Week 2 in fantasy football is where overreactions meet reality. Running back roles are already shifting, and usage trends — targets, red-zone snaps, and pass-pro trust — matter more than box scores. We’re weighing matchups, game scripts, and sustainability to separate one-week noise from true signal. Here’s how I’m approaching the backs you’re debating this week.
Aaron Jones Sr. (vs. Falcons)
Beauty is very much in the eye of the beholder.
On one hand, Aaron Jones’ usage in the passing game during J.J. McCarthy’s NFL debut was borderline special. His three targets won’t jump off the screen at you, but that’s a 15% share, and he was even more impactful in that regard than the box score suggests.
His touchdown came on a pass that traveled 25 yards in the air, the longest target by a running back for the week. That alone is an encouraging sign when it comes to what Kevin O’Connell believes is possible with this unit, but don’t forget that he caused a 42-yard DPI penalty earlier in the game.
Sure, he averaged under three yards per carry against the Bears, but the upside stands to be rare if his route-running savvy is leveraged on a consistent basis like it was Monday.
Former UTEP and Burges High School football star Aaron Jones scored his first touchdown of the 2025 season and followed it up with his signature ‘915’ celebration. pic.twitter.com/ssJQD2LxLD
— Sam Guzman (@SamGuzmanTV) September 9, 2025
On the other hand, the floor could easily fall out. Jordan Mason nearly doubled him in rush attempts (15-8), clearly had more juice, and handled every red zone snap. As exciting as the big plays in the pass game were, the meat-and-potatoes of holding weekly value as a running back were missing.
The Falcons had the best after-contact defense in Week 1, which has me thinking that Minnesota will again struggle to run the ball. Your willingness to flex Jones this week sits with your willingness to believe his outlier targets are sustainable.
This situation, for me, is identical to the one in Seattle. I have the incumbent ranked slightly higher, but neither is within my top 25 at the position, and both favor stable receivers if given the choice.
Alvin Kamara (vs. 49ers)
You’re going to have a hard time convincing me that Alvin Kamara makes it through all of 2025 as a locked-in fantasy starter.
His 18-yard touchdown run early in the second quarter was impressive and cost me my “will not score” bets, but I’d make them again. Outside of that Herculean effort, he had 12 touches for 39 yards.
The versatility is a nice floor elevator, but where is the ceiling going to come from? Scoring opportunities are going to be few and far between, and that’s before I mentioned that Kendre Miller got the first carry of New Orleans’ second drive last week.
Kamara was on my do-not-draft list, so I don’t have a great feel for what offers look like around him (check out our trade tool for help in that regard), but if you can recoup 90% of what you spent on draft day, I’d take that offer to the bank.
Ashton Jeanty (vs. Chargers)
There is something to be said for the rookie jitters, but that’s not what Week 1 was for the Raiders.
They just lack high-end talent around their two star players, and that was abundantly clear.
Against the Patriots, a defense that we are lukewarm on at best, 115.8% of Jeanty’s rushing yards came after contact.
That’s not a typo.
The touchdown showcased his ability to run hard and through arm tackles, but maybe we work a little harder to get him into space? You know, give him a chance to succeed? Please?
We believe him to be a generational talent, yet he failed to gain yardage on eight of his 19 carries on Sunday. That 42.1% clip ranked him 660th of 662 RBs with at least that much work in a game since 2020.
That’s not a Jeanty problem, but it will be a problem for Jeanty managers if it doesn’t get cleared up sooner rather than later.
The Chargers allowed Chiefs not named Mahomes to pick up just 41 yards on 11 carries last week and have had plenty of time to build out a game plan that exploits Las Vegas’ weaknesses.
I’m not overly optimistic that we get any sort of breakout performance this week, but his featured role is safe, and his talent is undeniable. That makes him an easy start, even if the house around him is at risk of burning down.
Austin Ekeler (at Packers)
Austin Ekeler ran 19 of Washington’s 31 running back routes against the Giants, and that sort of feels like his niche in this offense, especially if this version of Deebo Samuel sticks.
That exact role can be streamable in times of desperation, but the fact that Jeremy McNichols accounted for their two RB red zone routes run is concerning. Ekeler caught all of his targets, but a game in which 80% of their offensive snaps come with a lead isn’t optimal.
Ekeler’s impact in the fantasy space, outside of a content contributor, is that of an annoyance to Bill Crosby-Merritt managers. I’d love to be more optimistic about his potential to sneak into the flex conversation, but I just don’t see it happening on a team this good.
If Ekeler is currently on your waiver wire, I’m not pouncing. My interest may increase when we approach the bye week season, but not a moment sooner.
Bhayshul Tuten (at Bengals)
The idea of Bhayshul Tuten was never that of a September superhero, it was that of a winter warrior.
That train of thought remains the same for Jaydon Blue in Dallas.
He got a little bit of red zone work in Week 1, but that was more the result of Travis Etienne being gassed after a 71-yard gain. Again akin to the Cowboys, Travis Etienne followed the Javonte Williams path and dominated a backfield we believed to be murky.
Now that I talk this through, I think that Week 1 should be viewed as a blessing for those with Tuten rostered. There is now nothing pushing you to consider taking on significant risk and playing him early in the season, and Etienne is getting a lot of mileage on his tires.
You wouldn’t throw out your tomato plant if it didn’t grow in the first three days you had it, would you? You’d give it the growing season, hoping that your investment pans out with time, right?
Tomato Tuten should remain stashed in all formats as we wait for Liam Coen to water the plant he hand-picked.
Bijan Robinson (at Vikings)
The beauty in these elite talents is that one touch can impact your box score more than a dozen ineffective ones.
Bijan Robinson was the first player to score on Sunday with a 50-yard catch-and-run, making his Week 1 an effective one even if none of his 12 carries gained more than six yards in what we believed to be a plus-matchup.
Better days are ahead in terms of consistency, that much we know. The fact that he was able to return top-10 value at the position on what will likely be his worst rushing performance of the year means you dodged a bullet.
Robinson was my 1.01 this summer, and I feel even better about that assertion now.
The Vikings are a big, bad bully when it comes to their style of play. They blitz to set up the blitz and then blitz some more. We’ve all seen this style work in various competitive atmospheres – the most aggressive card player can control the table, and NBA teams that lean most into launching triples have an unmatched ceiling.
But what happens when the opponent has a counterpunch that hits harder than the pressing strategy?
Nothing good for the defense, that’s what.
During his first two seasons, Robinson gained yardage on 84.9% of carries against loaded boxes (qualified RB average: 77.7%) and ripped off gains of 5+ yards 30.2% of the time. You’re never benching Atlanta’s alpha male, and I think he has every chance to allow the Dirty Birds to dictate this game on the road under the bright lights of Sunday Night Football.
Braelon Allen (vs. Bills)
As draft season wore on, we talked ourselves into this Jets backfield being a committee and that seemed to be the plan.
Early rush splits:
- Breece Hall: 6 carries, 40 yards
- Justin Fields: 4 carries, 28 yards
- Braelon Allen: 4 carries, 9 yards, TD
- Isaiah Davis: 1 carry, 3 yards
New York was leaning in his favor for the short-yardage work, and that’s what we wanted to see, but we were expecting more.
When all was said and done, he played just 19 snaps (30.6% share) and, given the duality of Fields, that’s not nearly enough to get him into the flex conversation. Add in the fact that Hall showed the promise that made him a foundational dynasty piece not long ago, and the ship may have sailed on Allen’s standalone value.
