The New York Jets are in a free fall and lost on Thursday Night Football to the New England Patriots on the road. However, the outcome improved their odds of getting the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Jets quarterback Justin Fields had another poor game, and he could get benched by the team. Things got off to a solid start as he led New York down to a first-quarter touchdown after a long drive. However, the Jets struggled to keep up with the Patriots’ pace as second-year quarterback Drake Maye took over, along with wide receiver Stefon Diggs.
What Are The Odds For Jets Getting No. 1 Pick?
The Jets appeared to still play hard in the second half at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Mass., but it didn’t end well. The Patriots won 27-14, and New York is now 2-8 on the season.
Coming into Week 11, Fields was the 28th-ranked quarterback in the league according to PFSN’s QB Impact metric. He had an impact score of 68.3 and is graded D+.
After Thursday’s loss, according to the PFSN NFL Playoff Predictor, the Jets have a 14.70% chance of getting the No. 1 overall pick.
2 sacks in 5 days for JJ
: #NYJvsNE on PRIME pic.twitter.com/irFU7Zcd8D
— New York Jets (@nyjets) November 14, 2025
The Tennessee Titans, though, lead the pack when it comes to the No. 1 pick with a 27.70% chance. The New Orleans Saints come in second with a 15.80% chance of securing the pick, and the Jets have the third-best odds.
Looking ahead, who might be some of the top college players available entering the 2026 NFL Draft?
Top Prospects in the 2026 NFL Draft
Rueben Bain Jr., EDGE, Miami (FL)
Rueben Bain Jr. has been a disruptive defender for as long as he’s been on the college football circuit. After joining the Hurricanes as a four-star recruit, Bain racked up 7.5 sacks, 13 tackles for loss, and three forced fumbles in his true freshman campaign.
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Bain’s sophomore season was less productive, but he was nursing a calf injury, and he has a chance to bounce back as a junior. At 275 pounds, Bain has a rare body type for the position, with elite compact mass and natural leverage, and he’s an easy accelerator with awesome raw hand power.
While power is his primary mode, he has a deep pass-rush bag and smooth upper-lower synergy, superb strength, IQ, and pursuit range in run defense, and surprising flexibility as a finisher.
Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana
Fernando Mendoza could be a potential first overall pick in waiting, and the leap could be coming at Indiana. At 6’5″, 225 pounds, Mendoza has the ideal prototypical frame, along with quick feet, nimble pocket mobility, and understated creation capacity and off-script feel.
He’s a crisp rotational and consistent aerial thrower who flashes high-end situational precision and layering ability. Even beyond that, he has the rifle arm strength and keen anticipation to make NFL-level throws. T
here’s a definite degree of arm arrogance in Mendoza’s game that he’ll have to tamp down in order to minimize unnecessary risks and forced throws. Nevertheless, he has all the physical and mental tools to catalyze a rise as a franchise QB candidate.
Dante Moore, QB, Oregon
Dante Moore has gone from dark horse to definite QB1 contender. It’s tough to call a former five-star recruit a dark horse, but Moore’s college career got off to a slower start than many expected.
As a true freshman at UCLA in 2023, he started five of nine games played with subpar efficiency. Then he transferred to Oregon and threw just eight passes in 2024 while redshirting behind Dillon Gabriel. But now that Moore has had time to develop, and now that he has the reins in a QB-friendly Oregon environment, he’s looking like an early first-round pick.
At 6’3″, 210 pounds, Moore boasts easy, effortless velocity and layering ability as his calling card, and he looks supremely poised, composed, and mechanically sound for his age. He had ice in his veins against Penn State in a tough environment, and is on a steep ascent to potential QB1 status.
Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State
Arvell Reese is a first-year starter for the Ohio State Buckeyes, who could be at the start of an early-round ascent in 2025. He was the Buckeyes’ best player in their season-opening win against the top-ranked Texas Longhorns, with nine total tackles and a sack. Along the way, Reese put translatable reps on tape as a pass-rusher, a run defender, and a coverage presence.
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At 6’4″, 243 pounds, Reese has a tantalizing blend of explosive athleticism, length, and forklifting strength. He used that strength to stack-and-shed in the run game, plaster solo blockers into the turf as a blitzer, and make solo stops in gap invasion.
Meanwhile, his range and fluidity make him dangerous as a rusher, as well as a dropper and matcher in zone coverage. Reese is on the rise; the only question is how high he goes.
Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State
Caleb Downs has received first-round premonitions from the general consensus ever since he set foot on Georgia’s campus as a five-star recruit. An instant producer at the CFB level, Downs was a star for the Bulldogs’ vaunted defense in 2023, and then for Ohio State’s Championship-level unit in 2024.
Now Downs is eligible, and he’s already in the conversation as one of the best safety prospects in recent memory. A fluid, explosive, and energized mover at 6’0″, 205 pounds, Downs is special in the box with his combined mobility, play pace, angle IQ, and physicality on blocks.
And on top of his alley-running skills, he’s an instinctive cover man who can manage route relationships, transition, and clamp down on stems from different alignments. In short, he’s a game-changer.
Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State
Carnell Tate first showed promise with a 52-733-4 receiving line last season, producing in spite of his place as the Buckeyes’ third option alongside Jeremiah Smith and first-round NFL Draft pick Emeka Egbuka.
But in 2024, Tate’s technical feel was still underdeveloped. He was primarily a vertical threat for Ohio State, which lacked polish. That hasn’t been the case in 2025. Tate has reinvented his game and has become a true route-running expert with rare sink, throttle control, and stem IQ for his size. H
e still has the long-strider range, body control, and catch-point focus that make him so potent in 50-50 situations, but he’s a true multi-level separator who can win 1-on-1, convert on clutch downs, and generate big plays. A complete X or movement-Z, Tate will assuredly keep Ohio State’s first-round streak at WR alive, and he has impact starter ability.
