Entering Week 14 of the 2025 College Football season, the Utah Utes were still mathematically capable of reaching the Big 12 Championship Game and the CFB Playoffs. There was a lot that needed to happen for that eventuality, but after taking care of business in Lawrence, what are the chances of the Utes achieving either?
With the use of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Utah’s chances of making it to the Big 12 Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff.
Utah’s Big 12 Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Utah an 8.7% chance of playing in the Big 12 Championship game after beating the Jayhawks in their season finale. While the final score was fairly convincing, it was a much closer game than that scoreline suggests, giving Utes fans anxious moments in Week 14.
It’s been a strong year for the Utes under Kyle Whittingham — but still, they’re on the outside looking in for Big 12 title real estate. They sit at 10-2 overall and 7-2 in the conference, with head-to-head losses against both Texas Tech and BYU.
As long as both Texas Tech and BYU win, Utah is out of the Big 12 Championship. If one of Texas Tech and BYU wins, and Arizona State loses, Utah is still ruled out through the head-to-head tiebreaker against both Texas Tech and BYU.
The best outcome for Utah is if Texas Tech loses, while BYU and Arizona State win. If Tech and Arizona State enter a three-way tie with Utah, Utah can win that tiebreaker with its conference opponent winning percentage and take the second spot alongside BYU.
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It seems odd that Utah would be rooting for Arizona State and not Arizona to pull off the upset, but an Arizona State loss increases the likelihood that one of Texas Tech or BYU would face a head-to-head tie against Utah. In that scenario, Utah loses both times.
What are Utah’s Playoff Chances?
There are two routes into the College Football Playoff for teams: win their conference championship game or be an at-large team. Utah can only make the CFB Playoffs by winning the Big 12 Championship.
The PFSN College FPM gives Utah a 3.9% chance of making the College Football Playoff, and a 3.9% chance of winning the Big 12 Championship. That confirms that if they do not win the Big 12 title, they will be eliminated from the extended postseason.
Utah is currently ranked 13th in the CFP Selection Committee rankings. They’re not as far outside of At-Large territory as you would think, given their low probability of making the big dance — but they don’t have the statement win needed to lift them into safe territory.
Utah’s best win came against an Arizona State squad reeling from the recent loss of quarterback Sam Leavitt. Under Whittingham, the Utes are well-coached, and they’re not going to drop many winnable games. That’s been evident in their consistency against lower-ranked competition — but they also haven’t elevated when needed.
That state of being has ultimately placed the Utes where they are now: In good standing, but not good enough to be in control of their own destiny — and as a result, potentially doomed to exclusion from the table of the elites.
Our simulations also give Utah a 1.6% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 0.5% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 0.1% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
