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HomeNFLHead-to-Head, Grades and Prediction for NFL Week 1

Head-to-Head, Grades and Prediction for NFL Week 1

Monday Night Football caps off Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season with a classic NFC North showdown. Two teams with new quarterbacks at the helm, fresh coaching philosophies, and plenty of questions to answer. The Minnesota Vikings travel to Chicago carrying momentum from last season’s sweep of the Bears, but this year brings entirely different challenges for both franchises.

Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings Preview

Date: Mon, Sep. 8, 2025

Game Time: 8:15 p.m. ET

Location: Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois

Predicted Weather at Kickoff: 70 degrees, 4 mph winds, 68% chance of rain

How to Watch: ESPN, Fubo TV

Bears vs Vikings Head-to-Head Record

This divisional rivalry spans seven decades, with the Vikings holding the all-time regular season series lead at 68-57-2. However, the Bears claimed the only postseason meeting between these teams, winning the 1994 wild card round matchup.

Minnesota swept Chicago during the 2024-25 campaign. The Vikings survived a furious Bears comeback to escape with a 30-27 overtime victory in their Week 12 meeting, then dominated in a 30-12 Week 15 Monday Night Football win.

Bears vs Vikings Grades

Below are the PFSN team and positional grades from the 2024-25 season for the highest-ranked returning players set to feature Monday night:

PFSN NFL OFF+

Minnesota Vikings (78.7, C+)

Chicago Bears (64.7, D)

PFSN NFL DEF+

Minnesota Vikings (83.3, B)

Chicago Bears (77.9, C+)

PFSN NFL Team OL+

Chicago Bears (74.21, C)

Minnesota Vikings (72.50, C-)

PFSN NFL ST+

Chicago Bears (83.1, B)

Minnesota Vikings (75.6, C)

PFSN NFL QB+

Caleb Williams, Bears (D+)

J.J. McCarthy, Vikings (N/A)

PFSN NFL RB+

Aaron Jones, Vikings (82.3, B-)

D’Andre Swift, Bears (74.6, C)

PFSN NFL WR+

Justin Jefferson, Vikings (85.6, B)

D.J. Moore, Bears (78.8, C+)

PFSN NFL TE+

Josh Oliver, Vikings (80.44, B-)

Cole Kmet, Bears (77.60, C+)

PFSN NFL Ind OL+

Brian O’Neill, Vikings (88.08, B+)

Darnell Wright, Bears (81.71, B-)

PFSN NFL EDGE+

Jonathan Greenard, Vikings (90.91, A-)

Montez Sweat, Bears (76.72, C)

PFSN NFL DT+

Gervon Dexter Sr., Bears (77.79, C+)

No Returning Vikings DL

PFSN NFL LB+

T.J. Edwards, Bears (84.33, B)

Blake Cashman (79.30, C+)

PFSN NFL CB+

Byron Murphy Jr. Vikings (82.03, B-)

Jaylon Johnson, Bears (79.87, C+)

PFSN NFL SAF+

Kevin Byard, Bears (83.03, B)

Harrison Smith, Vikings (81.35, B-)

Bears vs Vikings Prediction

Minnesota did everything possible to set McCarthy up for success. The Vikings improved an already solid offensive line by adding center Ryan Kelly and guard Will Fries in free agency and using a first-round pick on guard Donovan Jackson.

In theory, McCarthy should slide seamlessly into Head Coach Kevin O’Connell’s scheme that frequently targets the middle of the field, where McCarthy excelled in college. Plus, he has the ultimate safety net in superstar wide receiver Justin Jefferson.

However, first-year starting quarterbacks typically struggle early on, regardless of the talent around them. The Vikings offense will also be without Jordan Addison, who will serve the first game of a three-game suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse policy. Even if you believe in McCarthy’s long-term potential, expecting immediate success in Week 1 seems unrealistic.

On the other side, Williams enters his first game with new Head Coach Ben Johnson, who coordinated the Detroit Lions to three straight top-five finishes in points per game. Williams struggled through an inconsistent rookie year that showed flashes of brilliance but featured too many negative plays, including a league-leading number of sacks taken. Much of that stemmed from coaching issues that sometimes left Chicago’s offense looking dysfunctional.

Johnson was hired to bring stability to Chicago, but what form that takes remains unclear. While his Detroit offense derived from the Sean McVay system, Johnson doesn’t come from that coaching tree. He crafted an offense that maximized Jared Goff‘s strengths, but that might not be the same system that gets the best out of Williams. Regardless of the scheme, this represents a massive structural change for Williams, and building continuity could take time.

A matchup between two work-in-progress offenses suggests the defenses will hold the advantage, and that’s exactly what should happen Monday night. New Bears Defensive Coordinator Dennis Allen brings a man-heavy scheme that complements the skill sets of cornerbacks Jaylon Johnson and Tyrique Stevenson. Additionally, Addison’s suspension makes it easier to cheat safety help toward Jefferson.

The Vikings did manage to acquire Adam Thielen from the Carolina Panthers, but he’s not the separator he once was.

Meanwhile, Vikings Defensive Coordinator Brian Flores returns with his blitz-heavy, chaos-inducing defense that uses disguises and coverage rotations to create pressure and force turnovers. The losses of safety Cam Bynum and linebacker Pat Jones II may push this defense closer to the 2023 boom-or-bust version rather than the consistently dominant unit that finished second in the league in EPA/Play during 2024-25.

But an opponent with a new offensive system and a quarterback prone to taking sacks creates an environment where Minnesota’s defense should thrive. If the Vikings can lean on their running game and upgraded offensive line while mixing in some designed runs with McCarthy, their defense might generate enough plays to steal a close Week 1 victory.

Prediction: Vikings 17, Bears 13



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