The Miami Hurricanes likely would have been considered underdogs had this been an August game, but here we are in the middle of September, and our College Football Power Meter has Miami favored by 15.5 points over the Florida Gators. This isn’t as crazy as one would think when considering the results of the past couple of weeks.
Our Miami vs. Florida preview covers how these fates have flipped and which players could make the most significant difference on Saturday.
Miami Hurricanes vs. Florida Gators
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 20th, 2025
- Game time: 7:30 PM ET
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium | Miami, Florida
- Predicted Weather at Kick: 77 degrees, Partly Cloudy, 5-10 MPH Winds
- How To Watch: ESPN, ABC
Miami vs. Florida Head-to-Head Record
Using Winsipedia, we see that Miami has the advantage 30-27 in their history. The last time these teams faced each other was August 24, 2019, when the Gators came out victorious in a 24-20 win. Current NFL players Kadarius Toney, Kyle Pitts, Dameon Pierce, and Van Jefferson took the field in that contest.
Miami vs. Florida Grades
PFSN College OFFi
- Miami (87.9, B+)
- Florida (82.6, B-)
PFSN College DEFi
- Miami (86.8, B)
- Florida (91.3, A-)
PFSN College OLi
- Miami (87.3, B+)
- Florida (94.5, A)
PFSN College QBi
- Carson Beck, Miami (86.3, B)
- DJ Lagway, Florida (77.4, C+)
PFSN College RBi
- Mark Fletcher Jr., Miami (86.3, B)
- Jadan Baugh, Florida (87.3, B+)
PFSN College WRi
- Malachi Toney, Miami (82.0, B-)
- Vernell Brown III, Florida (78.8, C+)
PFSN College TEi
- Elija Lofton, Miami (78.4, C+)
- Hayden Hanson, Florida (83.7, B)
PFSN College EDGEi
- Reuben Bain Jr., Miami (87.1, B+)
- George Gumbs Jr., Florida (83.3, B)
PFSN College DTi
- Ahmad Moten Sr., Miami (79.2, C+)
- Brendan Bett, Florida (78.4, C+)
PFSN College LBi
- Mohamed Toure, Miami (76.7, C)
- Myles Graham, Florida (84.6, B)
PFSN College CBi
- Will Lee III, Texas A&M (76.5, C)
- Christian Gray, Notre Dame (74.3, C)
PFSN College SAFi
- Charles Brantley, Miami (81.6, B-)
- Devin Moore, Florida (85.9, B)
Miami vs. Florida Prediction
It’s hard not to look at what LSU did to DJ Lagway last week and wonder if things will be the same against Miami. Lagway was surprisingly okay against both the blitz and under pressure. According to TruMedia, Lagway finished 13-of-18 for 115 yards, one sack, and zero turnovers or scores against the blitz. Under pressure, he completed 10-of-15 passes for 124 yards with an interception.
LSU’s defense generated four other turnovers by disguising coverages. As Max Toscano explains, Lagway was getting a man coverage look, but LSU quickly switched into 2-trap, preventing quick out-breaking routes from going anywhere.
Now they’re getting into 2-trap. They show man coverage and he’s just looking for the quick throw against the WLB to get it out but almost throws another pick to the trap corner. https://t.co/ccTWe3Beda pic.twitter.com/jzgrNRFBym
— Max Toscano (@maxtoscano1) September 14, 2025
What’s wild about this is that LSU ranks 85th in the Shannon entropy coverage index, which measures how varied a defense gets with its coverages. Miami, on the other hand, ranks 35th. Both defenses use single-high looks the most often, but Miami likes to switch it up with quarters, while LSU tends to go Cover 2 when wanting a change of pace.
Luckily for Florida, they rank significantly better against Cover 1 and 3 than against Cover 4 and 2. Still, it’s not a good matchup for this Florida passing offense. The Gators rank 85th in rush EPA (expected points added) against a Miami run defense that stifled one of the best rushing attacks in football when they faced the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
Florida’s only chance of staying in this game is on the other side of the ball. Their defense is one of the best units in the nation, ranking fifth in our DEFi rankings. They rank second in defensive rush EPA but just 49th against the pass. This is a very dangerous combo for Miami’s 11th-best passing EPA.
Carson Beck and the Hurricanes’ offense showed Notre Dame what happens when he has all day to throw the ball. Miami ranks 13th with no pressure and 40th when pressured. Combine that with the fact that Miami has our 24th-best offensive line with a B+ grade and is going up against a defensive line ranking 118th in pressure rate, and I think our Power Meter projections are pretty accurate.
Prediction: Miami 35, Florida 17
