After a big win in Week 12 of the 2025 College Football season, Navy (6-1, 8-2) remains firmly in the mix when it comes to competing in the American Conference Championship Game and potentially taking part in the College Football Playoff. However, with six teams in The American having one or two losses entering Week 12 and a further four having three losses, Navy’s path to the Championship Game is convoluted.
With the help of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Navy’s chances of making it to the American Conference Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff.
Navy’s The American Conference Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Navy a 55.2% chance of playing in The American Championship Game. Their remaining conference game is at Memphis (4-3, 8-3).
Out of 4,096 potential scenarios remaining in The American, Navy can make the American Conference Championship Game in 56.6%.
In our simulations, Navy wins its two remaining games 30.5% of the time. That projection takes into account the Army-Navy game, which does not count towards Navy making the American Conference Championship Game or the College Football Playoff.
However, Navy’s remaining conference game is against Memphis, who are 4-2 in conference play and 8-2 overall. Of all the teams in contention for The American, no team has a more challenging route to the Conference Championship Game than Navy.
If Navy does win its final conference game, they have a great chance to make the American Conference Championship Game. Still, there is every chance it may rely on how things fall in terms of the American Conference tiebreakers. Out of the potential scenarios in which Navy wins its remaining game, in >90%, Navy makes it to the American Conference Championship Game.
However, The American uses the CFP Selection Committee rankings as its second tiebreaker and then a set of analytics as its third, which makes the exact tiebreaker formula hard to calculate.
There are also scenarios where even if they do not win both of their remaining games, they still make the Championship Game, but that will depend on how the American Conference tiebreakers fall.
The three most common American Conference Championship Games featuring Navy are:
1) vs. North Texas: 33.8% of scenarios
2) vs. Tulane: 11.6% of scenarios
3) vs. South Florida: 8.3% of scenarios
What are Navy’s Playoff Chances?
The playoff situation for Navy is not clear-cut because the Group of 5 conferences are only guaranteed one spot and are likely to receive only one place in 2025. Right now, The American is believed to be the conference with the best chance of taking that spot, with James Madison from the Sun Belt being the only real challenger in most people’s eyes.
To be eligible for a spot in the College Football Playoff, Navy must first win The American. Currently, our FPM gives them a 26.6% chance of winning The American and a 13.5% chance of making it into the College Football Playoff.
Entering Week 12, the only Group of 5 team for which we had a clear idea of their standing in the eyes of the CFP Selection Committee is South Florida, which was ranked No. 24 this past week. That ranking suggests The American is the frontrunner in the Group of 5, but behind South Florida, we do not know for sure how the other teams stack up against James Madison or teams from the Mountain West in the committee’s eyes.
In terms of where they would fit into the playoff if they make it, Navy is the No. 12 seed in all 13.5% of simulations where they make the playoff. That means they would travel to face the No. 5 seed in the First Round of the playoff.
Our simulations give Navy a 0.55% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 0.1% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 0.03% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
