As we’ve done ahead of each season the past several years, I’m predicting what the Pittsburgh Steelers’ 2025 individual stats will look like when the regular season comes to a January close. Of course, this is an impossible exercise with injuries ready to change these outlooks in a moment’s notice. But based on how the offense is built, historical numbers and what I’ve seen on tape, these are my reasonable expectations for the year.
Passing
| Player | Completions | Attempts | Yards | TDs | INTs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers (17 starts) | 342 | 538 | 3,691 | 24 | 9 |
| Mason Rudolph | 16 | 22 | 175 | 0 | 0 |
– I’ve gone back and forth on what Rodgers’ numbers could look like. Earlier this offseason in fun podcast discussions with Dave Bryan, I was a little bit lower on his attempts and passing yards. But digging into the numbers, Russell Wilson and Justin Fields combined for 3,588 yards last season. It’s hard to see Rodgers being under that number, and it’s likely Pittsburgh throws more than a season ago. Even knowing Arthur Smith’s run-heavy style, Fields won’t be rushing around the first six games to boost the run-game numbers.
– If anything, this is still a little too low for Rodgers. But I have a hard time believing he’ll throw for the 584 attempts he did a season ago. A 538-attempt season last year would’ve ranked him 11th in the NFL, which seems more reasonable. Consider that this is also believing he’ll play all 17 games; one reason why those attempts rank so high is many quarterbacks miss time throughout the year. Torn Achilles aside, Rodgers is a tough and durable quarterback who gutted out 17 starts a year ago. That leaves little for Mason Rudolph.
– I’ve been waiting for the Steelers to hit the 25-touchdown mark. It hasn’t happened post-Ben Roethlisberger. I’ll predict the team falls just shy again this year. These would be career lows in passing yards and touchdowns for Rodgers in non-injury seasons. But that doesn’t coincide with a bad year. Pittsburgh wants and needs to take more off his plate. If he’s putting up big numbers, chances are it’s because the running game is stalled and the team is playing catch-up far too often.
– I’ll also predict Rodgers is sacked 36 times, a little above his career sack rate percentage. He was taken down 40 times a season ago.
Rushing
| Player | Carries | Yards | YPC | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 218 | 972 | 4.5 | 7 |
| Kaleb Johnson | 167 | 773 | 4.6 | 6 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 55 | 224 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 23 | 101 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Jonnu Smith | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 1 |
– At first, I didn’t think Jaylen Warren would top 200 carries. But Arthur Smith is still going to run the ball a lot, and Warren had 120 a season ago despite being the 1B back and missing time due to injury. Over 17 games, this averages out to 12.8 carries per game. Last year, Najee Harris averaged 15.5. A fair number for Warren, who won’t be viewed as quite that level of bell cow.
– Johnson puts up respectable numbers. Healthier averages exist for all the running backs than the team had with Harris. Warren, Johnson and Gainwell are all more explosive runners, and this could be the best offensive line Pittsburgh’s had since the heyday of Maurkice Pouncey, David DeCastro and the gang.
– Jonnu Smith rounds out the group with three carries as an Arthur Smith wrinkle he’s used before with him. Together in Tennessee in 2019, Smith had four rushes. Pittsburgh messed with toss plays to him this camp, suggesting it’s an idea Smith will revisit.
– As a team, overall rushing attempts are down from a year ago and the above total of 466 would rank Pittsburgh around top 10. A drop from last year, but again, Fields and even Russell Wilson scrambled a lot more. Pittsburgh doesn’t have that element this season and will trust Rodgers to make plays from the pocket.
– For those scoring at home, between the running backs, the carry split looks like this:
Jaylen Warren: 49.5 percent
Kaleb Johnson: 38.0 percent
Kenneth Gainwell: 12.5 percent
Warren ends with a plurality but just shy of a majority. Some will put Johnson’s carries higher, but for a rookie who struggles in pass protection and is a limited receiver, playing time could be more limited than you think.
Receiving
| Player | Catches | Yards | YPC | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 72 | 1,006 | 14.0 | 7 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 52 | 535 | 10.3 | 4 |
| Calvin Austin III | 42 | 539 | 12.8 | 3 |
| Jonnu Smith | 39 | 432 | 11.1 | 3 |
| Jaylen Warren | 38 | 265 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Roman Wilson | 26 | 315 | 12.1 | 1 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 25 | 184 | 7.4 | 2 |
| Darnell Washington | 23 | 247 | 10.8 | 2 |
| Scotty Miller | 14 | 166 | 11.9 | 0 |
| Kaleb Johnson | 14 | 81 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Connor Heyward | 8 | 63 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Ben Skowronek | 5 | 33 | 6.6 | 0 |
– Keep in mind, I made all these numbers match. The receptions, yards and touchdowns all equal the quarterbacks above. Try it yourself (without having Aaron Rodgers throw for 4,500 yards) and it’s harder than you think.
