The SEC has reached a pivotal point in the season, with just a handful of conference games remaining until the SEC Championship Game teams are decided. Heading into Week 12, seven teams were mathematically capable of reaching Atlanta, but after a remarkable weekend of action, just three remain.
With the help of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine who is still in the mix and what their chances are of making it to the postseason.
Which Teams Are Still Competing to Play in the SEC Championship Game?
After a remarkable weekend of action in the conference that prides itself on a motto of “It Just Means More,” there are actually far fewer scenarios available, and less than half the teams that entered Week 12 with a chance of reaching the SEC Championship Game are left.
When the Georgia Bulldogs obliterated the Texas Longhorns in Athens, it wiped out the Ole Miss Rebels and Oklahoma Sooners from contention. Although the Alabama Crimson Tide fell victim to their own inabilities on offense, they remain alive and in strong shape with just the Iron Bowl to come in conference play. Here are the remaining teams and their chances:
- Alabama (6-1, 8-2): 73.8%
- Texas A&M (7-0, 10-0): 73.1%
- Georgia (7-1, 9-1): 53.1%
Alabama’s SEC Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Alabama a 73.8% chance of playing in the SEC Championship Game. Their remaining conference game is at Auburn in Week 14.
Following their loss to Oklahoma, Alabama’s position within the SEC Championship Game picture became somewhat more precarious. They still control their destiny as a win against Auburn will take them to the SEC Championship Game. However, a win against Oklahoma would have meant they could have lost against Auburn and still potentially made it. That looks very unlikely now.
Just as concerning for Alabama will be that their chances of making the CFP fell to 73.8%, which means a loss to Auburn could also cost them a spot in the 12-team playoff.
Texas A&M’s SEC Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Texas A&M a 73.1% chance of playing in the SEC Championship Game. Their remaining conference game is at Texas (4-2, 7-3).
Out of 1,024 potential scenarios remaining in the SEC, Texas A&M can make the SEC Championship Game in 75.0%. If Texas A&M wins its remaining conference game, they are guaranteed to compete in the SEC Championship Game. However, a loss complicates matters for them, as Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, and Texas all now sit at one loss.
A loss in Week 14 to Texas would most likely leave Texas A&M on the outside looking in due to its weak standing among contending teams in terms of SEC tiebreakers.
To put it simply, Texas A&M needs to beat Texas in Week 14.
There is a scenario in which Ole Miss loses to Mississippi State and Alabama loses to Auburn, allowing Texas A&M to qualify even with a loss in Week 14. That would leave Texas A&M and Georgia as the only two one-loss SEC teams and, therefore, squaring off in the SEC Championship Game.
Georgia’s SEC Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Georgia a 53.1%% chance of playing in the SEC Championship Game after completing their conference schedule against Texas in Week 12.
Out of 1,024 potential scenarios remaining in the SEC, Georgia can make the SEC Championship Game in 50.0%. In those projections, the most likely matchup is against Texas A&M, which happened in 50.0% of scenarios.
How Do the SEC Championship Tiebreaker Rules Work?
If two teams are tied for first place in the standings, they will both participate in the Championship Game. However, the tiebreaking procedure outlined below will be used to determine which team is considered the home team and which is considered the road team. In the event of a tie for second place in the standings, the following process will be followed to decide who will play in the SEC Championship Game.
1) The winner of any head-to-head matchup between the two teams (if applicable).
2) Win percentage against common opponents within the conference.
3) Win percentage against common opponents based on the order of finish. This tiebreaker examines each opponent individually, progressing from top to bottom in the table. If a group of common opponents is tied, then the head-to-head tiebreaker will be applied for that tie, and if it cannot split them, the combined record against the tied teams will be used.
4) The combined record of all conference opponents for each team. If, for any reason, one team has played fewer than nine conference games, the winning percentage will be used as opposed to the record.
5) Each team’s ranking by SportsSource Analytics’ capped relative total scoring margin versus all Conference opponents among tied teams.
6) Random draw.
SEC Three (or More) Team Tiebreakers
If, after any step in the following procedure, one or two teams are either superior or inferior to the others, they are removed from the tiebreaking procedure, and the remaining teams either go to the two-team tiebreaker or return to the start of the three-team tiebreaking procedure.
1) If all teams played each other, then the records for those teams in those games would be compared.
2) If all the teams did not play each other, but one team either defeated or was defeated by ALL the other teams, they shall be removed from the tiebreaking procedure.
3) Win percentage against common opponents within the conference.
4) Winning percentage of all teams against common conference opponents among all the teams involved in the tie. This tiebreaker examines each opponent individually, progressing from top to bottom in the table. If a group of common opponents is tied, then the head-to-head tiebreaker will be applied for that tie, and if it cannot split them, the combined record against the tied teams will be used.
5) The combined record of all conference opponents for each team. If, for any reason, one team has played fewer than nine conference games, the winning percentage will be used as opposed to the record.
6) Each team’s ranking by SportsSource Analytics’ capped relative total scoring margin versus all Conference opponents among tied teams.
7) Random draw.
If multiple teams are tied for top spot in the SEC standings, and two teams emerge as superior after any step, those two teams shall contest the SEC Championship Game. A two-team tiebreaker will be applied to determine the home and road designation.
