Entering Week 14, the MAC Championship Game scenarios still had five potential teams that could fill the two available spots in Detroit. We saw one team clinch on Tuesday night, but now we will have to wait until Saturday to see how the complete picture plays out.
With the help of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine who is still in the mix and what their chances are of making it to the postseason.
Which Teams Are Still Competing to Play in the MAC Championship Game?
Entering the final week, five teams can still make it. Let’s take a look at the teams who are still in the mix, and their respective MAC Conference Game chances:
- Western Michigan (7-1, 8-4): 100%
- Miami (OH) (5-2, 6-5): 52.8%
- Toledo (5-2, 7-4): 31.3%
- Central Michigan (5-2, 7-4): 11.0%
- Ohio (5-2, 6-4): 5.2%
These are the remaining games in the MAC in 2025:
- Buffalo vs. Ohio
Friday, November 28 at 12:00 p.m. ET - Northern Illinois vs. Kent State
Friday, November 28 at 12:00 p.m. ET - Central Michigan vs. Toledo
Saturday, November 29 at 12:00 p.m. ET - Miami (OH) vs. Ball State
Saturday, November 29 at 12:00 p.m. ET
Western Michigan’s MAC Championship Game Chances
Western Michigan has clinched a spot in the MAC Championship Game. Their win over Eastern Michigan on Tuesday meant they finished with a 7-1 record, which cannot be matched by anyone else in the conference.
Western Michigan could face any of Toledo, Miami (OH), Central Michigan, or Ohio in the MAC Championship Game, depending on the outcome of various Week 14 results. Across our 50,000 simulations, Western Michigan finishes as champions of the MAC in 2025 in 55.3% of scenarios.
Among their possible opponents, the only teams rated higher in PFSN College Football Power Rankings are Toledo. Therefore, Western Michigan will be favored in every matchup except against Toledo. Still, the two teams rank so similarly that our matchup analysis has the game as a near 50-50 matchup, with a slight lean toward Toledo.
Miami (OH)’s MAC Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Miami (OH) a 52.6% chance of playing in the MAC Championship Game. Their remaining conference game is vs. Ball State. The PFSN College FPM gives them a 68.1% chance of winning that game.
Miami (OH) is not guaranteed to make the MAC Conference Championship Game if it wins its last game. However, there are only four scenarios where Miami (OH) does not make the MAC Championship Game with a win. The common factor in all those scenarios is Western Michigan, Buffalo, and Toledo winning in Week 14.
If those three results all go against them, Miami (OH) would miss out due to being in a two-way tiebreaker with Toledo, which beat them earlier this year.
If Miami (OH) and Toledo both win, they need Ohio to win. The confusing element is that Miami (OH) lost to both Toledo and Ohio, but the MAC tiebreakers do not eliminate teams that were swept by both of the other tiebreaker teams. The tiebreakers only advance a team that swept the others.
Therefore, if Ohio wins, it negates the head-to-head element with Toledo. Then Miami (OH) would win the three-way tiebreaker with a 3-0 record against common opponents compared to 2-1 for Toledo and 1-2 for Ohio (Ball State, Western Michigan, and Northern Illinois).
If Central Michigan beats Toledo, then Miami (OH) is guaranteed to make it with a win. It does not matter whether it is a two-way tiebreaker with Central Michigan, a three-way tiebreaker with either Ohio or Western Michigan, or a four-way tiebreaker involving all three potential tiebreak opponents.
There are no scenarios where Miami (OH) can lose in Week 14 and still make the MAC Championship Game. One of Toledo or Central Michigan is guaranteed to get to 6-2, so Miami (OH) would miss out at 5-3 if they lose.
Toledo’s MAC Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Toledo a 31.3% chance of playing in the MAC Championship Game. Their remaining conference game is at Central Michigan. The PFSN College FPM gives them a 49.6% chance of winning that game.
Toledo is not guaranteed to make the MAC Championship Game if it wins in Week 14. Toledo needs at least one of Ohio or Miami (OH) to lose for them to make the MAC Championship Game. In a two-way tiebreaker, they have the head-to-head over Miami (OH) and a better common opponent tiebreaker over Ohio.
A three-way tiebreaker is a no-go because Miami (OH) would be 3-0 against common opponents with both Toledo and Ohio.
Here are the scenarios that Toledo needs to play out in Week 14 to make the MAC Championship Game:
1) Toledo wins, and Ball State wins. If these two results play out, it does not matter what happens in the other games. If Ohio also loses, Toledo is one of only two teams at 6-2 or better. If Ohio wins, Toledo has the tiebreaker, having beaten Ball State, whom Ohio lost to.
2) Toledo wins, Miami (OH) wins, and Buffalo wins. In a two-way tiebreaker with Miami (OH), they have the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Toledo cannot make the MAC Championship Game if it loses in Week 14.
