Fantasy football is all about finding an edge before everyone else catches on. Each week brings new opportunities in changing backfields and evolving game plans, even when recent box scores look disappointing.
Sometimes the best moves come from leaning into uncertainty instead of chasing last week’s production. This intro sets the stage for highlighting a few under-the-radar plays and one risky volume trap without giving anything away.
Start ‘Em: Sean Tucker, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. ARI)
Fresh off his breakout 34-point effort, Sean Tucker predictably flopped in a miserable matchup against what very well may be the best team in football. The Los Angeles Rams completely stymied the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offense even before Baker Mayfield injured his shoulder.
Tucker managed a mere 5.6 fantasy points, likely leaving fantasy managers ready to cast him aside, especially in light of Bucky Irving’s expected return this week. Not so fast.
Hopefully, Mayfield can go. Obviously, everything about this offense will look pretty grim if Teddy Bridgewater has to start. The Rams probably made him look worse than he is, but Bridgewater looked completely lost out there, and we should be afraid of everything Bucs if he has to start.
But even if it is Bridgewater, that just means the Bucs will have to get creative and try and lean more on the ground game.
Irving is not about to come back to his pre-injury role. He may end up getting there, but it will take time. For at least a week or two, this will likely be an ugly three-man split between him, Tucker, and Rachaad White.
Tucker may have only played 37% of the snaps on Sunday night, but two things were at play. First, the Bucs saw extreme negative game script from the jump, which meant more White. Second, they pulled starters in the second half of the fourth quarter. Both Tucker and White sat out the final two drives.
Tucker still saw 12 carries and two targets compared to eight opportunities for White. He may very well be the RB2 behind Irving once things get settled.
For this week, Tucker should have the advantage against the Arizona Cardinals. They are fresh off allowing Travis Etienne Jr. to post his first 20-point game of the season and are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to running backs.
RJ Harvey, Denver Broncos (at WAS)
It’s obviously very unfortunate that JK Dobbins is lost for the season. That was supposed to lead to increased production from RJ Harvey, though. In his first game as the lead back, that didn’t happen.
Fantasy managers may be turned off by Harvey’s dismal 8.0-point effort against the Chiefs in Week 11. However, there were positives from that game.
Harvey may not have gotten there on the scoreboard, but he was the clear lead back. The rookie played 61% of the snaps and saw 14 opportunities. Had he found the end zone, no one would be complaining.
This feels like the week Harvey truly arrives. Denver is coming off their bye to face a Washington Commanders defense allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to running backs.
This is a game the Broncos should have a positive game script and be able to control with the ground game and defense. Essentially, they should be able to execute the exact offense game plan Sean Payton wants to. Look for Harvey to touch the ball 15+ times and score this week.
Kenneth Gainwell, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. BUF)
It should go without saying that Jaylen Warren is a great start this week. He’s a top 12 option. There’s not much benefit in saying to start Warren. The value lies in informing fantasy managers that they can fire up Kenneth Gainwell as well.
Warren remains the lead back, but his stranglehold on this backfield has slipped. Gainwell has now played over 50% of the snaps in three consecutive games.
READ MORE: Katz’s Fantasy Football Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Picks for Week 13: Sean Tucker, Brian Thomas Jr., Aaron Jones Sr., and Others
Last week, Gainwell had 16 touches for the second straight game. He’s now caught 13 passes over his last two, essentially serving as the No. 2 option in the passing game behind DK Metcalf.
The Buffalo Bills are not a scary defense, especially against running backs. They’re allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to the position. You know Mike Tomlin and Arthur Smith want to run the ball as much as possible. They should be able to do just that against the Bills, allowing both Warren and Gainwell to be fantasy viable.
Sit ‘Em: Aaron Jones Sr., Minnesota Vikings (at SEA)
The reality is anything Vikings could go in this section. Fire this entire offense into the sun.
Kevin O’Connell was able to make it work with the likes of Joshua Dobbs, Nick Mullens, and Jaren Hall. He is supposedly the QB whisperer. But even he can’t make lemonade out of whatever J.J. McCarthy is. Unfortunately, that drags the entire offense down.
Aaron Jones Sr. has completely retaken control of this backfield. He’s now played at least 65% of the snaps in three straight games. But what is he supposed to do on an offense that can’t move the ball?
Now, Jones has to contend with a Seahawks defense allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs.
This is a pass funnel defense. In theory, Minnesota should throw the ball more to try to beat them. But we know they don’t want to do that with McCarthy. So, the Vikings will try and pound it into Seattle’s stout front seven, and it will not work. Expect a whole lot of empty volume for Jones this week.
