The time has come. In a series that everyone assumed would be one-sided, we have 48 minutes left to crown an NBA champion.
There are no surprises left, and every move has already been countered multiple times. That said, both the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers have a tracking stat that has been very correlated to their success, a metric for each that needs to be prioritized on Sunday night to get to the finish line.
Keys to NBA Finals Game 7 for Pacers and Thunder
For the first time since the 2016 Golden State Warriors blew a 3-1 series lead to LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers, we have an NBA Finals that is going the distance.
We knew after the Thunder evened the series in Game 4 that this was a very possible outcome. And now we get some of the best in the world playing in a game that will very much impact how their story is told for generations to come.
Home court means plenty in the #NBAFinals and we’ve seen it mean even more in this exact spot pic.twitter.com/a0upUKfzIk
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) June 14, 2025
So … who wins?
Odds are good that you have an opinion that you’ve been sticking with all series long and will continue to do so, no matter what I say. Either you think Oklahoma City is a dynasty waiting to happen, with a win being inevitable, or you believe in the team of destiny in Indiana that has zero quit in them.
I’m not here to sway your opinion. Rather, I’m here to make you a smarter fan. My job is to make you the sharpest basketball fan in the room in which you watch this season finale.
Let’s start with the home team. The Thunder have won each of the past two games in front of their home crowd by double digits after gift-wrapping Game 1 to the Pacers and have looked the part. The fan support is nice to have, but sorry if I’m not willing to rely on the volume of the arena as a difference-making factor in a game for the Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy.
Attack.
It sounds simple, but it’s a little less obvious in this 3-point era and can take on different definitions. When I mention it as a key predictor for the 2025 Thunder, I’m talking about getting in the paint.
Yes, I’m aware that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander can be an assassin from outside the paint and inside the 3-point line. He has a rare skill set, but Gilgeous-Alexander gets those shots up most nights.
What is tied to team success is when he is truly collapsing the Pacers’ defense (20.5 drives per game) with the help of Jalen Williams (12.6% more drives in this series than the first three), Alex Caruso, and company.
Thunder Paint Touches Per Game, NBA Finals
- In wins: 20.2
- In losses: 13.3
That number in defeats is alarmingly low. For context, Oklahoma City averaged 20.2 paint touches per game during the regular season and 22.4 through the first three rounds of the playoffs. Indiana has made it clear that its primary focus is to win the math game, and as such, is focusing on taking away those drive and kick opportunities.
Oklahoma City isn’t a great 3-point shooting team, but the looks the Thunder do take need to be generated from the inside out. Even if the volume from distance isn’t there, this Thunder team can score in a multitude of ways from inside the arc.
From big-to-big passing to Williams’ ability to create for himself and others off the dribble, Oklahoma City is uniquely positioned to score at all levels.
The Thunder just need to not take no for an answer and force the issue. You could say that they are shooting 39.8% from downtown at home and 30.9% on the road in this series because of their comfort with the setting. That might be a tiny part of it, but I prefer to believe that those splits are the result of drive pass quality.
- Home: 38.8% drive pass rate, 4.1% drive turnover rate
- Road: 37.8% drive pass rate, 5.5% drive turnover rate
The focus coming into this series on the Indiana side was, in most part, surrounding the offense. The Pacers’ defense has improved, but the driving narratives were about how the team’s strength would fare against what some considered a generational offense.
With fate hanging in the balance Sunday night, I think it’s Indiana’s defense that holds the key.
As mentioned, the Thunder aren’t a dead-eye shooting team. Heck, Isaiah Joe is a specialist who has largely been played off the court in this series, as Indiana has excelled at limiting the limited role that he fills. And they’ll have to keep doing it.
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In this series, the Thunder own a 65.3% effective field-goal percentage on shots coming off of zero dribbles. They’ve been able to generate high-percentage looks and thus force the Pacers to be near perfect on the other end — a near impossibility given the physical nature of their defense.
In losses this series, OKC’s eFG% in those spots sits at 50%. That’s a fine rate, but it’s still a significant decline. And with as much back and forth as we’ve seen over the past 2+ weeks, that’s all it takes.
I don’t think Indiana needs to be concerned with how Oklahoma City shoots. Variance is a fickle beast and can swing in any direction. What they can do, however, is limit the number of opportunities they have to run cold in the variance department.
The recent uptick in that chart is concerning and is something that I think Rick Carlisle needs to highlight leading into this decisive game. We seem to have avoided the health concerns that were stealing headlines entering Game 6, and that gives us the potential for an all-timer to wrap the 2025. When taking all of this into consideration and running the final projection set of the season, here is where I landed.