– Metcalf is the clear No. 1 and the numbers reflect that. But he’s never been a high-volume receiver and that won’t change in this offense. His yards per catch drops a bit from a season ago, more slants in the offense will do that, but it’s still a strong campaign that again makes him a 1,000-yard receiver.
– From there, the numbers get chopped up. Welcome to the Arthur Smith offense. Pat Freiermuth has posted remarkably consistent numbers throughout his career but it’s hard to see the addition of TE Jonnu Smith, the most athletic pass-catcher in that tight end room, not cutting into Freiermuth’s numbers at least a little. A drop-off of about 10 catches and 100 yards is reasonable. He still finishes ahead of Smith in production. I don’t try to map out injuries too concretely, but it wouldn’t be surprising if Smith, 30 with a nagging summer knee injury and physical nature, misses a little time during the season. He’s a little more boom-bust. Freiermuth is a little more consistent.
– Austin’s production looks similar to last year. He benefits by entering the season as a clear No. 2 but is hurt by the deep tight end room and a healthy Roman Wilson. Young receivers don’t tend to put up big numbers with Wilson, and a 26/315/1 stat line would make for a solid sophomore season after a lost rookie year.
– I so wanted to give Gainwell more receptions than carries, and there will be a concerted effort to give Gainwell touches in the passing game. But unless Warren and Johnson simply miss no time, it’s hard to predict it in these stats. Maybe Gainwell finishes closer to 30 receptions, especially if there are other backfield injuries that expand his role.
– Washington still won’t catch a lot of passes in this system. But he should be a more consistent focus of the passing game, and he betters his 2024 numbers across the board.
– At some point this year, there will be a “Scotty Miller game” when here he steps in, makes plays and earns plenty of Aaron Rodgers praise. Book it.
Sacks
| Player | Sacks |
|---|---|
| T.J. Watt | 17.5 |
| Alex Highsmith | 9.0 |
| Cam Heyward | 7.0 |
| Nick Herbig | 4.5 |
| Keeanu Benton | 3.0 |
| Payton Wilson | 3.0 |
| Derrick Harmon | 2.5 |
| Patrick Queen | 2.5 |
| Yahya Black | 2.0 |
| Jalen Ramsey | 2.0 |
| Jack Sawyer | 1.5 |
| Juan Thornhill | 0.5 |
– In total, 55 sacks for the Steelers’ defense. A big uptick from last year’s total and arguably an optimistic one. Watt rebounds with excellent numbers that will be among the league-leaders if not in first place outright. Highsmith misses double-digits but had six sacks in 11 starts a year ago. It wouldn’t shock if he touched 10-plus. Heyward settles in with seven after recording eight last season. Perhaps a little high but I won’t doubt him after last year’s performance.
– Benton finally breaks out of his one-sack funk with three. That’s still not an ideal number. Expecting more inside linebacker blitzes and pressure this year. It’s why Wilson and Queen combine for 5.5 sacks after totaling one a season ago.
– Harmon’s 2.5 sacks sounds disappointing, and I get it. It’s not his or anyone’s target goal. But he’s missing at least the first week and potentially more with an MCL sprain. Getting back on that moving train during the season isn’t easy. In the Mike Tomlin era, rookie defensive linemen haven’t put up big sack numbers. Javon Hargrave had two. Stephon Tuitt, Keeanu Benton, Cam Heyward and Ziggy Hood only had 1. There’s a variety of reasons for all of it, Tuitt, Heyward, and Hood were blocked by others and Harmon will play once healthy, but 2.5 is a reasonable number for Harmon out of the gate. Yahya Black finishes close behind with two.
– Ramsey will rush plenty off the edge this season and picks up a pair of sacks. He has three over his past three seasons. And Thornhill picks up a half-sack in a year where the secondary should be more active in this category than a year ago.
Interceptions
| Player | INTs |
|---|---|
| Jalen Ramsey | 5 |
| Darius Slay | 2 |
| DeShon Elliott | 2 |
| Joey Porter Jr. | 2 |
| Brandin Echols | 1 |
| Juan Thornhill | 1 |
| Payton Wilson | 1 |
| Patrick Queen | 1 |
| Yahya Black | 1 |
– Ramsey paces the field and finishes with five interceptions, a career high. No one else breaks through in a big way. Slay picks two after being shut out during the regular season while Elliott records his first multi-interception season after putting up one four separate times. He’s focused on takeaways this offseason. Porter also grabs a couple, benefitting from new DBs Coach Gerald Alexander’s ball-first mentality.
– Black picks off a pass just because it’s fun to think about it happening. His length, or someone else getting a hand up, bats the ball and it lands in Black’s arms. Or gut.
– For those scoring at home, I have the Steelers’ offense scoring 40 touchdowns. Assume one additional touchdown on defense and/or special teams and 35 Chris Boswell field goals, and Pittsburgh scores 392 points this season. That’s an average of 23.1 points per game, a slight uptick from a year ago. In 2024, that would’ve ranked 13th league-wide.
