We’re on the home stretch on the path to the Big 12 Championship, and the picture is becoming much clearer, as to which teams will be in attendance, and which teams will have to watch from home. The Big 12 hasn’t been a stranger to infighting in 2025, but two teams have separated from the pack as likely title game attendees.
Who’s in? Who’s out? And how does the path to the Big 12 Championship Game play out as the remaining games unfold?
Big 12 Championship Game Probabilities
There are no undefeated teams remaining in the Big 12, but Texas Tech and BYU stand atop the conference with one loss each, and the Red Raiders in particular have more than a few strong wins to bolster their record.
Just four of the 16 teams in the Big 12 are still mathematically in the hunt for a seat at the Big 12 Championship game. Beyond Texas Tech and BYU, Utah and Arizona State are still in the hunt following losses for the Houston Cougars and Cincinnati Bearcats in Week 13.
Below, we’ve outlined each remaining contender according to their percentage chance, both for making the conference title game and winning the conference title game.
All data comes from the PFSN College Football Playoff Meter.
- BYU: 89.7%
- Texas Tech: 89.2%
- Arizona State: 12.6%
- Utah: 8.6%
Big 12 Championship Game Winning Probability
- Texas Tech: 55.6%
- BYU: 36.5%
- Utah: 4.0%
- Arizona State: 3.9%
Texas Tech and BYU are massive favorites to battle in the Big 12 Championship game. Both have percentages well over 50% to make the big game, while the next highest team is Arizona State at 12.6%.
For Texas Tech and BYU, it would take a devastating late-season collapse to miss the big game — Utah and Arizona State will be praying for entering the final weekend of the 2025 college football season.
Latest Big 12 Standings
1) Texas Tech Red Raiders 10-1 (7-1)
2) BYU Cougars 10-1 (7-1)
3) Utah Utes 9-2 (6-2)
4) Arizona State Sun Devils 8-3 (6-2)
5) Houston Cougars 8-3 (5-3)
6) Arizona Wildcats 8-3 (5-3)
7) Cincinnati Bearcats 7-4 (5-3)
8) Iowa State Cyclones 7-4 (4-4)
9) Kansas State Wildcats 5-6 (4-4)
10) TCU Horned Frogs 7-4 (4-4)
11) Baylor Bears 5-6 (3-5)
12) Kansas Jayhawks 5-6 (3-5)
13) UCF Knights 5-6 (2-6)
14) West Virginia Mountaineers 4-7 (2-6)
15) Colorado Buffaloes 3-8 (1-7)
16) Oklahoma State Cowboys 1-10 (0-8)
Texas Tech’s Big 12 Championship Road Map
The road to the Big 12 Championship is simple for Texas Tech: If they beat 4-7 West Virginia, they’ll be in the title game. That’s reflected by their chance to make the game, which is at 89.2% per PFSN’s College FPM.
If Tech loses against West Virginia, Arizona State has a head-to-head win over Texas Tech and could leap over the Red Raiders for the final spot — but Arizona State would have to win out.
BYU’s Big 12 Championship Road Map
By winning out, BYU can secure a spot in the Big 12 Championship without issue. The team’s season-ending bout against UCF should be an easy win, especially after taming Cincinnati in Week 13. BYU holds the head-to-head advantage over Utah if they do slip in Week 14, but an Arizona State win with losses for BYU and Utah would knock the Cougars out.
Utah’s Big 12 Championship Road Map
Utah has head-to-head losses against BYU and Texas Tech — the two front-runners for the Big 12 Championship game — so even if the Utes win out, it’s not a guarantee that they’ll have a chance to make the title showcase. After casting aside Kansas State in Week 13, they need to beat Kansas and hope that Texas Tech loses and Arizona State and BYU both win.
Arizona State’s Big 12 Championship Road Map
Arizona State has two losses, but the Sun Devils also have an ace up their sleeve: A head-to-head victory over Texas Tech. That marks Arizona State’s clearest path to the Big 12 Championship. If the Red Raiders lose to West Virginia, ASU can pass them by winning out.
Additionally, if BYU loses out, and Utah loses one of their two remaining games, Arizona State could also get in as a competitor to Texas Tech — but a lot needs to go right for the Sun Devils to manifest that outcome, and Arizona won’t be an easy out in late November.