Maybe Hall falls flat with time, but his 107 rushing yards on Sunday bought him some time. This matchup doesn’t scare me, and, to be honest, neither do the next three (Buccaneers, Dolphins, and Cowboys). This is Hall’s backfield to control, and I fully expect him to hold serve through the first half of the season at the very least.
Handcuff running backs have value, and Allen is that, but I’d very much caution against the thought that you have flex depth with him as long as Hall is active.
Breece Hall (vs. Bills)
On Sunday, Breece Hall gained more yards after contact than the NFL average on 84.2% of his rush attempts (career rate: 63.3%), showing a level of burst that we thought we might get from Braelon Allen in a committee situation.
It was good to see, and enough for me to bump him back into the lineup lock section of my ranks.
How do you see this game playing out?
Hall produced 169 yards on 23 touches in the first meeting with the Bills last season, a game that was decided by a field goal. The second meeting was a 26-point blowout and saw Hall touch the ball just 11 times (6.3 PPR points).
Breece Hall looks like 2022 Breece pic.twitter.com/IaSb2Y9cOT
— NYJ MIKE (@NyjMike) September 8, 2025
The longer the Jets can keep this thing competitive, the better the chances are of Hall cracking the top 10 at the position. There is a floor to consider here, given the spread and the potential for Justin Fields to do things himself on the ground game, but I’m taking the glass-half-full approach and am comfortable in labeling him as a stable RB2 in all formats.
Brian Robinson Jr. (at Saints)
In his debut with the 49ers, Brian Robinson Jr. established himself as the clear RB2 in this offense. Still, like so many before him, he was zero threat to the usage of even a reportedly semi-hobbled Christian McCaffrey.
If you’re just scanning through box scores, 10 touches for B-Rob might seem like a player with standalone value potential. But given that McCaffrey handled 31 touches, Robinson’s involvement was pretty clearly viewed as a way to get CMC a breather, not as a way to plan to change the pace of the offense.
There’s value in the role of Robinson, especially if you believe in the dark cloud hanging over San Francisco with their skill position players dropping like flies. If I roster Robinson, I’m viewing Week 1 as a net win: any temptation to consider him as a flex play has vanished.
Bucky Irving (at Texans)
The Bucs elected to get cute with their offensive line ahead of kickoff, inserting Michael Jordan as a starter at guard and shuffling a few other pieces around.
Was that the reason that Bucky Irving, maybe one of the five most electrifying backs in this game, averaged just 2.6 yards per carry?
They get a tough test against a stout Texans defense this week, but I’m cautiously optimistic that the line looks better in Week 2.
Like some of his other friends in the top two tiers of the fantasy RB hierarchy, Irving was able to save the day as a pass catcher, extending for the pylon after a Baker Mayfield dump-off pass that only he can find a way to get into the end zone.
You’ll notice a theme with the RB1s that couldn’t find a groove on the ground in Week 1: I’m not the least bit concerned.
Cam Skattebo (at Cowboys)
This is a prime example of the impact of expectations.
Did you draft Cam Skattebo with the thought that you’d have New York’s bellcow by midseason?
If so, you’re probably underwhelmed. There was no room cleared for Giant running backs against Washington on Sunday as the trio picked up just 30 yards on 15 carries.
Did you draft Cam Skattebo with the thought that you had a handcuff that might have value if the lead role falls into his lap?
If so, you’re fine with the ugly Week 1 from this offense. Russell Wilson didn’t exactly get a vote of confidence immediately following the loss, but his leash appears to be short and the moment they close that chapter, movement toward the 2025 draft class feels inevitable (Skattebo: 2025 fourth-round selection).
Skattebo played seven snaps on Sunday, and that trailed Devin Singletary. That’s not ideal, but if you were pulling the ripcord this fast, you made a mistake at the draft.
Chase Brown (vs. Jaguars)
The Bengals’ underachieving in early September is becoming an odd trend, and Chase Brown was unable to avoid it last week against the Browns (Week 1: RB22).
Don’t care.
The Bengals have more than enough equity built up in the fantasy space to excuse a single bad week against an above-average defense that they share a division with.
His four best performances during his breakout 2024 season came in Cincinnati victories, and with the home team favored by 3.5 points, the wise guys are expecting a W in this spot (as am I!).
I was pitching Brown as a fringe RB1 this summer, and I think he’s better than that this week (RB7). We may look back in four months and realize that his worst game of the season came at the best time: Week 1.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. (at Packers)
Chris Rodriguez Jr. was a healthy scratch last weekend against the Giants, and while I don’t expect that to be the case most weeks, it speaks to how the team views him.
Following the Brian Robinson trade, there was speculation that Rodriguez, a 25-year-old who has averaged 4.9 yards per carry on his 86 attempts as a pro, could work his way into a competition with Bill Corsky-Merritt for the two-down role.
That’s pretty clearly something we don’t have to sweat right now, and that means C-Rod doesn’t need to be rostered in any format.
Christian McCaffrey (at Saints)
I don’t know about you, but Christian McCaffrey’s calf looked like the healthiest calf on planet earth last Sunday after 48 hours of consistent speculation about what the star would bring to the table for San Francisco’s opener.
Now, he’s the only 49er without health concerns, or so it seems.
Last week was CMC’s third career game with 20+ carries and 10+ targets, and it’s not crazy to think he could add to that total in this spot.
The Saints allowed 2.15 yards per carry to opposing running backs last season, a poor mark that reflects a lack of improvement after finishing bottom-5 in that metric a year ago.
They might prevent McCaffrey from reaching 30 touches this week by letting the end zone get in the way.
We said it last week, I’ll say it next week, and likely until he hangs them up: if you’re brave enough to draft McCaffrey, you have the stones to play him anytime he graces the field, no matter the number of red flags.
Chuba Hubbard (at Cardinals)
Chuba Hubbard finished Week 1 as the eighth-highest scoring running back, a stat line that was inflated by a 27-yard touchdown grab that is difficult to count on (54.2% of his production for the week).
That said, he remains a consistent source of volume, and by holding a 40-22 snap edge over Rico Dowdle in their first game as teammates, I think we can count on another high usage, low excitement season from Carolina’s bellcow.
Eat your vegetables and start Hubbard as your RB2.
D’Andre Swift (at Lions)
D’Andre Swift was about as involved as we could have asked for on Monday night (20 touches), and I expect that to be sustained as Ben Johnson works his magic to build an efficient offense.
I worry that none of those touches gained more than 13 yards, and that we could well see that be a consistent issue as well.
Johnson’s quick strike attack is mathematically sound, but it’s logistically elite when paired with the talent in Detroit. Keep the system and change the pieces, and the results will change, right?
The Houston Rockets have based their offense on what worked for the peak Golden State Warriors, and while they have their moments, they lack Stephen Curry, so their ceiling isn’t the same.
The lead back in an offense that I think clears 20 points this week has a low-end RB2 floor in my ranks, and that is where I’ve penciled in Swift (along with Alvin Kamara and Javonte Williams as a point of reference). The Lions were gashed by the Packers last week, but they did cough up just 0.58 yards per carry before first contact to Josh Jacobs, and if they can do that to Swift, his final stat line could be underwhelming despite the safe volume.
David Montgomery (vs. Bears)
Detroit running backs simply had nowhere to go on Sunday, and with the game trending away from them, the Packers were able to pin their ears back.
