Entering Week 14 of the 2025 College Football season, the Michigan Wolverine’s Big Ten Championship and CFB Playoff hopes are hanging by a thread — but there’s still an outcome where Sherrone Moore’s squad beats the odds.
With the use of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Michigan’s chances of making it to the Big Ten Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff.
Michigan’s Big Ten Championship Game Chances
The Wolverines did everything they could to at least stay in the conversation in Week 13, with a 45-20 victory over the Maryland Terrapins. It was a nice bounce-back performance after a near-loss against Northwestern nearly ended their hopes entirely.
Still, it’ll be an uphill battle for Michigan. PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Michigan a 2.7% chance of playing in the Big Ten Championship game. Their remaining conference game is a home contest against bitter rival Ohio State (11-0, 8-0).
After 11 games, it’s all come down to this. The undefeated Ohio State Buckeyes — who have dominated all year, and have averaged a margin of victory of over 30 points — will go to Ann Arbor to take on the 9-2 Wolverines.
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With a victory, Michigan gets one of the strongest statement wins of the year, but they’re not even guaranteed to make the Big Ten title game. If Oregon beats Washington, they’ll be in instead. But if Oregon loses to the Huskies, the door is open for Michigan to pull off the impossible.
With a loss to Ohio State, however, Michigan is out of the title game, and is likely out of the CFB Playoff as well.
The stakes have never been higher for the 2025 Wolverines. Last year, they were able to score the upset victory over Ohio State in Columbus. But many would argue that this Ohio State team — with Julian Sayin, Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate, and a potentially generational defense — is a completely different animal.
What are Michigan’s Playoff Chances?
There are two routes into the College Football Playoff for teams: win their conference championship game or be an at-large team. Michigan still has a small percentage chance to make it in either category, but they need an improbable win against OSU to even have a chance at manifesting it.
The PFSN College FPM gives Michigan an 8.3% chance of making the College Football Playoff, but just a 0.7% chance of winning the Big Ten Championship. That leaves a 7.6% chance of Michigan being an At-Large bid.
Michigan is currently ranked 18th in the CFP Selection Committee rankings. They’re outside At-Large territory right now, and a loss against Ohio State would seal their fate. PFSN’s CFB FPM gives Ohio State a near-70% of beating Michigan.
However, if Michigan beats Ohio State and makes the title game, they could still make the CFB Playoffs even with a Big Ten Championship loss.
A 10-3 record with a win against the Buckeyes and losses against CFB Playoff contenders Oklahoma and USC is a respectable resume, and one that could help Michigan gain playoff real estate, if they get help from competitors losing.
Michigan’s best chance, of course, is to win the title game — but that would demand that they beat Ohio State, get help with a loss from Oregon, and then beat Indiana in the title game: A tall task for a Michigan team that’s been inconsistent at an operational level in 2025.
In short, it’s extremely improbable — but still not quite impossible.
Our simulations also give Michigan a 1.4% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 0.5% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 0.2% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
