The American Conference has been one of the more fascinating stories this College Football season, with many expecting the winner to get a College Football Playoff spot as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. Three teams remained in the mix entering the final weekend of the year, but which two booked their place in the title game?
Using the PFSN College Football Playoff Meter (FPM) and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s break down the scenarios and chances for the teams in with a shot.
Which Teams Are Still Competing to Play in the American Conference Championship Game?
The American Conference Championship Game is set after the Tulane Green Wave and North Texas Mean Green won in Week 14. Although the Navy Midshipmen also won, separate tiebreak scenarios played against them. Tulane will host the American Conference Championship Game at Yulman Stadium.
Below, you can find all the situations and scenarios that led us to this lineup for the American Championship Game.
- North Texas (7-1, 11-1): 100%
- Tulane (7-1, 10-2): 100.%
- Navy (7-1, 9-2): 0%
Before we dive into the complete scenarios, it is worth stating that scenarios for the American Championship Game are complicated by the tiebreakers they use. Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker, but if that does not break the tie, it is based on the College Football Playoff Committee rankings as of the start of Week 14. If that does not resolve the tie, it is based on a combination of rankings from four different analytics services.
Entering Week 14, Tulane was the only team currently ranked by the CFP Selection Committee. This means that if they win in Week 14, they are guaranteed to win any tiebreaker that is not resolved by head-to-head results. Given they have not faced North Texas or Navy this season, any tie between those three teams would then fall their way.
Tulane’s American Conference Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Tulane an 86.3% chance of playing in the American Championship Game. Their remaining conference game is vs. Charlotte. The PFSN College FPM has them winning that game in 86.3% of simulations.
Tulane is in a great position because it knows that a win guarantees it a spot in the American Championship Game. At 7-1, North Texas and Navy can only tie with them. As the highest-ranked team from the conference in the College Football Playoff Selection Committee rankings, Tulane would be guaranteed to win any tiebreaker.
If Tulane wins, they will also be guaranteed to host the American Championship Game at Yulman Stadium in New Orleans.
If Tulane loses, it will be eliminated from the American Championship Game and any chance of making the College Football Playoff.
North Texas’s American Conference Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives North Texas a 100% chance of playing in the American Championship Game.
The reason for that is that even if Tulane also wins, Tulane would win the three-way tiebreaker courtesy of being the highest-ranked team from the conference in the CFP Selection Committee rankings. Then the tiebreaker would revert to the top for a two-way tiebreaker between North Texas and Navy, which North Texas would win due to its head-to-head victory over Navy earlier in the year.
If Tulane loses, North Texas will host the American Championship Game at DATCU Stadium in Denton.
Navy’s American Conference Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Navy a 13.7% chance of playing in the American Championship Game. There is nothing left for them to control, and they are now relying on the results of other teams to determine whether they make the American Championship Game.
For Navy to make the American Conference Championship, they need to hope that Tulane loses. If all three teams are at 7-1, then Navy will miss out. Tulane would win the three-way tiebreaker based on being the highest-ranked team in the conference in the CFP Selection Committee rankings. Then North Texas would win the head-to-head over Navy based on their head-to-head result this year.
MORE: Strength of Schedule for All 136 FBS College Football Teams
Navy cannot host the American Championship Game. If they make it, they will travel to DATCU Stadium to face North Texas.
Navy also plays Army in Week 16, which is a game between two teams in The American, but it is not a conference game in terms of the standings, and is played after the conference championship game is played.
East Carolina’s American Conference Championship Game Chances
East Carolina has been eliminated from the American Championship Game. With Navy and North Texas winning, they are 7-1, and the best record East Carolina can achieve is 6-2.
South Florida’s American Conference Championship Game Chances
South Florida has been eliminated from the American Championship Game. With Navy and North Texas winning, they are 7-1, and the best record South Florida can achieve is 6-2.
How Do the American Conference Championship Tiebreaker Rules Work?
If two teams are tied for first place in the standings, they will both participate in the Championship Game. However, the tiebreaking procedure outlined below will be used to determine which team is considered the home team and which is considered the road team. In the event of a tie for second place in the standings, the following process will be used to determine who will advance to the American Conference Championship Game.
- The winner of any head-to-head matchup between the two teams (if applicable).
If there is no head-to-head, things vary depending on how many teams (if any) were ranked in the most recent CFP Selection Committee rankings before the final week of the season.
- If one of the teams was ranked in the last CFP Selection Committee rankings and does not lose in the final weekend of regular-season Conference play, they will win the tiebreaker.
- If one of the teams was ranked in the last CFP Selection Committee rankings and they lose in the final weekend of regular-season Conference play, a composite average of the following computer metrics will be used to determine the winner: Connolly SP+, SportSource TR116 SOR, ESPN SOR, and KPI.
- If both of the teams were ranked in the last CFP Selection Committee rankings, the higher-ranked team that does not lose in the final weekend of regular-season Conference play will win the tiebreaker.
- If both of the teams were ranked in the last CFP Selection Committee rankings and both lose in the final weekend of regular-season Conference play, a composite average of the following computer metrics will be used to determine the winner: Connolly SP+, SportSource TR116 SOR, ESPN SOR, and KPI.
- If neither of the teams was ranked in the last CFP Selection Committee rankings, a composite average of the following computer metrics will be used to determine the winner: Connolly SP+, SportSource TR116 SOR, ESPN SOR, and KPI.
If the teams remain tied after this process, the following tiebreakers are used:
1) Win percentage against all common conference opponents.
2) The team with the highest overall winning percentage, including both conference and non-conference games (excluding exempt games).
3) Coin toss.
The American Conference Three (or More) Team Tiebreakers
If, after any step in the following procedure, one or two teams are either superior or inferior to the others, they are removed from the tiebreaking procedure, and the remaining teams either go to the two-team tiebreaker or return to the start of the three-team tiebreaking procedure.
1) If all teams played each other, then the records for those teams in those games would be compared.
2) If all the teams did not play each other, but one team either defeated or was defeated by ALL the other teams, they shall be removed from the tiebreaking procedure.
If there is no head-to-head resolution, things vary depending on how many teams (if any) were ranked in the most recent CFP Selection Committee rankings before the final week of the season.
- If one of the teams was ranked in the last CFP Selection Committee rankings and does not lose in the final weekend of regular-season Conference play, they will win the tiebreaker.
- If one of the teams was ranked in the last CFP Selection Committee rankings and they lose in the final weekend of regular-season Conference play, a composite average of the following computer metrics will be used to determine the winner: Connolly SP+, SportSource TR116 SOR, ESPN SOR, and KPI.
- If both of the teams were ranked in the last CFP Selection Committee rankings, the higher-ranked team that does not lose in the final weekend of regular-season Conference play will win the tiebreaker.
- If both of the teams were ranked in the last CFP Selection Committee rankings and both lose in the final weekend of regular-season Conference play, a composite average of the following computer metrics will be used to determine the winner: Connolly SP+, SportSource TR116 SOR, ESPN SOR, and KPI.
- If neither of the teams was ranked in the last CFP Selection Committee rankings, a composite average of the following computer metrics will be used to determine the winner: Connolly SP+, SportSource TR116 SOR, ESPN SOR, and KPI.
If the teams remain tied after this process, the following tiebreakers are used:
1) Win percentage against all common conference opponents.
2) The team with the highest overall winning percentage, including both conference and non-conference games (excluding exempt games).
3) Random draw.
If multiple teams are tied for top spot in The American standings, and two teams emerge as superior after any step, those two teams shall contest The American Championship Game. A two-team tiebreaker will be applied to determine the home and road designation.