That situation didn’t present itself last season, and while I don’t think it’s going to be the status quo in 2025, it’s hard not to be at least a little concerned with it happening in Week 1.
As a collective, Lion RBs picked up 3.6 yards per carry before contact when running at Micah Parsons and company. That’s never going to let a semi-specialist like David Montgomery return value.
I am intrigued by him catching at least three balls in six straight regular season games while maintaining the red zone role, but we are going to need proof that this offense has the same type of upside it had under Ben Johnson’s leadership.
The recent spike in versatility has me keeping him ranked as a back-end RB2 in what I expect to be a bounce-back spot. If this week resembles last week’s, even in a softer matchup, we can circle back. But for now, Montgomery has built too much equity for us to abandon after a single down week.
De’Von Achane (vs. Patriots)
My goodness, did you get bailed out if you started De’Von Achane last week.
The Dolphins were getting ready to tap out against the Colts, but they salvaged a shred of integrity by avoiding a shutout, and Achane was the beneficiary.
Don’t get me wrong, he worked hard to get into the end zone on that fourth-down play, and he’s an ultra-gifted player, but the environment is nearing toxic, and you can only extract so much value from situations like that.
De’Von Achane’s outrageous usage got lost in #Dolphins Week 1 faceplant.
Played 33-of-37 snaps with Tua Tagovailoa. Ran 20 routes on 27 dropbacks. This after handling 203 carries plus 78 targets last year.
MIA clearly doesn’t think he’s “too small”.pic.twitter.com/lbJkfO2zbD
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) September 11, 2025
Tua Tagovailoa picked apart the Patriots last November (317 yards and four touchdowns), a performance that Achane helped make possible with two touchdowns. This feels like ancient history at this point, and with New England allowing the second-fewest yards per carry before contact to running backs in Week 1, how confident can you be in Achane returning RB1 value again?
He’s my RB15 this week, and that’s more of a nod to his raw abilities than anything my numbers like about the situation he’s a part of.
Derrick Henry (vs. Browns)
I was taught very young in my research career that there is only one rule to fully accept: there is always an exception to every rule.
You know Derrick Henry is an all-timer bc even the nerds have abandoned the usual carries/age arguments when it comes to him. Like everyone just acknowledges he isn’t a real person.
— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) September 8, 2025
She’s not wrong, and I love the idea of spending the next four months crafting ultra-unique stats to try to contextualize what he continues to do.
If you extend Henry’s per-game averages from his six games over a full 17-game regular season:
- 2,511 rushing yards (406 more than the NFL record)
- 23 rush TDs
The term #BuiltDifferent doesn’t even really begin to describe King Henry. He came up a few carries shy of those arbitrary thresholds last January when the Browns came to Baltimore (20 totes for 138 yards and two scores), but that doesn’t matter. He’s close to inevitable when you think the Ravens are going to be playing in a favorable or neutral script.
That’s going to be the case most weeks, and as a monster favorite this week, there’s little reason to think that won’t be the case on Sunday.
Dylan Sampson (at Ravens)
There were three players last season who had a game with at least eight carries and eight catches (Kenneth Walker, Chase Brown, and De’Von Achane). It’s a hard thing to do, and Sampson does it in his first start while a member of a bad team in an unclear role.
His RB9 finish last week against the Bengals was impressive and deserves waiver wire attention, but I’d caution against thinking that you’ve stumbled upon something special. Cleveland drafted Quinshon Judkins ahead of him for a reason, and all reports are that he will debut this week.
Sampson’s production last week will result in him remaining involved, which I’m confident in. But as a part of a team that is going to have an implied total around 20 points regularly, you need to be more than “involved” to have my interest every week.
Jerome Ford is about as average as it gets, and the Browns gave him more snaps and extended him for more routes to open the season than Sampson. There’s a good chance we just saw his best game of the season: Be careful not to overreact to the first impression.
Isaac Guerendo (at Saints)
Isaac Guerendo missed time in August with a shoulder injury, but he returned to practice in the middle of the month, shortly before the team traded for Brian Robinson Jr.
Guerendo didn’t see the field for a single snap in Week 1 despite the pregame concerns surrounding Christian McCaffrey, a clear indicator that he’s more of a Robinson handcuff than a McCaffrey handcuff.
There are too many options with single-play upside on most waiver wires to waste an active roster spot on Guerendo right now. If McCaffrey were to go down, he’d be worthy of an add, but you don’t need to get ahead of a very specific situation.
Isiah Pacheco (vs. Eagles)
In my opinion, the eye-test was passed from a physical sense when it comes to Isiah Pacheco in the season opener; the problem was that we only got seven touches to base that on.
I thought he hit the holes hard and ran in a unique style. That’s great to see after the disaster that was 2024, but Kareem Hunt converted a pair of fourth downs (one via the rush and another via reception) in the second quarter and led this backfield in red zone snaps.
Now, it’s worth noting that the integrity of the offensive plan was compromised with Rice suspended and Xavier Worthy out after just three snaps. But it’s pretty clear that the lead role Pacheco held 12 months ago, pre-injury, is no longer accessible to him.
Of course, September roles aren’t forever. Maybe Pacheco gets a little more responsibility each week, and he will peak at the right time for us. I’m hopeful that will be the case and still believe there’s a good chance it happens.
In the scope of Week 2, I can’t rank him as a starter. What evidence do I have that he’s going to clear 12 touches in a difficult matchup? I still prefer him to Hunt, but until the volume concerns OR the red zone snap rates change, there are simply more paths to failure than to success right now, and that’s not a risk you have to take in Week 2.
One thing I’m not doing is moving off of Pacheco. I thought the public undervalued him during draft season, and a dud in the opener has him trending in the opposite direction. Sit tight while he sits for you; better times are ahead.
J.K. Dobbins (at Colts)
Those who do not learn from the past are doomed to repeat it.
It’s rare in fantasy sports that we get a chance to right a wrong, but it’s here. It’s staring you right in the face, and all you have to do is prove that you were paying attention 12 months ago.
That’s it!
After two weeks last season, J.K. Dobbins was the fourth most valuable running back in the land. He was your favorite running back’s favorite running back. He averaged more points per game than eventual stars Chase Brown and Bucky Irving had totaled together.
It was fun, until it wasn’t. After the hot start, he had his moments, but health issues popped up, and he was a fringe top-20 producer on a per-game basis the rest of the way.
So yeah, I’ll take a running back that I project to finish as a top-20 player this season for Dobbins in a one-for-one deal and not think twice about it.
The 19-yard touchdown from last week blinds us from the fact that he had nine totes for 26 yards before and six for 18 after. RJ Harvey was brought in to lead a backfield for a team with playoff expectations, and I can’t imagine that’s changed.
This matchup doesn’t scare me, and you can squeeze another game out of the orange that is Dobbins if you’d like, but what if he falls flat? What if Harvey hits another spike play and never looks back on his way to being 2024’s Bucky Irving?
I’m moving Dobbins instead of playing a game of chicken with his value.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (at Packers)
In his NFL debut, Bill Crosky-Merritt finished with 14.2 fantasy points. He generated excitement with an early touchdown and finished the game with a 42-yard splash play, with the Giants selling out from all angles.
The team finished the week with our highest Elusive Rating and cashed in on some of the positive momentum from the preseason. But I’m in no hurry to get him into lineups against a Packers defense that looked better than projected against the Lions.
Crosky-Merritt earned just one target, and he failed to catch it, a trend that carries over from his extensive collegiate career (93.3% of his touches in college came on the ground). In theory, the game script should have favored a two-down back like this, but he finished with a 31.3% carry share.
