Weekday CUSA returns with an enticing midweek showdown as two programs seek their first conference victory of the season. The Missouri State Bears make the trip to Murfreesboro to face the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders in a pivotal Conference USA battle.
Our comprehensive Missouri State vs. Middle Tennessee prediction breakdown features exclusive PFSN team and player grades, detailed head-to-head series analysis, key matchup insights, and all the essential game information you need.
Missouri State vs. Middle Tennessee Game Details
- Date: Wednesday, Oct. 8, 2025
- Game time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Johnny “Red” Floyd Stadium | Murfreesboro, TN
- Predicted Weather at Kick: 62 degrees, mostly clear, 6 mph winds
- How To Watch: ESPN2
Missouri State vs. Middle Tennessee Head-to-Head Record
Wednesday night marks the revival of a long-dormant matchup as these programs face off for just the second time in their history. Nearly four decades have passed since Missouri State and Middle Tennessee last met on October 18, 1986, when the Blue Raiders dominated 42-19 at Briggs Stadium in Springfield.
With Missouri State’s entry into Conference USA for the 2025 season, this renewed meeting represents the beginning of what should develop into an exciting annual encounter.
Missouri State vs. Middle Tennessee Grades
PFSN College OFFi
- Missouri State: 70.8 (C-)
- Middle Tennessee: 61.0 (D-)
PFSN College DEFi
- Missouri State: 69.5 (D+)
- Middle Tennessee: 65.3 (D)
PFSN College OLi
- Missouri State: 60.3 (D-)
- Middle Tennessee: 59.6 (F)
PFSN College QBi
- Jacob Clark, Missouri State: 70.6 (C-)
- Nicholas Vattiato, Middle Tennessee: 63.0 (D)
PFSN College RBi
- Shomari Lawrence, Missouri State: 63.8 (D)
- Jekail Middlebrook, Middle Tennessee: 67.2 (D+)
PFSN College WRi
- Dash Luke, Missouri State: 74.7 (C)
- Nahzae Cox, Middle Tennessee: 73.1 (C)
PFSN College TEi
- Jeron Askren, Missouri State: 67.5 (D+)
- Hunter Tipton, 68.2 (D+)
PFSN College EDGEi
- Davon Townley Jr., Missouri State: 71.4 (C-)
- Anthony Bynum, Middle Tennessee: 69.5 (D+)
PFSN College DTi
- Ryan Williams, Missouri State: 69.7 (D+)
- Damonte Smith, Middle Tennessee: 86.9 (B)
PFSN College LBi
- Kanye Young, Missouri State: 71.2 (C-)
- Parker Hughes, Middle Tennessee: 70.4 (C-)
PFSN College CBi
- Jordan Dunbar, Missouri State: 77.9 (C+)
- Abdul Muhammad, Middle Tennessee 64.9 (D)
PFSN College SAFi
- Maguire Neal, Missouri State: 84.1 (B)
- Juwon Gaston, Middle Tennessee: 67.9 (D+)
Missouri State vs. Middle Tennessee Prediction
Weekday CUSA serves up a potential close-fought slugfest on Wednesday night as 2-3 Missouri State travels to Murfreesboro to face 1-4 Middle Tennessee. With both teams settling into shaky starts, the PFSN College Football Playoff Meter (FPM) labels it a true pick ’em, a 50:50 game that could be decided on the flip of a coin, making for an exciting encounter to open Week 7.
Ryan Beard’s Bears team might be 2-3, but they’ve had about the toughest introduction to life in the FBS as you could ask for. Opening up on the road at the USC Trojans, they’ve faced two Power Four opponents in out-of-conference play. Their CUSA campaign opener came against a Western Kentucky Hilltoppers team that is fancied to win the conference this season.
Meanwhile, Year 2 under Derek Mason has been an unmitigated disaster for the Blue Raiders. They lost the season-opener to non-FBS Austin Peay, took heavy losses to Wisconsin and Marshall (who Missouri State beat earlier in the season), and their CUSA opening defeat came to Kennesaw State. The Owls are flying high, but they’re no Western Kentucky.
The losses have exposed frailties in both teams, and they have similar weaknesses.
The offensive line play has been suboptimal, and defensively, they’re among the worst teams in the country. Missouri State, despite the high-level play of safety Maguire Neal, has given up 6.5 yards per play, while the Blue Raiders have allowed 6.1 yards per play, despite defensive tackle Damonte Smith currently being the third-highest DT in the country.
However, one team does have enough of an advantage to prove they can get the job done on Wednesday night, and it’s not just the difference between results against a component opponent.
Middle Tennessee has simply not figured out how to be offensively superior under Mason. Last season, they averaged 18.1 points per game, and they’re currently 129th in the country with 16.4 points per game. They’re averaging just 1.39 points per drive and 4.9 yards per play, both numbers that come up short compared to Missouri State’s performance so far in 2025.
Although Middle Tennessee’s Nahzae Cox leads CUSA with four receiving touchdowns, Missouri State has a more efficient passing game right now behind Jacob Clark, who also provides a threat on the ground compared to Blue Raiders passer Nicholas Vattiato. Expect a man with plenty of CUSA experience, Shomari Lawrence, to also have a say in the Bears winning this one.
Prediction: Missouri State 21, Middle Tennessee 14
