver role for the Bears with Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III ruled out for Saturday’s game. Moore was in sync with Caleb Williams last week, finishing with 22.9 fantasy points, and he should remain heavily involved against the Packers. Prop bettors should also consider the over on Moore’s 45.5 receiving yards prop at -114.
Solak’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): DJ Moore ($12,600). I expect the field to fade Moore as a captain. He’s a very chalky pick given the Burden and Odunze injuries, and those players can come in underutilized in captain’s spots as the field looks to get unique. I’ll be building peculiar lineups with Moore at captain, leaving plenty of salary cap on the table, in an effort to still get the siloed WR production while having lineups that look different from the most traditional constructions.
Also in my lineup: Cole Kmet ($2,800). As the Bears have increasingly relied upon multi-TE sets even before their wide receiver injuries, Kmet has seen his snap count and route share increase. Of course, Loveland is the star and primary pass catcher. But Kmet will have enough snaps, certainly near the red zone, that a touchdown on a play-action fake (think the end of the Eagles game) is a decently likely outcome. Kmet is +350 to score despite having only two touchdowns on the season. Accordingly, he’s a better DFS dart throw than anytime TD bet.
Walder’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Josh Jacobs ($16,800). The angle I want to take on this game is a Packers blowout. With the Bears down both Odunze and Burden and having a defense reliant on turnovers, I think the Packers have a better chance of pulling away than they’re being given credit for. If they do, Jacobs surely will be a beneficiary in terms of workload and scoring opportunity.
Also in my lineup: Brandon McManus ($4,800). In this world where the Packers explode for huge points over Chicago, I’m envisioning a series of late field goals as Green Bay continues to have the ball but takes its foot off the gas late. That’s where McManus comes in, racking up the points for our lineup.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
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The Packers are 11-2 ATS against the Bears under Matt LaFleur, including 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) on the road.
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Six straight Packers road games have gone over the total.
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In Week 14, the Packers beat the Bears 28-21, just covering the -6.5 spread (over 44.5).
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The Packers are 0-3 ATS after a loss this season.
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The Bears are 9-3 ATS in their past 12 games.