Given his usage, the production you got on Sunday was a best-case scenario. That was helpful in Week 1, but it means nothing for his status in Week 2, especially when you adjust expectations based on the opponent.
He’s worthy of flex consideration (currently my RB26). He is my favorite of the backs in Washington. Still, if we are talking about a flex decision, I’m more likely to target receivers that I give a higher ceiling to (teammates Deebo Samuel is one example, and Hollywood Brown is another, with Xavier Worthy sidelined).
Jahmyr Gibbs (vs. Bears)
NFL records get broken from time to time, and usually, it’s a positive thing for a fantasy first-rounder.
“The fewest yards in NFL history for a player catching 10+ passes in a game”
That’s an interesting way to start the post-Ben Johnson era.
On the one hand, Jared Goff was given the green light to utilize the short passing game as a supplement to the ground game. On the other hand, this team couldn’t open anything resembling a hole in the same zip code of the line of scrimmage (100% of his rushing yards came after contact on Sunday, 2024: 59.1%).
In both games against the Bears last season, Gibbs totaled over 100 yards from scrimmage, had a 20+ yard touch, and earned at least four targets. To say I currently have zero concerns surrounding him would be an understatement, and you should be operating with just as much confidence as you had when you drafted Gibbs with your first pick.
If things don’t look better this week, then I’ll give you the deep dive that you deserve. But this offense has built up enough equity to require at least eight quarters of struggles before we question the future.
James Conner (vs. Panthers)
Trey Benson came in to handle the third drive last weekend, but James Conner continued to be the featured Arizona back, and in this matchup, that gives him the potential to be a top-12 producer.
His 12 carries may have gained just 39 yards against the Saints, but he caught all four of his targets, one of which was a well-designed play-action shovel pass. I expect we will get some DFS ownership reprieve due to the limited efficiency and the highlight 51-yard run by Benson, and if that proves accurate, you can find me on Conner Island this weekend.
Carolina allowed 4.9 yards per carry after contact to Jaguar running backs last week. One big carry skewed that, but if that’s going to happen again, Conner is still the percentage play to be the beneficiary (the Panthers were 11th worst in this regard last season, so it’s not as if Week 1 was some shocking result).
Conner impressed with a 21-carry, 122-yard, 1-TD performance against the Rams in Week 2 last season, and I don’t think that’s far from what we get in the late slate on Sunday.
James Cook (at Jets)
James Cook finished as RB4 in Week 1, riding the coattails of Josh Allen in an instant classic. His evening was highlighted by a 51-yard catch-and-run, a splash play that is always a possibility when tethered to this offense.
His other 17 touches combined for 51 yards, but I’m not sweating the lack of efficiency. After refusing to call Cook’s number inside the 10-yard line (19 carries through his first two seasons), he’s totaled 30 such carries since.
We aren’t talking about a player who is elite in any one category, but checks every box needed to sustain strong value consistently.
- Scoring role
- Versatility
- Potent offense
- Big-play ability
Cook has produced 20.8% over expectations in his past two games against the Jets, with 46.9% of his carries in those contests gaining 5+ yards. I’m buying more into his past success in this spot than New York’s strong showing against Pittsburgh’s shaky run game in Week 1 (-0.11 yards allowed per carry before contact to RBs).
Javonte Williams (vs. Giants)
I’m happy for you if you started Javonte Williams for his second multi-rush TD game of his career. I really am.
I told my wife to bench him and have a sore back from sleeping on the couch for the past few nights after she lost her Week 1 matchup by six points.
But I’m happy for YOU and that’s what matters.
I’m not sold that this was the most predictive of performances, but it was at least a data point. Jalen Carter getting tossed before playing a snap certainly helped everything tied to this Dallas offense, and Miles Sanders, shortly after a vintage big run, coughing up the ball in the red zone, was good to see when it comes to job security.
That said, we are now north of 1,400 days since the last time Williams had a rush gain of more than 21 yards, and while the fantasy point total was nice to see on Thursday night, did you see anything in the way of juice?
It’s a single game, but against a defense forced to scramble six seconds into the contest, Williams averaged just 2.13 yards per carry after contact, a 10.5% dip from the failure that was 2024. He ran 27 routes against the Eagles (his most since the 2022 season opener), and that is, theoretically, a path to PPR value. But Dak Prescott was operating on time with everything, and Williams finished with 10 receiving yards.
Who scores the first TD for the Cowboys against the Giants?
It was Javonte Williams to open up Week 1pic.twitter.com/TaND25ogbI
— Tom Downey (@WhatGoingDowney) September 11, 2025
My opinion of Williams hasn’t changed: he’s a volume play until he’s not. I don’t love the per-touch upside in this specific matchup, but given that Jaydon Blue was a healthy scratch on Thursday night, it stands to project Williams for another 18-ish touches in a competitive atmosphere.
I’m not excited about ranking him as a low-end RB2 and penciling him into my wife’s lineup, but that’s where we are.
If this goes sideways (and it could, as this New York front is no joke), I will be seeking couch recommendations on KyleSoppePFN on X. Our current setup just isn’t conducive to writing this article and being wrong on Williams too many more times.
Jaydon Blue (vs. Giants)
Jaydon Blue was a healthy scratch on Thursday night, and that was a bummer, but it realistically shouldn’t change anything. You were playing the long game when you drafted him, and there was no real world in which you were going to consider playing him during this first month with all 32 teams in play.
Lines were instantly drawn to De’Von being a healthy scratch 24 months ago and owning elite upside by… well, Week 3 (233 yards and four scores against the Broncos). It’s probably a touch optimistic to think we are going to get that, but the larger point remains – you’re not wrong for drafting Blue.
At least not yet. You might be. But isn’t that what your bench is for? The idea of stashing Blue is just as strategically sound today as it was seven days ago. Stay the course and see where this ride goes.
Jaylen Warren (vs. Seahawks)
Kaleb Johnson’s performance as a de facto zero in the season opener allowed Jaylen Warren to assume a role that aligns with what we’ve come to expect from him.
- 11 carries for 37 yards
- 2 catches for 22 yards, TD
It should be no surprise that this team is going to put the ball in Aaron Rodgers’ hands, and with that, the carry count is never going to overwhelm. That said, a Rodgers-led offense can get into scoring position, and Warren stands to benefit from that reward.
Against the Jets, he recorded five red zone touches for just the third time in his career. We are only 60 minutes into the 2025 season for Pittsburgh, but it would appear that Rodgers trusts Warren, and that’s enough for me to consider him as a low-end PPR flex.
Kenneth Gainwell was the first Steeler to get a carry last week, and while he’s going to continue to be a pain, he doesn’t profile as a real threat to take over lead duties.
Jerome Ford (at Ravens)
Jerome Ford was brought back to Cleveland on a cheap deal this summer before the team went out and spent draft capital on a pair of running backs.
The league was telling us that it was done betting on him, and that was proven accurate in Week 1 against the Bengals (seven touches for five yards). Dylan Sampson showcased an impressive skill set in his debut, and with rumors swirling about Quinshon Judkins being active this weekend, Ford’s time as a viable roster filler is trending in the wrong direction.
He failed to capitalize on a pair of goal-line carries before Raheim Sanders cashed in, something that might prove to be the death knell.
Thanks to the lack of clarity in this backfield and Ford leading the way in snaps last week, I’d hang onto him through this week, but I’m admittedly doing it with next to nothing in the way of expectations.
