Just when it felt like the Atlantic Coast Conference was wide open just a few weeks ago, the conference has come down to five schools vying for an opportunity at the ACC Championship game in December.
With a five-way tie currently in play for the No. 1 spot in the conference, let’s examine the odds and pathways each team will need to secure to reach the ACC Championship game.
What Do the ACC Championship Game Probabilities Reveal?
The ACC has been full of excitement as five teams sit with just one conference loss heading into the last three weeks of the regular season.
Now, mathematically, nine teams are technically eligible to make the conference championship game, depending on how the rest of the season plays out. However, for the sake of practicality, this list will solely focus on the top five teams in the conference.
Below, we’ve outlined each remaining contender according to their percentage chance of making the conference title game and winning the conference title game.
All data comes from the PFSN College Football Playoff Meter.
- Georgia Tech 52.16%
- SMU 36.54%
- Pittsburgh 35.74%
- Virginia 34.63%
- Duke 21.5%
- Louisville 12.94%
- Miami (FL) 6.44%
- North Carolina State 0.04%
- Wake Forest 0.01%
Which Teams Have the Best Odds to Reach the ACC Title Game?
- Georgia Tech 33.43%
- SMU 16.7%
- Pittsburgh 19.51%
- Virginia 16.24%
- Duke 7.46%
- Louisville 6.76%
- Miami (FL) 3.17%
- North Carolina State 0.01%
In a perfect world for North Carolina State or Wake Forest fans, if either team somehow made a push for the ACC championship game, it’d be an early Christmas present for the program. Still, for that to happen, plenty of stars would have to align if either school wants a shot at the biggest prize in the conference.
The current four-way tie for first place in the ACC is shared by Georgia Tech, SMU, Pittsburgh, and Virginia, all of whom sit at 5-1 in the conference, while Duke is just below with a 4-1 record in conference play.
We also cannot mathematically rule out Louisville and Miami (FL), who are in the shadows waiting for one of the top five teams to slip. Although it’s a low percentage for both schools, there is still a chance for either one to make the championship game, potentially.
Latest ACC Standings
1) Georgia Tech 8-1 (5-1)
2) Virginia 8-2 (5-1)
3) Pittsburgh 7-2 (5-1)
4) SMU 7-3 (5-1)
5) Duke 5-4 (4-1)
6) Louisville 7-2 (4-2)
7) Miami (FL)
8) Wake Forest 6-3 (3-3)
9) California 6-4 (3-3)
10) Clemson 4-5 (3-4)
11) Virginia Tech 3-6 (2-3)
12) NC State 5-4 (2-3)
13) UNC 4-5 (2-3)
14) Stanford 3-7 (2-5)
15) Florida State 4-5 (1-5)
16) Syracuse 3-7 (1-6)
17) Boston College 1-9 (0-6)
How Does Every ACC Contender’s Road Map to December’s Championship Game Look?
Georgia Tech’s ACC Championship Road Map
Georgia Tech will have an interesting schedule to finish out the season, competing against the ACC’s top five teams. Aside from what should be an easy matchup against Boston College this upcoming weekend, the Yellow Jackets also host No. 22 Pittsburgh and No. 5 Georgia in what should be an interesting slate for the No. 16-ranked team in the country.
The matchup against Pitt is set for fireworks and smash-mouth football, with both teams a part of the current four-team tie. With only two weeks between these two teams clashing, the anticipation is likely to begin very early for Georgia Tech, which is also hopeful its quarterback, Haynes King, will start to receive some Heisman love.
- at Boston College (Nov. 15)
- vs. Pittsburgh (Nov. 22)
- vs. Georgia (Nov. 28)
Virginia’s ACC Championship Road Map
The Cavaliers need to bounce back this weekend against Duke if they want to remain in the hunt for the ACC Championship. Losing to Wake Forest put Virginia two steps back as they looked to be one of the hottest teams in the country before being slowed down this past weekend.
With two games remaining, the Cavaliers’ focus needs to be on this weekend’s ACC matchup, as well as on their in-state rival, Virginia Tech, which could provide a boost to the team’s win percentage against common conference opponents if a tie were to occur.
- at Duke (Nov. 15)
- vs. Virginia Tech (Nov. 29)
Pittsburgh’s ACC Championship Road Map
Pittsburgh is its own key holder to the top of the ACC if it can defeat both Georgia Tech and Miami (FL) following their big-time matchup against Notre Dame this weekend. Aside from their mid-season back-to-back losses, the Panthers have been one of the hottest teams in college football that no one expected to be.
Behind darkhorse Heisman candidate Mason Heintschel, Pittsburgh is hopeful to come out of the ACC on top after finishing last season near the middle of the pack. Their two final games also allow them to eliminate both GT and Miami (FL) from contention for the ACC championship if they can secure wins.
- vs. Notre Dame (Nov. 15)
- at Georgia Tech (Nov. 22)
- vs. Miami (FL) (Nov. 29)
SMU’s ACC Championship Road Map
SMU will be paying close attention to its ACC counterparts as the Mustangs are off this weekend with a bye. However, upon return, they will need to be on top of their game as they face the current No. 20-ranked Louisville Cardinals, who are just as hungry for a shot at the ACC championship, currently sitting on the outside looking in.
If they can get past Louisville, all that is waiting for them is a final ACC showdown against the California Golden Bears, whom SMU can certainly get through. However, the matchup is not to be taken lightly, as the Mustangs will need to travel to Berkeley, CA, to conclude their regular season against the growing “Calgorithm” movement.
- vs. Louisville (No. 20)
- at Cal (Nov. 29)
Duke’s ACC Championship Road Map
Sitting at 4-1 in ACC play, the Duke Blue Devils have a gauntlet of conference opponents ahead of them as the season winds down. The good thing for Duke, though, is that all they have to do is win out, and they have a decent chance at playing in the championship game in December.
With a chance to knock Virginia out of the championship picture this week, the Blue Devils can create some serious momentum for themselves as they look to make a push at the ACC title. Following this weekend, their final two games could be favorable matchups against UNC and Wake Forest; it’s up to Duke to string together wins if they want to play for their conference’s biggest prize.
- vs. Virginia (Nov. 15)
- at UNC (Nov. 22)
- vs. Wake Forest (Nov. 29)