Central Michigan’s MAC Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Central Michigan an 11.0% chance of playing in the MAC Championship Game. Their remaining conference game is vs. Toledo. The PFSN College FPM gives them a 50.4% chance of winning that game.
Central Michigan cannot be assured of making the MAC Championship Game. The simplest scenario for them to make it would be for them to win and for both Ohio and Miami (OH) to lose, leaving Central Michigan as the only team at 6-2.
In a two-way tie with Ohio, they currently have a better conference strength of schedule, but that could change with a specific set of results, meaning it would come down to SportsSource analytic rankings. A two-way tie with Miami (OH) will break in favor of Miami (OH), as would a three-way tiebreaker with Ohio and Miami (OH). Miami (OH) has better results against common opponents in both a two and a three-way tiebreaker.
Here are the scenarios that Central Michigan needs to play out to make the MAC Championship Game:
1) Central Michigan wins, and both Ohio and Miami (OH) lose. In this scenario, Central Michigan would be 6-2, and only Western Michigan would have a 6-2 record or better.
2) Central Michigan wins, Ohio wins, Kent State wins, and Miami (OH) loses. In this scenario, Central Michigan and Ohio would be at 6-2, and Central Michigan would have the tiebreak advantage based on conference strength of schedule.
3) Central Michigan wins, Ohio wins, and Miami (OH) loses. In this scenario, Central Michigan and Ohio would be at 6-2, and they would be level on conference strength of schedule. It would then come down to both teams’ rankings, as determined by SportsSource analytics.
There are no scenarios in which Central Michigan can lose its final game and make it to the MAC Championship Game.
Ohio’s MAC Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Ohio a 5.2% chance of playing in the MAC Championship Game. Their remaining conference game is at Buffalo. The PFSN College FPM gives them a 53.5% chance of winning their remaining match.
Ohio is not guaranteed to make the MAC Championship Game if it beats Buffalo. In fact, there are only six scenarios out of a possible 32 where they win and make it. For Ohio to make the MAC Championship Game, they need the following to happen:
- They beat Buffalo
- Central Michigan beats Toledo
- Northern Illinois beats Kent State
- Miami (OH) loses
Even if those scenarios do play out, it will ultimately come down to the SportSource analytics tiebreaker between them and Central Michigan, making it challenging to predict how that outcome could unfold. In PFSN’s College Power rankings, Ohio is slightly superior to Central Michigan, but it is very close and could easily change in Week 14.
Once Toledo won on Saturday, it complicated Ohio’s path to the MAC Championship Game. They needed the ability to get into a two-way tiebreaker with Miami (OH), and that is now gone, as Toledo or Central Michigan is assured of reaching a 6-2 record.
The problem for Ohio is that Toledo and Central Michigan both have tiebreaker advantages over them. Toledo has the better record against a common opponent in Ball State, while Central Michigan has a slight edge in conference strength of schedule. However, that could be offset by Northern Illinois winning, which would push it to the SportSource tiebreaker.
There is no scenario in which Ohio can lose to Buffalo and still make the MAC Championship Game.
MAC Tiebreakers
Two-team tiebreakers
If two teams are tied for first place in the standings, they will both participate in the Championship Game. However, the tiebreaking procedure outlined below will be used to determine which team is considered the home team and which is considered the road team. In the event of a tie for second place in the standings, the following process will be used to determine who will advance to the MAC Championship Game.
1) The winner of any head-to-head matchup between the two teams (if applicable).
2) Win percentage against all common opponents.
3) Win percentage versus common opponents based on their order of finish (overall conference win percentage, with ties broken), and then moving through other common opponents based on order of finish.
4) Combined conference win percentage of each team’s conference opponent.
5) The highest ranking by SportsSource Analytics’ Team Rating Score following the regular season.
6) Random draw.
Three (or More) Team Tiebreakers
If, after any step in the following procedure, one or two teams are either superior or inferior to the others, they are removed from the tiebreaking procedure, and the remaining teams either go to the two-team tiebreaker or return to the start of the three-team tiebreaking procedure.
1) If all teams played each other, then the records for those teams in those games would be compared.
2) If all the teams did not play each other, but one team either defeated or was defeated by ALL the other teams, they shall be removed from the tiebreaking procedure.
3) Win percentage against all common opponents.
4) Win percentage versus common opponents based on their order of finish (overall conference win percentage, with ties broken), and then moving through other common opponents based on order of finish.
5) Combined conference win percentage of each team’s conference opponent.
6) Each team’s ranking by SportsSource Analytics’ Team Rating Score following the regular season.
7) Random draw.
If multiple teams are tied for top spot in the MAC standings, and two teams emerge as superior after any step, those two teams shall contest the MAC Championship Game. A two-team tiebreaker will be applied to determine the home and road designation.