Joe Mixon (vs. Buccaneers)
Joe Mixon battled an ankle injury throughout the summer, and considering he has missed three games in two of the past three seasons, not to mention that he has north of 2,100 NFL touches, he will be tough to trust in any capacity in the short term. The team announced on Aug. 25 that their starting back had been transferred to the reserve/non-football injury list, which rules him out for at least the first four games of this season.
The 29-year-old has averaged more than 4.1 yards per catch just once in his career, making him more of a volume-based fantasy asset than one that can hit your lineup with limited work. With over 1,200 scrimmage yards in four straight seasons, Mixon stands to be a weekly option, but you’re playing the long game.
Houston goes on bye in Week 6 and has some difficult matchups sprinkled in their schedule over the first two months. But if we get a bellcow version of Mixon as winter nears, he could be a popular name on rosters playing for fantasy glory (Week 15-16, home games against the Cardinals and Raiders).
Jonathan Taylor (vs. Broncos)
Joanthan Taylor finished Week 1 with 98 scrimmage yards and no touchdowns, a level of production that checked in just below expectations, but numbers that should generate zero concerns.
He played every single offensive snap in the first half while the Colts built their big lead over the Dolphins, and while the efficiency numbers weren’t pretty, his 100% catch rate and pre-contact metrics all suggest that better days are ahead.
The better Daniel Jones plays in the long term, the better it is for Taylor. Beating up Miami is one thing, but the Broncos offer a completely different challenge. If he can hold his own this weekend, Taylor’s outlook will gain stability.
For his career, JT has picked up 106 scrimmage yards per game. He’s set the bar high, but if the QB play is average, there’s no reason to think he can’t be in that range this season. There are very few “safe” options in this game of ours, but Taylor is on the short list of players that I’d go to battle with every time.
Jordan Mason (vs. Falcons)
Do we already have a new main man in Minnesota?
Jordan Mason was drafted 15-ish spots in terms of the running back board behind Aaron Jones this summer. While he trailed the former Packer 27-22 in snaps during Monday night’s comeback win over the Bears, it was clear that the Vikings trusted in more of a committee fashion than a backup running back role.
For his career, Mason has 19 targets in 46 games. That’s not what he does, so the fact that Minnesota was playing from behind for much of Week 1 could have landed him a reduced role.
Nope.
He touched the ball 16 times on those 22 snaps (Jones: 11 on his 27) and was the only running back to take a red zone snap. The versatility of Jones is valuable, but if this is going to be a split situation, wouldn’t you lean towards the player who gets the most valuable touches?
I still have Jones ranked a touch higher this week because of the creativity Kevin O’Connell showcased in getting him down the field in routes against slower defenders. But both are firm flex plays, and this backfield could easily tilt in Mason’s favor should the Vikings get on the board early.
Josh Jacobs (vs. Commanders)
It wasn’t pretty, but that’s kind of the brand, right?
Josh Jacobs isn’t Derrick Henry, but he’s not one of these modern-day, stop-what-you’re-doing-and-watch freak athletes that are in scoring position with every touch.
I’ll stop short of calling him a plodder because that sounds disrespectful, but he’s a hard-nosed running back in the perfect situation. There is no threat to him in terms of work in this backfield, and Jordan Love continues to develop, making this one of the 10 most feared offenses in the game.
Jacobs has now scored in nine straight games and just goes about his business every single week. He gained yardage on just 68.4% of his rushes against the Lions, the third-worst game of his career (minimum 10 carries), but he still walked away with 14 PPR points and was a positive force for your team.
The Commanders bottled up Giants running backs last week, but make of that what you will. This is still a defense I have questions about up front, and Jacobs isn’t really the type of running back I’d want to try to tackle on a short week.
Jacobs is where Jacobs always is for me: a low-end RB1 with a high floor that I can count on.
Kaleb Johnson (vs. SEA)
Two months ago, we thought that Kaleb Johnson could be 2024 Najee Harris.
One month ago, we were putting air in Warren’s tires.
Now, Kaleb Johnson is on the fringes of rosterable. It’s been a rough summer for the rookie, and two snaps in the opener (one carry for -2 yards) is evidence that he doesn’t have the trust of the finicky Aaron Rodgers.
Of course, that could change with time, but there’s no reason to think it does in the short term, and Pittsburgh has a Week 5 bye. Kenneth Gainwell actually led this backfield in snaps (27-25 over Warren), making this situation even cloudier than we anticipated.
Johnson doesn’t need to be rostered at this moment, but I’m not turning the lights out (Weeks 13-16: Bills, Ravens, Dolphins, and Lions, all of whom looked vulnerable on the defensive side of the ball). It’s a long shot that he wins the bellcow role outright, but I still think there is 10-12 touch potential here, even if he doesn’t need to be rostered over the next month.
Kareem Hunt (vs. Eagles)
That was a whole lot of nothing on Friday night from this Kansas City backfield. While I’m willing to write some of it off as a result of playing a familiar opponent in a different country and losing your WR1 after three snaps, red flags were certainly raised.
Both Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco were handed the ball five times and targeted three. Pacheco held a 28-23 edge in snaps and 21-17 routes, giving him the slight edge, but nothing to write home about.
Hunt held a 4-2 edge in snaps once the Chiefs reached the Chargers’ 10-yard line, and that is noteworthy, even if we are dealing with the smallest sample. As long as Patrick Mahomes is under center, we expect the Chiefs to frequently enter the red zone regularly, thus creating a path to flex value in very specific situations, if you’re desperate. But I have a hard time thinking you’re already at that point.
It’s not a perfect comparison, but isn’t he just a version of 2024 Jaylen Warren? Last season, that meant nothing until it meant something (five straight top-30 finishes in Weeks 10-14). Warren wormed his way into a 10-carry, four-target type of role, and that was good enough to get you through bye week season, even if you weren’t ever excited about it.
As long as Pacheco is healthy, I think that’s the best-case scenario. You’re holding onto Hunt, understanding that what happened to the Chiefs as a whole on Friday isn’t likely to sustain, but that the ceiling isn’t all that high.
Kenneth Walker III (at Steelers)
We got so carried away this summer dreaming of what Kenneth Walker III would have access to in a Klint Kubiak offense that we underplayed the potential for him to be part of a full-blown committee.
Maybe you didn’t. I don’t know, you don’t post your rankings. I know I did.
Zach Charbonnet held a 28-18 snap edge in Week 1 and handled five of six red zone snaps. There’s no debate: he had the most valuable role among Seahawks running backs in the season opener.
That, of course, doesn’t mean we have an official shift of power in Seattle, but it was telling that, with the entire offseason to prepare, Kubiak ran Charbonnet out there at the rate he did.
Maybe this is a preservation move on Walker’s part. Maybe we can thank him long-term. But this feels like the dreaded “hot-hand” situation, where we are throwing darts pregame and cashing live bets at halftime when it is clear which back is trending better.
Walker’s ADP was 80 spots ahead of Charbonnet’s this summer, and it’s clear that the gap was far too broad. The Steelers were gashed for 182 yards and three scores last week by the Jets, but a mobile quarterback certainly factored into their efficiency.
I think you’re skating on thin ice this week if you’re starting either of these backs. We know that collapsing pockets are the kryptonite of Sam Darnold, so what is to stop Pittsburgh from turning into Blitzburgh in this spot?
