The NFL news cycle never slows, and the NBA is doing what it can to emulate that. On a Sunday between NBA Finals games, we saw the first big domino fall, with the Orlando Magic acquiring Desmond Bane from the Memphis Grizzlies in exchange for Cole Anthony, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, a 2029 first-round pick swap, and first-round picks (16th overall this year, with unprotected selections in 2026, 2028, and 2030).
What does this mean for the future of the Magic and the upcoming draft? Here’s a look at that, in addition to what Kevin Durant’s new team, no matter who it is, will have to work with as the age curve continues to come into play.
Desmond Bane Traded to the Orlando Magic
Our job here is to evaluate the impact of Bane. Yes, the price of doing business was expensive, but Orlando is clearly looking to take advantage of a weakened Eastern Conference. It was the lesser conference prior to the injury of Jayson Tatum, and it is now clearly inferior and likely wide open for the upcoming season).
Bane is entering his age-27 season, coming off four straight years with a usage rate north of 23. We’ve seen him grow from something of a specialist (54.3% 3-point rate in 2021) to a well-rounded threat in all aspects (41.1% 3-point rate in 2025, with career highs in rebound percentage, field goal percentage, and assist-to-turnover ratio).
Talk about a sight for sore eyes in Orlando.
The Magic owned the second-best defense in the league this regular season, and that was with Jalen Suggs (2023 second-team All-Defense) missing 47 games. That’s great and shouldn’t be impacted by this move, but asking any team to win at a high level in this era with the 19th-highest three-point rate and 29th eFG% is too much.
Bane might not be a threat to take over games like a Kevin Durant type, but he’s an additive player on both sides of the ball who fits Orlando’s timeline perfectly (Franz Wagner is gearing up for his age-24 season and Paolo Banchero his age-22) and should have this city in the mix for home-court advantage in at least the first round this upcoming season.
Desmond Bane Trade Impact on 2025 NBA Mock Drafts
Courtesy of our handy-dandy NBA Mock Draft Simulator, you can assume GM responsibilities for any team you want and run through an entire draft in under a minute. You can also sit on the sidelines and run mock drafts without any input.
That’s exactly what I did this morning, and here’s what I got, with Memphis moving into the 16th spot previously occupied by Orlando.
1) Mavericks – Cooper Flagg
2) Spurs – Ace Bailey
3) 76ers – Dylan Harper
4) Hornets – Khaman Maluach
5) Jazz – VJ Edgecombe
6) Wizards – Jermaih Fears
7) Pelicans – Kasparas Jakucionis
8) Nets – Asa Newell
9) Raptors – Nolan Traore
10) Rockets – Derik Queen
11) Blazers – Collin Murray-Boyles
12) Bulls – Egor Demin
13) Hawks – Kon Knueppel
14) Spurs- Tre Johnson
15) Thunder – Jace Richardson
16) Grizzlies – Nique Clifford
17) Lakers – Rasheer Fleming (trade with MIN)
18) Wizards – Will Riley
19) Nets- Noah Penda
20) Heat – Noah Essengue
21) Jazz – Danny Wolf
22) Hawks – Carter Bryant
23) Pacers – Thomas Sober
24) Thunder – Liam McNeeley
25) Magic – Ryan Kalkbrenner
26) Nets – Chaz Lanier
27) Nets – Kam Jones
28) Celtics – Bogoljub Markovic
29) Suns – Ben Saraf
30) Clippers- Drake Powell
What To Expect From Aging Kevin Durant
Today’s athletes are less intimidated by Father Time than past generations, but that doesn’t mean the body clock no longer exists. Sure, we don’t see production cliffs like we used to, but understanding what an older star can and can’t do at previous rates is important when it comes to building a winner around him.
Durant is an outlier among outliers, but so is LeBron James, and their age curves through their age-36 seasons are somewhat similar.
As you can see, these two all-time greats haven’t felt the pressure of age much at all in these specific areas. Their shot diets remain pretty similar, and their involvement on the glass — an area where you’d think the aging process would be obvious — really hasn’t shifted in a significant way.
Holding Durant to James’ loft standards is something he’s earned, so why not take a look at how LeBron’s next four seasons (age-wise, the four sitting ahead of KD) have looked, understanding that he’s the gold standard and that any changes in Durant’s profile could be even more significant.
Interesting — even The King has needed some help. He’s needed more creation on the part of his teammates when it comes to setting up his triples, something that I think is safe to project onto Durant, given that his jump shot has always been more valuable to his path to scoring than James’.
I found it interesting that the 2-point assist rates rarely flinched. That implies James is just as good at going downhill and getting his own looks as always — a must-have for Durant and his borderline unguardable pull-up jumper.
The first chart is where I get nervous. Will Durant commit to threatening defenses closer to the rim the way James has? Will any team that acquires his services have enough supporting pieces to make them truly competitive, understanding that Durant’s impact on the box score in terms of plus-minus could trend in the wrong direction?
The Miami Heat, San Antonio Spurs, and Houston Rockets are considered the top threats to land Durant, but there are three to five more teams believed to be in true contention to land the future Hall of Famer. All those profiles look different, and that is part of what makes the pursuit of Durant interesting.
Who would be best suited to add Durant to the mix? The answer largely depends on the package sent to Phoenix, but without that knowledge, we can evaluate what those top three franchises put on paper in 2024.
Based on the charts above and how we project Durant to age, the Spurs feel like the best fit, with the Rockets nipping at their heels. In a perfect world, we want Durant to land on a team with an already stable defense to maximize his strengths at the other end; a team that can share the ball at a high level; and one that could use help in pull-up efficiency — understanding how valuable that is, given that it is what most defenses in today’s game are willing to give up.
Are any of these teams a perfect fit? Of course not. The fit is only going to get worse as they part with some key pieces, but if we are trying to pigeonhole a team with defensive upside that is capable of moving the ball to set up optimal looks, the Spurs are the winner (that defensive rating is accurate but also misleading due to the injury to Victor Wembanyama).
Only 26 points stand between Kevin Durant and joining ELITE company in the 30K club
Catch some of KD’s BEST buckets ahead of the @Suns‘ showdown with Memphis tonight at 10pm ET on TNT! pic.twitter.com/yRzRJRjteB
— NBA on TNT (@NBAonTNT) February 12, 2025
Durant is past his prime, and he can still be a key member of a title team. Both things can be true, and until we have proof that he’s hit some sort of wall, the team that lands him this summer will elevate across all projection models.
For the record, if he’s a Spur, I believe that means San Antonio views its championship window as open. If that’s the case, they are optimistic Wembanyama will be his game-changing self in short order. Should that happen, we might be looking at the three-seed in the Western Conference.
