The fourth edition of the College Football Playoff Rankings has arrived, and with Rivalry Week looming, the calm before the storm is officially here. What looks stable today could be flipped upside down in just a few days. For now, though, we can break down where things stand: the week’s winners, the clear losers, and the teams still clinging to hope on the bubble.
The bracket is almost set. The drama is far from over.
Winners
Tulane Keeps the Group of Five Lead
Tulane remains the highest-ranked Group of Five team, holding firm ahead of North Texas and James Madison. More importantly, the Green Wave completely controls its own destiny.
Win this weekend.
>Win the AAC title game.
>Punch the ticket as the G5 representative.
Tulane fans can’t ask for a simpler scenario. And according to the PFSN Playoff Meter, they sit at a healthy 54.77% chance to make the CFP, tops among all G5 contenders.
Oregon Moves Up to No. 6
Oregon’s rise to No. 6 after taking down USC feels like a confirmation: the Ducks are essentially in the playoff, no matter what happens against Washington. Their résumé, their dominance, and the gap between them and the last at-large spot gives them a cushion.
PFSN agrees: Oregon boasts a 100% playoff probability entering Rivalry Week.
ACC’s Chances for a Two-Bid Season Increase
This looked impossible a month ago, but the ACC suddenly has a path to two CFP bids.
Miami climbing to No. 12 has created real intrigue. While they’re technically on the outside looking in, the Hurricanes are now in direct comparison with Notre Dame and could leap the Irish depending on how the next two weeks unfold.
Meanwhile, Virginia (44.66%) and SMU (34.54%), the likely ACC title contenders, are positioned to grab the conference’s automatic bid. Add Miami into the mix for an at-large, and the league has a better chance at multiple bids than anyone expected in October.
The odds are slim, but they’re no longer laughable.
Losers
Utah Slips Behind Miami
Utah falling below Miami was a crushing blow to their postseason hopes. With stronger résumés rising behind them and no major wins left to grab, the Utes are on life support in the playoff conversation. PFSN gives them just a 3.86% chance to reach the CFP, essentially requiring a miracle.
Week 13 Chaos (or Lack Thereof)
This week offered almost no surprises. The SEC mostly played “cupcake week,” and the rest of the national slate was light on marquee matchups. Nearly every ranked team won the game they were supposed to win.
The result? A chalky rankings release with minimal shakeup. But don’t expect that trend to continue. Rivalry Week has a long history of madness, and a single upset could collapse an entire section of the bracket.
Teams on the CFP Bubble
Texas (16)
Texas still has a pulse, albeit a faint one. A win over No. 3 Texas A&M would be massive, but the Longhorns need more than that. They need chaos above them, and plenty of it. Their playoff odds are realistically in the low single digits, but still a possibility as the first 3-loss team due to their tough schedule.
Michigan (15)
The Wolverines’ situation is simple: Win The Game against Ohio State, and everything changes. Easier said than done, but they’ve won the past four matchups, so a fifth isn’t far-fetched. Beating the No. 1 team in the country would instantly become the nation’s strongest résumé booster and rocket Michigan right back into the debate.
PFSN gives Michigan an 8.92% shot entering the week. Low, but significantly higher than most teams in their range.
Vanderbilt (14)
Vanderbilt is this year’s chaos agent, mathematically alive, spiritually unkillable.
To get in, the Commodores must beat Tennessee and see madness unfold around them. An Auburn upset of Alabama, for example, is a bare-minimum requirement for Vandy to sneak into the bracket. Their odds: 8.31%, but that’s still a heartbeat.
BYU (11)
BYU remains one of the strongest bubble teams, needing to win the Big 12 in what is likely a rematch against Texas Tech. Their résumé isn’t spectacular, but their conference title pathway very much is. PFSN currently gives the Cougars a 61.42% chance, the best probability of any bubble team outside the top 10.
Final Thoughts: Calm Before the Chaos
Week 13 didn’t deliver the shockwaves fans hoped for, but Week 14 will almost surely oblige. With rivalry games, conference title spots, and playoff dreams all converging, the bracket could look nothing like this by next Tuesday.
For Tulane, Oregon, and Miami, the path is clearing.
For Utah, the road is closing.
For Texas, Michigan, Vanderbilt, and BYU, hope remains, but the margin for error is gone.
The next week may be the wildest yet.