I’m actively avoiding both Seattle running backs until further notice. For this week, I’d rather flex, in PPR formats, Keenan Allen (at Raiders) or Hollywood Brown (vs. Eagles), a thought that would have seemed ludicrous less than a month ago.
Kyren Williams (at Titans)
Last week, Kyren Williams scored, got 20 opportunities, and played in a favorable game script.
You were rewarded for playing him, but I can’t help but think that you’re going to have a hard time paying off the price you paid on draft day when all is said and done this season.
Williams doesn’t have a 20-yard run, despite all of the volume you could ask for, since November, and he doesn’t have a run longer than 30 yards since the November before that.
Let me put that a different way.
- Since Week 13, 2024: 3rd in carries, not one of 25 players with a 21+ yard run
- Since Week 13, 2023: 2nd in carries, not one of 78 players with a 31+ yard run
He averages under two catches per game for his career and has underwhelmed in yards per carry in two of his three seasons (3.7 YPC on Sunday has me thinking he’ll make it three of four).
So yes, he scores touchdowns, and that’s great. But what happens if the offense fails to move the ball? He’s not going to land a haymaker from distanc,e and if he’s held out of the end zone, he falls from RB19 to RB33 in Week 1.
I intentionally have zero shares of Williams, but if I had him and could get running backs drafted in his general range (Bucky Irving, James Cook, or Omarion Hampton), I’d jump without thinking twice.
Miles Sanders (vs. Giants)
That 49-yard run was fun, right?
I hope you enjoyed those few minutes. The lost red zone fumble that followed it might be the last valuable carry we see the former Nittany Lion handle this month.
I didn’t think Javonte Williams was a world beater against the Eagles (3.6 yards per carry), but this is a team that is going to need to maximize every opportunity they get, and he at least did that with a pair of touchdown plunges.
I’m keeping Sanders as the last player on my bench, where I have him until Jaydon Blue steps onto the field. The promising rookie was a healthy scratch for the opener, something I suspect will change sooner than later. This Dallas offense may not be good enough to support a single RB every week, and if/when Blue shows his potential, Sanders stands to fall to third on this depth chart.
Hold for now, but don’t get too attached.
Najee Harris (at Raiders)
It was good to see that Najee Harris recovered enough from the Fourth of July fireworks incident to be active for Friday night, but there’s a long way for him to go before I’m considering him a lock to remain on rosters.
In the win over the Chiefs, he had a catch before he had a carry, and neither came in the first quarter. A five-yard reception early in the second stanza was his only target for the day, and he had only a single carry.
Omarion Hampton was fine as the starter (0.60 yards per carry before contact, limited just how impressive he had a chance to be), and with the rookie garnering 83.3% of the non-Justin Herbert rush attempts, this is pretty clearly his job to lose.
If you want to hold onto Harris as he ramps into form, acknowledging that it’s very likely he’s just a big-name handcuff, fine by me. But if you told me that there was a Week 1 breakout player available in your more shallow league who has a direct path to weekly volume that you prefer, I’d believe you very much.
Nick Chubb (vs. Buccaneers)
Nick Chubb looked good on Sunday?
I mean, I guess. He ran 13 times for 60 yards, but he didn’t catch his lone target against the Rams, and the deeper you dive into the data, the more red flags appear.
If you leave the injury off to the side for a moment and simply evaluate what we saw on Sunday, I’m still not sold. The Houston offensive line struggled for the majority of the opener, yet Chubb was better than the league average before contact on nine of his 13 attempts.
That doesn’t feel the least bit sticky.
Factor in the injuries, and Chubb feels more like a roster bandage than the answer to your questions. In the absence of Joe Mixon, four different running backs handled multiple carries, and while he was the clear lead of the bunch, this is a situation begging for someone to step up.
If you don’t have Nico Collins on your roster, I don’t think you want to expose yourself to the Texans in any capacity until they prove to us that last week’s mess was an exception and not the rule.
Ollie Gordon II (vs. Patriots)
Ollie Gordon’s name was as popular as any in the late stages of draft season, but he was out-snapped at nearly a three-to-one clip in the season opener by De’Von Achane.
We weren’t sure about the health of Achane as Week 1 approached, but once it became clear that he was good to go, a limited role that doesn’t hold standalone value behind him is roughly what we expected.
Things are messy in Miami right now, and that’s exactly why I’d hold Gordon. I’m not sure who is on this team by Halloween if they play like they did on Sunday a few more times, and that could open up opportunities for a handful of new names, Gordon’s being atop that list.
But as things stand right now, you’re talking about a clear backup running back on a team that was lucky to score in Week 1. Gordon is a stash and nothing more.
Omarion Hampton (at Raiders)
When we recap the season in January, Omarion Hampton’s 17-touch, 61-yard debut won’t make the cut, but he showed me enough to be confident that this is his job to lose, and the team as a whole showed more than enough promise when it comes to creating an advantageous environment.
The rookie had gains of eight and 11 yards in the first quarter (outside of those two spurts, his other 13 carries picked up just 29 yards) and did well to get what was blocked.
The problem? Not much was blocked. Hampton averaged under two feet per carry before contact, and if Jim Harbaugh is going to truly put the ball in the hands of Justin Herbert this season, there’s a chance that Hampton’s weekly value hinges more on his work as a pass catcher than we’d like.
He’s a viable pass catcher (8.7 yards per grab while at North Carolina, with 10.5% of his touches coming via the reception), and we saw the Steelers opt for a non-Najee Harris option in that role in years past.
I came away from Week 1 about where I entered it in terms of Hampton’s value for the season. He profiles as the lead back of an above-average offense, and I expect his versatility to result in some spike weeks.
If the offensive line struggles to create lanes, there is a floor to consider as Harris rounds into game shape. Still, I think you can pencil in Hampton as a weekly starter without much of a second thought right now, and there’s potential for much more in this plus-matchup on extended rest.
Quinshon Judkins (at Ravens)
The fact that all charges against Quinshon Judkins were dropped this summer gives us a level of clarity that didn’t seem likely, but his early-season outlook remains cloudy at best, given the amount of missed practice time and the general projected ineptitude of this offense.
This could turn into an imperfect storm where Judkins is brought up to speed by the time a QB change takes place.
I’m not optimistic that this season will go well, but there’s a clear path to volume on a team that will likely prefer to run the ball, so this situation has to have our interest. Judkins cleared 1,200 yards and scored at least 16 times in all three of his collegiate seasons, and that pedigree is what required the Browns to spend a second-round pick on him.
That said, they’ve gotten a whole camp of Dylan Sampson and are comfortable with Jerome Ford. This profiles as a wide-open committee situation, thus making it a rather easy fade for now, with the understanding that rostering any of these backs is more of an October play, and that that might be on the optimistic side of things, even if his NFL debut is expected to come this weekend.
Rachaad White (at Texans)
Rachaad White was on the field for just 14 snaps over the weekend, well behind Bucky Irving’s 43. On nine of those 14, he ran a route, and that’s his path to mattering in an old-school Theo Riddick sort of way.
But even that feels optimistic because of the duality of Irving and the explosive potential that is in play with every touch he gets.
We are in the healthiest portion of the season, and that means you’re likely not in a roster crunch. You can hold onto White right now without really impacting your win expectancy. That’s fine, I have no problem with that. Exposure to a high-flying offense is generally how I fill out my rosters.
That said, if we are in the middle of October and you’re dealing with injury question marks all over the place, I wouldn’t be shocked if White is on the chopping block for a warm body that you can count on for 6-8 touches and/or a handful of targets.
