The conversation surrounding Notre Dame and the College Football Playoff is always intriguing, given its Independent status. With no conference schedule or conference championship game, their only route into the College Football Playoff is as an at-large bid. With two losses to start the 2025 season, they have essentially been playing playoff football for the last three months, but will that continue into December and January?
With the help of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Notre Dame’s chances of making it to the CFB Playoff.
What are Notre Dame’s Playoff Chances?
Entering Week 14, the PFSN College FPM gives Notre Dame an 86.8% chance of making it to the College Football Playoff. With a Week 14 win, Notre Dame will be 10-2, boasting top-tier wins over USC and Pittsburgh, while their losses came against Texas A&M and Miami, two teams currently ranked in the top 12.
The Fighting Irish enter this week ranked ninth in the College Football Playoff Selection Committee Rankings, a spot they have held for the last three weeks, after ranking 10th in the first ranking released on November 4.
That ranking puts Notre Dame right on the bubble of the College Football Playoff. Of the 12-team playoff, five are auto bids for the five highest-ranked conference champions. That leaves seven spots for at-large teams, which essentially means Notre Dame needs two of the teams ranked above it to secure an auto bid, or for those teams to drop below it in the rankings.
That is where things get tricky, because there is a legitimate path for all four conference winners to be teams currently ranked below Notre Dame. However, the most likely outcome is that the Big Ten winner will be a team currently ranked above them, or one of those teams may fall below them in the rankings.
Let’s examine the various scenarios that could play out conference by conference.
If one of Ohio State (1) or Indiana (2) stumbles this week, Oregon makes the Big Ten Championship Game with a win, where they face the one that does not stumble. If Oregon (6) loses and fails to capitalize on a stumble, it would likely drop below Notre Dame anyway. The potential issue for Notre Dame from the Big Ten is Michigan (15).
If Michigan beats Ohio State, they could climb up close to Notre Dame, and potentially even above them. If Michigan wins and either Indiana or Oregon loses, then Michigan will advance to the Big Ten Conference Championship Game, where it could potentially secure an automatic bid.
The nightmare scenario for Notre Dame is that Michigan beats Ohio State, jumps Notre Dame in the rankings, but does not make the Big Ten Championship Game. That would potentially see four Big Ten teams in the playoff ahead of Notre Dame, three at-large bids, and one automatic bid.
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The SEC is Notre Dame’s biggest headache. Right now, they are ranked below Texas A&M (3), Georgia (4), Ole Miss (7), and Oklahoma (8). They are ahead of Alabama (10), Vanderbilt (14), Texas (16), and Tennessee (19). The issues here are plentiful based on the various scenarios.
There is a path where all four teams ranked above them win in Week 14, but if Alabama also wins, it goes to the SEC Championship Game. If Alabama were to beat Texas A&M, it is unlikely that Texas A&M would fall below Notre Dame, given that Texas A&M won their head-to-head earlier this year. That would potentially put five SEC teams over Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff picture.
There is also a situation where Texas beats Texas A&M, and then Alabama faces Georgia or Ole Miss in the SEC Championship Game. Texas A&M would be unlikely to drop below Notre Dame with one loss, but it would add credence to the argument that Texas climbs back up into the top 10 and potentially above Notre Dame.
If Alabama wins the SEC Championship Game, we could have six teams above Notre Dame in the playoff conversation. This path is unlikely, but with Texas A&M ranked so high, currently undefeated, and having a head-to-head over Notre Dame, it is possible. It is doubtful six SEC teams would make the College Football playoff, but it is not completely out of the question.
We have not even discussed whether Vanderbilt could leapfrog Notre Dame with a dominant win over Tennessee. Still, there are scenarios where we could see seven SEC teams ranked above Notre Dame if the committee feels they have a tougher schedule and higher-quality wins on their resume than Notre Dame.
In the Big 12, the complication comes if BYU makes the Big 12 Championship Game and beats a one-loss Texas Tech (5). Would that be enough to drop Texas Tech below Notre Dame? They would surely spark a conversation about whether top-10 teams should withdraw from conference championship games to preserve their place in the College Football Playoff.
It is tough to see the committee “punishing” Texas Tech for playing an extra game compared to Notre Dame by dropping them out of the playoff because they lost to BYU (11). That would put two teams from the Big 12 above Notre Dame in the playoff picture.
The ACC is a bit simpler because we can simply pencil in that whichever of their teams wins the championship will be ranked lower than Notre Dame, as all of them are currently. The only team that really has a case to leapfrog Notre Dame in the rankings is Miami (12), which beat the Fighting Irish earlier this year.
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Miami faces Pittsburgh this week, and beating the 22nd-ranked Panthers could help them make a case to climb above the team they beat earlier this year. One of Miami’s losses came against another top-25 team in SMU, and a Louisville team that was ranked a couple of weeks ago.
What would be interesting is if the committee ranked Miami ahead of Notre Dame, and then they were to lose the ACC Championship Game. Would they then be able to drop them, given the relative lack of strength of the ACC compared to the rest of the Power Four? Or would they be nervous about that precedent of punishing a team for making the conference championship?
We already know the best Group of Five team will be ranked below Notre Dame. Currently, the highest-ranked team is Tulane, who sit 24th.
That essentially means we are looking at 10 spots, three of which will be reserved for the champions of the Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC. As we said earlier, if Notre Dame stays ninth with a win this week, it would need two of the eight teams above it to secure automatic bids or drop below it in the ranking.
Ideally for Notre Dame, Indiana and Ohio State win this week and compete for the Big Ten title. That locks up one of those spots. Alabama losing this week would also lock in a second automatic spot among Georgia, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M. That would be enough for Notre Dame if they retain that ninth spot after the next two weekends.
Texas A&M and Ohio State winning in Week 14 would also stop two teams in Michigan and Texas from climbing the rankings, removing two of those threats. Those are the two biggest dangers in Week 14 because they are facing teams ranked in the top three. Vanderbilt beating the 19th-ranked team in Tennessee is good, but it does not guarantee they will jump Notre Dame.
Ultimately, all Notre Dame can do is win out and then hope for a few scenarios to fall their way. With the way college football sets its playoff teams, nothing is guaranteed for Notre Dame, and there will be a lot of nervous people tuning in on Tuesday to find out where the Fighting Irish sit entering Week 15 and who they will need to root for.
