Rooted in legacy and high school highlight reels, Arch Manning entered the 2025 college football season riding a wave of expectation as a first-year starter for the Texas Longhorns. However, after three weeks, the Heisman Trophy and 2026 NFL Draft hype surrounding his name has been replaced by question marks and mystery.
What does it all mean moving forward, for both Manning and Texas? His slow start has raised questions that demand answers.
Breaking Down Arch Manning’s Early Struggles at Texas
After flashing some eye-catching skill set in relief of Quinn Ewers last season, Manning Mania began in full force ahead of the 2025 college football season. The latest product of an imperious footballing family, the young Texas quarterback was anointed a potential first overall pick and leading Heisman Trophy contender despite little game film to evidence the expectations.
Opening the year against the Ohio State Buckeyes wasn’t the cupcake beginning enjoyed by some in Week 1, but the disparity between expectation and reality as the Longhorns succumbed to defeat was stark. A four-touchdown outing against the San Jose State Spartans added some statistical sparkle, but Manning struggled again in Week 3 against the UTEP Miners.
Heading into the Week 4 clash with the Sam Houston Bearkats, Manning has thrown for just 579 yards, completed 55.3% of his passes, and has a 2:1 touchdown to interception ratio. The numbers are suboptimal; the film behind them is more troublesome. It has led college football and NFL Draft analysts alike to question the troubles experienced by the Texas star.
“Manning has been poor to start the year,” PFSN analyst Ian Cummings commented in the week leading up to the Sam Houston game.
“His Week 1 showing against Ohio State put his poor mechanics, accuracy, and field vision under the spotlight, and those issues have only festered and materialized further through three weeks. He hasn’t secured a PFSN QBi score higher than 72.6 in a given week, with middling EPA per clean dropback numbers and negative EPA per pressured dropback numbers in each game.”
Conducting a thorough examination of what Manning has shown on tape and his statistical output leads Cummings to one conclusion.
“Manning has not been good. This doesn’t mean he can’t develop. But the fact that there’s been so little progression after a full offseason as the starter is concerning, to say the least.”
When a player doesn’t immediately live up to expectations, it’s natural to question why. Cummings points to multiple factors, including a potential inflation of his ability based on the legacy of his last name. After close-up shots showed Manning grimacing while throwing, Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian was forced to field questions about the Longhorns’ passer’s injury status.
“I don’t know, news to me,” Sarkisian responded following the San Jose State game, while his Monday press conference leading up to Week 3 featured a bizarre back-and-forth where he used a bathroom reference to brush off any injury concerns.
What’s Next? Realistic NFL Draft Timeline for Arch Manning
Having been considered a potential one-and-done starter for the Longhorns as a 2026 NFL Draft prospect by some analysts, the difficult start to the 2025 college football season has forced people across the landscape to reevaluate when Manning might look to turn pro.
It would appear that a multi-year tenure as the Texas starting quarterback is a more logical expectation, Cummings explains.
“Barring a drastic turnaround, 2026 is more than likely not his declaration year. On film, assuming he’s healthy, he looks at least two years away from being ready for an NFL Draft ascent. SEC play should only reinforce this truth.”
MORE: Where Does Arch Manning Feature in Latest 3-Round 2026 NFL Mock Draft?
That’s not to say that an eventual ascent to NFL stardom, like the family members that came before him, won’t come.
“Manning still has upside,” Cummings states as he dives into the Texas quarterback’s scouting report.
“He’s a high-level size-adjusted athlete, and when his mechanics are sound, his arm strength shines, but the NFL Draft is not a legacy affair. Manning has to earn early-round capital on his own merits, and right now, he’s far away from accomplishing that.”
“Perhaps it might be beneficial for Manning to take on that mindset, too. He doesn’t need to rush anything; he has no monetary or reputational incentive to declare earlier than he should. He should take his time, get reps, and gain comfort, without setting a deadline to follow in his uncles’ footsteps, or forcing himself to shoulder inordinate pressure.”