I’d much rather roster a Tyler Allgeier type over White because I’m confident in what I’m getting if the starter goes down. White averages 3.8 yards per carry for his career and, by every measure, is one of the worst between-the-tackle runners in the league.
Ray Davis (at Jets)
Not all lessons we learned in Week 1 will win or lose you your league, but all are important.
In the crazy win over the Ravens, Ray Davis was on the field for just eight snaps, working not only behind James Cook, but also Ty Johnson (25 snaps).
Now, the game state was unique, so I’m not ready to say that Johnson is the second most valuable Buffalo running back. He’s not. He’s a fancy Samaje Perine in that he has his role, that role just happened to be called upon with regularity during a historic comeback. But he’s also not going away.
We saw Davis impress last season when given the opportunity, and nothing I saw in Week 1 has moved me off of that impression. It was always going to be a long shot for this backfield to support multiple weekly options, and that remains the case – Davis is a contingent play.
That’s not the most exciting of roles, but it’s the type of thing I don’t mind investing in right now. The importance of depth increases as the season progresses: the hope is that Davis can realize some value by the time bye weeks kick in, and every spot on your bench holds value.
Leagues with shallow benches aren’t a good fit for the Davis profile, but if you have some room to play the long game, I remain interested.
Rhamondre Stevenson (at Dolphins)
This feels like a team being stubborn, and that’s annoying, but I don’t think it lasts.
It can’t. The Patriots think they have the QB of their future under center, and that makes every week during his rookie deal a valuable one. Rhamondre Stevenson got the first rush attempt of the season and nearly doubled TreVeyon Henderson in snaps (45-23), but is this team content with losing to the Raiders at home?
It’s the smallest of small samples, but Stevenson got two more carries than Henderson last week and gained 12 fewer yards. The rookie has rare big-play ability at the position, and I suspect that his first chunk play as a professional could result in a snap shift in this backfield.
This is as good a spot as any for one of these backs to work their way into the RB2 conversation moving forward, but entering the week with this being a full-blown committee, you’re going to have a tough time starting either of them.
As a reminder, the inefficient showing from Stevenson against the Raiders last week was not an aberration:
PFSN Elusive Rating by season:
- 2021: 38.3%
- 2022: 33.8%
- 2023: 28.2%
- 2024: 27.1%
5+ yard rush rate by season:
- 2021: 40.6%
- 2022: 37.6%
- 2023: 36.5%
- 2024: 32.4%
RJ Harvey (at Colts)
RJ Harvey held a slim 7-5 snap edge over J.K. Dobbins in the first quarter, but it was 32-15 the rest of the way in favor of the veteran.
This was about as even a rotation as you can get with the two essentially just alternating drives; the Dobbins drives just happened to last a bit longer, thus resulting in his 18-7 touch edge for the week.
I’m not labeling that as predictive, but I still like the rookie to control this backfield when it matters most. We caught a glimpse of what is possible with Harvey by way of a 50-yard run in the fourth quarter. Denver made him a second-round pick after three straight seasons of averaging over 6.0 yards per carry at UCF, and given that they are a win-now team, I expect them to lean into that upside sooner than later.
For now, we wait. All things even, I think Harvey works into the lead role by the middle of the season, but there’s a good chance not all things are even. Dobbins was drafted in 2020 and has played in 55.9% of potential games since.
Stay the course.
Saquon Barkley (at Chiefs)
The man touches the ball 22 times, scores, and offers a highlight play, yet we are disappointed.
After the storybook 2024 season, the bar might be a little high for Saquon Barkley. That said, five targets were good to see (tied his highest output from last season), and his three carries inside the 10-yard line matched his second-best showing from a year ago.
The Eagles utilized Kylen Granson as a FB on three plays against the Cowboys in Week 1.
– Granson brought in a reception for one yard but could’ve had more yards if targeted earlier.
– Saquon Barkley gained four yards on both runs that Granson blocked for as a FB. pic.twitter.com/ddmLOPXkTD
— Anthony DiBona (@DiBonaNFL) September 11, 2025
The Tushy Push is going to be a pain for as long as it’s legal, and I thought Will Shipley looked good before exiting, so maybe we won’t get a repeat of 2024 … that was always going to be the case. The matchup isn’t ideal — 25 carries for only 57 yards in the Super Bowl against the Chiefs, with gains on just 76% of attempts and no runs over 10 yards. Still, his volume and role in this offense keep him firmly in RB1 territory.
Again, we are complaining about a game that 96% of players would be happy with.
Relax. The usage around the goal line was why Barkley wasn’t really a part of the 1.01 conversation this summer. Still, the volume is why he never fell outside of the first round, and if he’s going to be used in space as a pass catcher more this season than last, I don’t think you end up regretting this selection at all.
Tank Bigsby (at Chiefs)
After being an afterthought in Week 1 (it took mop-up duty for him even to approach one-third of the snaps that Travis Etienne played), Tank Bigsby was shipped off to Philadelphia on Monday.
Good thing for his career, bad thing for his fantasy managers.
Instead of competing for a lead role in a potentially wide-open Liam Coen offense, he’s, at best, a committee handcuff in an offense with the premier rushing TD vulture of a generation.
That’s not great.
If you want to track Will Shipley’s health, I’ll allow it. But with AJ Dillon also in the mix, Bigsby ever hitting your lineup is a parlay that I’m not willing to take.
Explore trade options with the Saquon Barkley manager as a courtesy, but realistically, I’m fine with cutting ties if there is a player with upside on your wire.
Tony Pollard (vs. Rams)
The 29-yard catch was good to see.
There you go, all of the optimism that was garnered from the Titans in Week 1.
Taking a rookie quarterback into Denver on a team short of proven playmakers was always going to be a tough sell, and it went to script. That 29-yard grab? It was enough for Pollard to lead the Titans in receiving for the week.
No, not the longest single catch. The leading receiver. As in, no one on this team had 30 receiving yards.
As expected, with Tyjae Spears sidelined, Pollard carried the mail (90% of RB carries), and as expected, he had very little room to run (long run: nine yards).
Yards per carry before contact:
- 2021: 1.92 yards
- 2022: 1.40 yards
- 2023: 1.07 yards
- 2024: 0.75 yards
- Week 1: 0.33 yards
The Rams were impressive against the Texans last weekend, and while I’m still sorting out if that was more of a good Los Angeles performance or an indictment of Houston’s offensive line, it happened. They project as a tough matchup, and that should have you trending off of Pollard if at all possible this weekend (my RB27, behind J.K. Dobbins and Bill Crosky-Merritt).
If Cam Ward develops on the fly, maybe pieces of this offense grab my attention by midseason. Until then, I’m perfectly fine with not starting anyone on this roster in standard-sized leagues.
Travis Etienne Jr. (at Bengals)
There are going to be backfields that are currently muddy, get muddier with time, and result in nothing of fantasy significance for the majority of the season.
If you asked me a week ago, this Jacksonville situation would have been at the top of my list of candidates for that distinction.
Good thing you didn’t ask.
Travis Etienne looked like … well … rookie season Travis Etienne in Week 1, and following the performance, Tank Bigsby was shipped off to Philadelphia. This is now a two-man backfield with the lead back coming off arguably the best game of his career and a rookie who was hardly used in the opener.
Is Etienne a top-15 running back in Week 2 after not cracking my top 40 in Week 1?
That’s the range I have him at right now. Against the Panthers, 68.8% of Etienne’s carries were better than league average in terms of yards gained before contact (third best among the 32 RBs who carried the ball 10+ times in Week 1), a nod to the vision that we saw early in his career.
He also hauled in all three of his targets. Are you old enough to remember when Etienne was one of four backs with 1,000 yards on the ground and 50 catches? It was way back in 2023.
The Bengals were a bottom-10 defense in terms of RB yards before contact last season, but they were the second-best on Sunday against the Browns. I suppose this defense may have improved since last season, but I’m not close to fearing them.
The Jags can keep this game tight by keeping Joe Burrow off the field, and relying on Etienne for 18+ touches is the way they are most likely to do that.
A few weeks ago, Braelon Allen came off the board before Etienne in a draft I was a part of. Entering Week 2, I have nine running backs wedged between them in my positional ranks.
TreVeyon Henderson (at Dolphins)
If I told you a week ago that TreyVeon Henderson would lead the Patriots in rushing yards and receptions, you may have given a kidney and an RB3 in a trade to acquire him before his price inevitably exploded.
Those things were true on Sunday against the Raiders, but his stock hasn’t budged because Rhamondre Stevenson held a 45-23 snap edge over him, and the offense as a whole was stuck in the mud (4.9 yards per play and 28.6% on third downs).
Henderson only got five carries, and they weren’t really an impressive five, with 70.4% of his yards coming before contact. Maybe as the sample grows, we learn that to be more of a vision stat than anything, but his six catches really are what saved you from a complete disaster.
On those six targets, Henderson’s average depth of target was -3.17 yards. Would I love to see him used more as an actual route runner than a safety valve? Of course I would, but these bail-out catches count just as much as anything, and if this is how New England wants to get him into space, who am I to argue?
This plus matchup is a dual-edged sword, right? Henderson’s usage would seem to put him in a position to decimate a defense that can’t tackle (Miami has allowed the third-most yards after contact per carry since the beginning of last season), but that’s a strong spot for everyone. Stevenson doubled him up in touches over the weekend.
If this is truly Stevenson’s job to lose, I think he will, but asking that fall from grace to happen against the currently hapless Dolphins is … well … optimistic.
Henderson is an acceptable flex option this week, and I remain just as bullish on him for this season as a whole as I was all summer: he’s going to be a lineup lock, and I’m not sure it takes us until Halloween to have him ranked as such.
Tyjae Spears (vs. Rams)
I thought Tyjae Spears (ankle) ran reasonably hard last year when given the chance, and by earning 15 targets in his last three games, there’s something here. What “something” means isn’t clear, but this former third-round pick is in a key evaluation year — midway through his rookie deal as Tony Pollard’s guaranteed money expires. He’s part of a team trying to climb from rock bottom with its new franchise quarterback in place.
I’m comfortable making the second-half-of-the-season case for Spears (currently on Injured Reserve with an ankle injury), but not before that. The Tulane product has averaged under 10 touches per game for his career, and that’s the role I’m projecting for the short term.
If you have room on your bench/IR, stashing Spears is the play, understanding that your patience could be rewarded, but outright aggression likely won’t be.
Tyler Allgeier (at Vikings)
The Falcons picked up 69 yards on their 28 rush attempts against the Bucs on Sunday. That sort of inefficiency will likely kill any hope of viewing Tyler Allgeier as a high-floor flex play in emergency situations.
He wasn’t targeted a single time in the opener, and as long as Bijan Robinson is atop this depth chart, I don’t see that changing.
Why target a different running back when your star is in scoring position the second he touches the rock, no matter where he is on the field?
I do think this Atlanta offense will be better than average this season and could well peak as Michael Penix becomes more comfortable. That’s why “burning” a roster spot on Allgeier is a viable strategy: if Robinson goes down, you’ve got a top 20 running back that you can play and play.
That said, I don’t see a situation in which there is standalone value in this profile, barring an injury.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. (at Cowboys)
We spend the entire summer trying to project the distribution of backfield touches. We evaluate skill set fits, projected game scripts, and a million other things that go into creating sound rankings and entering your draft with confidence.
But sometimes, it just doesn’t matter.
Last week, I was much higher than the field on Tyrone Tracy Jr. I rostered him at a bargain in DFS and thought I was smarter than everyone. The idea was multi-pronged: the Giants’ defense is underrated and can thus keep the game tight, which would mean a conservative game plan, allowing me to lean into my projection of Tracy as a bellcow against a defense with some question marks.
Process-wise, I stand by it. Hell, I was right for the most part, it just didn’t matter.
Tracy out-snapped Cam Skattebo 45-7, but it only resulted in 10 carries because this offensive line couldn’t get a push. He was stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage on six of his 10 carries (NFL RB average in Week 1: 22.9%), and the G-men (correctly) just gave up trying on the ground.
Why would we project that to change this week?
Last season, Tracy carried 13 times for 34 yards against Dallas, and after what we saw last week, that’d be a welcome level of efficiency.
I’m comfortable labeling him as the bellcow for now, but that doesn’t mean he should be near your lineup. Tracy is currently my RB36, ranking behind multiple backs in Washington, Seattle, and Minnesota.
And no, I’m not making the same mistake in DFS this week.
Woody Marks (vs. Buccaneers)
Targeting uncertainty makes perfect sense in the preseason. The only way it works once we get into the regular season is by being agile and willing to move on.
Woody Marks could have been the answer to the Joe Mixon injury in Houston. The odds weren’t great, but they weren’t zero, and that’s why you threw a dart in the final round.
I actually think the draft pick process was a good one.
But it no longer matters.
Marks was on the field for just seven offensive snaps on Sunday, playing well behind Nick Chubb and Dare Ogunbowale, not to mention matching Dameon Pierce in that regard. The latter two also play on special teams, making it even more alarming that the Texans weren’t willing to feature Marks to a degree and let those two focus on their other responsibilities.
The Texans’ backfield isn’t one I’m looking to get exposure to, and if you have Marks at the end of your bench, you should be looking elsewhere for role upside.
Zach Charbonnet (at Steelers)
Adam Schefter raised the idea of this being more of a committee situation on Sunday in the pregame coverage, and when that man talks, you’re wise to listen.
Week 1 snaps:
- Charbonnet: 28 (five in the red zone)
- Kenneth Walker III: 18 (one in the red zone)
Walker has missed multiple games in every season of his career and seen his yards per carry average dip in consecutive campaigns: that’s exactly why I think this sort of distribution has staying power.
Teams with a fragile lead back have two choices: either manage them or ride them hard and be prepared to pay the health bill with time. It appears that, in addition to acquiring Charbonnet as a player, Seattle has opted to distribute the workload rather than overexerting one player and altering the structure of their offense.
I think this is the right move for the Seahawks, but a worst-case scenario for fantasy managers. I still believe the Steelers’ defense is viable despite their poor showing to open the season, and that makes neither Seahawk RB a top-25 play for me in Week 2.
The advanced metric that most has my attention from the opener, in regards to this backfield, is something I call “Before%”. It’s a simple stat: on what percentage of carries did a player perform better than the league RB average before contact.
I like using this because it helps mitigate the impact of the outlier carries. If a player goes untouched for an 80-yard touchdown, his raw before-contact numbers are wonky for the next two months, but that’s not the case when it comes to Before%.
Week 1 before%
- Charbonnet: 75%
- Walker III: 40%
That’s obviously a small sample, but these two are running behind the exact same offensive line and, through one week at least, Charbonnet did it better.
